The future of the real estate market and the stock market are concentrated on this day

Original title: The future of the real estate market and the stock market are concentrated on this day

The first day of December is really unusual.

Chinese peopleBankGuo Shuqing, secretary of the Party Committee and chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued a document that clearly stated thatreal estateDeeply connected to the financial industry,real estateIt is the greatest financial risk at this stage “Gray rhino”。

bereal estateThis is the first time in the official context that it is characterized as the largest “gray rhino”, and it isSupervisorThe leader of China’s financial industry is very unusual.

Gray rhino risks refer to potential crises that are as common as you are used to, but that continue to accumulate with a high probability of occurrence and great impact. Compared to the unexpected risk of the black swan, the gray rhino has some meaning of man-made disaster.

“Gray Rhino” is still the name of a best-selling book. In this book, author Michel Walker mentions a typical gray rhinoCase——The US housing bubble in 2008.

Yesterday was the first day of trading for A shares in December, and the stock index rose sharply.BankStocks contributed most of the index’s gains, manyBankDaily Stock Limit Bank stocks have beenmarketLong forgotten, this long lost trend is highly unusual.

From Guo Shuqing’s characterization of the real estate “gray rhino” to the daily limit of bank stocks, a very unusual signal can be seen through the two:loanparagraphinterest rateStabilize and bounce.

Yes, market capitalpriceIt has started to squeeze the margins, instead of continuing to lose. New release in SeptemberloanAverage weightinterest rateIt was 5.12%, an increase of 6BP from June.interest rateIt started to go higher and gave the banking industryprofitThe recovery brought expectations. third quarter,manufacturingThe growth rate of medium and long-term loans was 30.5%, an increase for 11 consecutive months, while the growth rate in the second quarter reached a 10-year high. The growth rate of real estate loans has been declining since June 2018. The difference in loan growth rates reflects changes in the economic structure. This change is an objective law and a requirement for political guidance.

Everything must follow the policy The reading of the financial policy depends on the central bank website. Recently, the official central bank website created a new “Policy Research” column and published three major articles one after another.

The first is “Revisiting Chinese Finance” by current central bank governor Yi Gang.Asset structureAnd political implications “, emphasizingAsset riskFocus on banks to stabilize leverage and developDirect financing, Manage risks in key areas. The central bank has intensified its attention to “preventing risks” and “stabilizing leverage.”Rigid payment“”Recessivewarranty“The development of direct financing in the policy recommendations is a long-term solution to the problems of risk distribution caused byReal estate financingIn recent years, moderation has not relaxed much. At the moment, the most important thing to pay attention to is the “macroLeverage“We must insist on” stabilizing leverage. “

The second chapter is Guo Shuqing’s “Unwaveringly Fighting the Hard Battle to Prevent and Resolve Financial Risks”, which focuses on macro leverage, unprofitable assets,Shadow bankIt is mentioned that attention must be paid to “demining” in advance in key areas.

The third article is “Expanding the concept and measurement of inflation”, by Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the Central Bank, whose argument is a bit obscure.measureIgnoring asset prices is a reflection of the unfettered stimulus policies of advanced economies, but where does the measurement of domestic inflation deviate? I’m afraid it’s also a household problem.

There are reasons to believe that these three articles are not purely academic exchanges.

(Source: Qingdao Finance and Economics Daily)

(Responsible editor: DF524)