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On Tuesday (December 1), the price of gold in Asian markets rose slightly in early trading. Due to the increase in confirmed cases of new corona pneumonia, possible restrictions to combat the epidemic brought the risk of derailment of the rapid recovery of the global economy. Investors were optimistic about the departure of the new corona vaccine. Decrease. At press time, spot gold was up 0.47% to $ 1,785.13 an ounce.
★★★ News of the US General Election.
On November 30 local time, President-elect Biden of the United States heard the President’s Daily Briefing (PDB) for the first time, signifying that his entry into the White House has marked the beginning of a new era.
The president-elect of the United States, Biden, named the former president of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, as a candidate for secretary of the Treasury. At the same time, Arizona and Wisconsin completed the confirmation of the election results, weakening the Trump election dispute.
★★★ Vaccine progress
A senior US government official said Monday that some Americans may start getting vaccinated against the new coronavirus before Christmas.
The Moderna biopharmaceutical company is seeking emergency approval for its new corona vaccine in the United States. Previously, the results of a Phase III study showed that their vaccine is 94.1% effective and has no serious safety concerns.
★★★ Epidemic situation
Last week, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States surpassed 1.1 million, and the number of hospitalized patients hit a record last Sunday. California is considering introducing new restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders.
Fed Chairman Powell said on Monday that recent news about the new corona vaccine is “very positive,” but said that “the vaccine still has great challenges and uncertainties, including timing, production and distribution, and the efficacy of different populations “. He noted that it is still difficult to assess the impact of vaccine development progress on the US economy. With the emergence of the new corona pneumonia virus, it may indicate that the coming months will face challenges. The outlook for the US economy is (still) particularly uncertain.
★★★ British-European negotiations
A senior EU diplomat said on Monday that if the EU cannot agree with the UK on a trade deal by then, the EU may initiate emergency measures this week.
★★★ Economic data
Data released Monday showed that the monthly rate of the index of sales of existing home contracts in the United States registered a decline for the second consecutive month in October, while manufacturing activity in the Midwest and Texas slowed in November and Prospects for economic recovery were bleak.
★★★ Futures market
The decline in the cost of renewing US gold futures contracts implies that market transactions are gradually returning to normal after turbulence brought on by the new corona epidemic has led to a surge from management fees for investors, depressed activities and huge profits flowing to investment banks.
★★★ Technical side of spot gold
After recovering from the May high, the price of gold may get clues from the RSI oversold conditions on the daily chart, and investors may pay more attention to the $ 1,800 threshold. However, a hit near the high of $ 1818 on July 7 may cause the price of gold to rise further.
Intraday target position: US $ 1791/1799
Intraday support: 1767. USD / 1756 USD
Gold perspective
1. “The price of gold fell below the $ 1850 support level, weakening the short-term trend in gold prices,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, principal analyst at ActivTrades, in a report. “Although investors have not forgotten that central banks will be forced to print money for many years to help the economy recover from the new corona pneumonia crisis, they have turned to other assets to seek faster returns.”
2. Walsh Trading Director Sean Lusk said those investors who entered the market late to catch up were the ones who left the market recently. “The last entry is always the earliest exit. Investors who entered the market when the price of gold was at $ 1,920 per ounce have cleared their positions and left the market. The price of gold has a very pronounced trend, with a large drop”. Lusk believes that the fall in gold prices may still be possible. Falling from $ 60 to $ 70, this downtrend wave may have fallen below $ 1,700 an ounce. However, the gold market may rise again next year, and the end of the year and the beginning of the year are usually the peak gold season.
3. ANZ Bank (ANZ) reported that market-wide themes are similar, market risk sentiment improves and the dollar weakens. “This sentiment may continue until the Fed’s decision on interest rates in December, when it could take further action because the US economy is still affected by the epidemic in the short term.”
4. Although the price of gold fell below $ 1,800 an ounce last week, data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that the path of least resistance for gold is to the upside. Bloomberg predicts that the price of gold will exceed $ 2,000 an ounce in 2021.
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