The first 11 months of profitability skyrocketed, fund managers have to lower their expectations |

Summary

[Los administradores de fondos tienen que reducir sus expectativas para el desempeño de los primeros 11 meses.]2020 is entering the final month. Since the beginning of this year, public funds have achieved substantial growth in both performance and scale. According to statistics from Oriental Wealth Choice, thanks to structural stock prices, common stock funds and hybrid partial stock funds have achieved returns of 45.1% and 44% in the first 11 months. (China Business News)

2020 enters the last month. since this year,Public offerbackgroundIf it’s aboutPerformanceAnd the scale has achieved full growth.Oriental wealthChoiceStatistics show that thanks to the structural market in the stock market, the averageEquity fundsAnd partial stocksHybrid backgroundGains of 45.1% and 44% were obtained respectively.

What is weirder is that there are 7,414 open funds (notcoin, short termFinancial management、QDII), all obtained positive returns. So far, seven funds have doubled their returns.

Driven by exceptional performance,Raised fundsThe scale has also grown substantially. In just 10 months, the net asset value of public funds increased by 3.54 trillion yuan, surpassing the 18 trillion mark for the first time. At the same time, at the end of November, there were 39 new funds with an initial scale of more than 10 billion.

However, the industry insiders interviewed also said that looking ahead to next year, it may be difficult to see high returns in 2019 and 2020. “I think we have to lower our expectations,” a Shanghai public fund manager candidly said.

　　7 duplicate backgrounds

The performance of public funds in the first 11 months was released.

　　Oriental wealthElection statistics show that in the first 11 months of this year, there are 404Stock fundThe average return rate was 45.1%, of which 400 had a positive return, among them 369 had a return greater than 20% and 238 had a return greater than 40%, which represents close to 60% (58 , 9%). Among them, two of them have doubled their returns, namely GF High-end Manufacturing and ICBC Strategic Transformation.

Similarly, the 1005 partial stocks that can be countedHybridNeither fund has negative returns, with an average rate of return of 44%. Up to 358 with a rate of return of more than 50%, which represents 35.6%. Looking further, there are 7productThe rate of return exceeds 90%, among which the ICBC strategy is emergingindustryHybrid A and ICBC Strategic Emerging Industry Hybrid C occupy the top two places, with returns of over 100%. They are also the only funds to duplicate among partial capital hybrid products.

Taking a closer look, of the 7,414 open funds (non-cash, short-term financial management, QDII) that can be accounted for, all have had positive returns. There are also 986 who have a net worth growth rate of more than 50%, which is 13.3%.

Among them, there are 7 companies with a performance above 100%, namely GF High-end Manufacturing, ABC Industry 4.0, ABC New Energy Theme, ABC Research Selection, ICBC Strategic Transformation, ICBC Strategic Emerging Industry Hybrid A and ICBC Strategic Blend emerging industries C. It can be seen that the 7 funds doubled in 3fund companyThey are GF, ABC-CA and ICBC Credit Suisse. Two of them areBankPublic offering department.

Driven by such performance, this yearPublic funds productsBoth the number and the scale have seen explosive growth. By the end of November, up to 117 funds were depleted in one day, setting a new record for the number of tens of billions of newly established funds.

ChinaInvestment in sharesAccording to data recently released by the Fund Industry Association, at the end of October, the net asset value of public funds amounted to 18.31 trillion yuan, which was the first time that the scale of public funds exceeded the mark of the 18 billion yuan. At the end of 2019, the total assets of public funds were 14.77 trillion yuan, which means that in just 10 months, the net asset value of public funds has increased by 3.54 trillion yuan.

Boom funds have appeared frequently since the beginning of this year. At the end of November, there were 39 new funds with an initial scale of more than 10 billion. However, CBN noted that the establishment time is relatively short and there is a certain period for opening positions, and most of the “exploding fund base” does not perform particularly well.

According to incomplete CBN statistics, among the most popular products this year, E Fund Research has the highest performance since its establishment. The net value growth rate from the first trading day to the end of November was 51.8%, followed by China Securities New Energy Automobile.ETFBoth funds were established in February this year.

Due to early establishment, these funds have also performed well in the structural market this year. In contrast, funds established after July, such as Penghua Ingenious Selection, China Universal Mid-Cap Net Worth, etc., have a rate of return of only about 4%. GF’s consistent performance and underlying value growth, which was established in August, posted negative returns.

　　Fund managers lower expectations

“Many fundsthe companyThe performance review is until the end of November, so the fund manager has started planning for next year. “A source of public funds told China Business News.

Many people in the industry have stated that mutual funds have performed excellently in 2019 and 2020, and it is estimated that it will be difficult to replicate such high returns in the next year.

　　Zhongtai ValuesAnalystLeewardThunderThe capital market in 2021 is believed to remain relatively prosperous and open during the boom, but it seems unrealistic to expect public funds to continue to deliver ultra-high returns of more than 30%.

“While we also believe that the overall income space or income results are definitely not as good as 2019 and 2020, we believe positive returns are still possible,” a senior manager of public equity funds told China Business News from Beijing.

“In short, we still have to lower our expectations. It may not achieve returns as high as in the last two years. For example, it may lower the overall valuation of the portfolio,” said a Shanghai public equity fund manager.

For example, since November, the procyclical sector has continued to perform well. After the resource sector isBankThe sector also left the market. December 1st,BankThe sector rose again by 2.88%,Bank of Xiamen(601187.SH) once again the daily limit. Last 10 business daysBank of XiamenThe share price is up almost 40%, significantly outperforming the market.

asDacheng FundIt is believed that with the industry earnings differentiation and the convergence of the liquidity environment, the extreme valuation differentiation began to narrow in the third quarter. The economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020 will continue and the trend may continue in the first half of next year. The key point determining the fundamentals for 2021 is the downward turning point of endogenous economic power. As the world economy will tend to recover, while the epidemic and trade frictions have intensified the anti-globalization trend, the return to manufacturing will increase production costs. In the medium term, a new inflation cycle may begin after the second quarter of 2021. From an operational point of view, it is recommended to look for underestimated pro-cyclical industrial segments.

However, some analysts believe that the procyclical market may continue in the short term, but it is likely to enter the second half. On the one hand, the cyclical industry single-quarter earnings growth rate may peak in the first quarter, and the cyclical style generally peaks earlier; The main cyclical products are under pressure from winter storage and other accumulations, so the cyclical market is expected to last until the Spring Festival next year at the latest.

“From a valuation perspective, the stock prices and valuations of the major consumer and technology companies are indeed relatively high in history. But we believe that, compared to the bull market of 2014 and 2015, their fundamentals There is no bubble. Today’s top-tier companies are indeed the leaders in all walks of life. Future development is good, but they are growing higher and they need time to digest. ” Beijing’s director of public equity funds further said.

(Source: China Business News)

(Responsible editor: DF524)