My Farm Products: December Cotton Prices Fluctuated Widely, Lower Center of Gravity Slowly Up-Finance News

Original caption: My Agricultural Products: December Cotton Prices fluctuated widely at the bottom of the center of gravity and rose slowly Source: My Agricultural Products Network

Lead:After this year’s National Day holiday, terminal orders for the cotton spinning industry chain exploded, prompting a large-scale replenishment of raw materials for terminal knitting companies, and inventories of finished yarns. of spinning companies fell dramatically. However, in December Christmas and New Years are approaching. Can the lawsuit continue? DecembercottonWhat kind of trend will the price show? Now the author makes a brief analysis based on the current market situation.

Figure 1 Zheng Mian Warehouse Receipt Trend Chart from 2019 to 2020

According to statistics from my agricultural products network, as of November 27,Zheng MianWarehouse receipts recorded were 6,602, an increase of 191; the effective forecasts were 2,267, a decrease of 25 from yesterday; the total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,869, equivalent to 354,700 tons of cotton; Zheng cotton warehouse receipts and actual forecasts reached 10,420 in the same period in 2019/20. Zheng Mian’s number of warehouse receipts in the new year decreased 36.64% year-on-year. At present, the price of the main company Zheng cotton fluctuates widely around 14,500 yuan per ton, and the cost of machine picking cotton in the new year is concentrated at 14,000-145,000 yuan per ton. No profit from the new flower coverage; the new year’s cotton index is low and the warehouse receipts are difficult Formed, and the Zheng Mian 05 contract has a slight premium of less than 100 in the 01 contract, and the hedge funds have not yet concentrated on the market .

Graph 2 Trend graph of national and foreign cotton differentials 2019-2020

According to the statistics on my agricultural products website, as of the 27th, the domestic 3128B fluff was trading at 14,581 yuan / ton, the US M-class cotton port was trading at 13,100 yuan / ton, and the The price difference between indoor and outdoor cotton was 1,481 yuan / ton. The current market price is fluctuating upward, and the increase in foreign cotton appears to be stronger, while the domestic market continues to trend strongly. Reserve cotton will continue to rotate on December 1, but from the current domestic and foreign cotton price difference, the energy storage transaction will be rotated The situation is temporarily difficult to materialize, short-term supply pressure increases and the weak supply pattern will continue.

Figure 3 Inventory situation 2018-2020 of textile companies in the main regions

According to data from the latest survey of 156 major textile companies with a scale of more than 50,000 spindles in 6 regions of the country by my agricultural products network, as of November 27, the yarn inventory of textile companies in the main regions of the country was 16 days, an increase of 0.2 from last week. Day, the month-on-month increase was 1.3% and the year-on-year decrease was 25.2%. In November, the number of days of depreciation of inventories of textile companies in the main regions increased slightly. The overall market was tepid and the pace of orders from textile companies slowed. Some large-scale spinning mills could fill orders until the end of December; Keep the orders of the old customers; Xinjiang’s fiber resources are listed one after another, and the supply of new cotton has increased. Textile companies are cautious when shopping and have a strong wait-and-see mood. Starting in December, with the arrival of Christmas and New Year’s Day, orders from textile companies can increase considerably. Orders from some 26 and 40 combed cotton textile companies are scheduled until the Spring Festival next year. It can be seen that the downstream demand side has strong support and demand. The end will remain bullish.

In summary, in the medium term, due to the pressure of warehouse receipt coverage and the difficulty of purchasing and storing, the weak supply pattern will continue, while downstream demand will continue to increase after Christmas and New Years. In the context of the new year, demand will remain optimistic, superimposed on the replenishment demand from textile companies before the Spring Festival, cotton prices are likely to continue to fluctuate widely, and the lower center of gravity will slowly increase.

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