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Shocked! 3.5 billion funds fled in a minute and the price of gold plummeted by nearly $ 85 a week. Is it time for the Chinese aunts to “buy the fund”?
This week, the international price of gold fell completely. After breaking the key support at $ 1,850 per ounce, spot gold fell below the $ 1,800 mark on the night of the 24th, the first time since July 17 this year.
Gold prices fell sharply on Friday (November 27), posting the biggest weekly drop in two months.
It should be noted that at the beginning of the year, the international price of gold opened at US $ 1,517.18 an ounce. Since March it has continued to rise. After July it has been progressing all the way, with an increase of more than 10% that month. On August 7, the spot gold price in London reached $ 2,075 an ounce. Set a record. However, since mid-August, gold has experienced several steep declines and the international gold price has returned to US $ 1,800. Spot gold fell 2% on November 24 alone.
In just a few months, the price skyrocketed and then plummeted. What happened to gold?
In early US market trading, spot gold fell below $ 1,780 an ounce and fell below three consecutive barriers. It was as low as $ 1,774 an ounce on update day and fell more than $ 39 from the daily high.
Data visualization,COMEX’s most active gold futures contract had a volume of 3,067 lots in one minute at 9:55 p.m. Beijing time on the 27th, and the total value of the commercial contracts exceeded US $ 540 million (about US $ 3.5 billion). yuan).。
This week,Spot gold closed at $ 84.71，Low 4.5%. Gold opened at $ 1,870.13 an ounce this week and closed at $ 1,786.13 an ounce. The highest reached $ 1,876.01 an ounce and the lowest reached $ 1,774.00 an ounce, with an impact amplitude of more than $ 100.
This week is the biggest weekly drop since September 25.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic and global quantitative easing, international gold prices have entered a period of rapid rise, peaking at $ 2,075 an ounce. On November 25, COMEX’s main gold futures contract was trading at around US $ 1807.06 an ounce.Intraday reached a low of $ 1,797.1 per ounce in the last 4 months. As of November 26, the price of gold has recovered, but is still hovering around $ 1,810 an ounce.
However, why did the constant price of gold suddenly change and plummet?
From geographic conflicts to the trend of the US dollar, from inflation to the holidays, the factors that affect the price of gold are omnipresent. Like a “kaleidoscope”, the dominant factors are different in different periods.
The biggest background this year is that the new corona pneumonia epidemic has spread beyond expectations around the world, the global economy is at a low point, the international financial market is turbulent, risk aversion to investors is high and gold prices have risen.
In the aftermath, with the continued advancement of research and development of the new crown vaccine, investor risk aversion caused by the epidemic has dissipated and the prospect of the US general election is it has gradually become clear, and the forces that suppress gold prices have begun to gain ground.
Chief investigator Zong Liang said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the price of gold has seen a rapid rise this year. It goes without saying that the price of gold should take some time to consolidate at this point, and it is impossible for it to rise sharply.
“Also, as a safe haven product, the decline in gold is closely related to the international situation. The current global situation is slowly stabilizing, the US election situation is basically safe, and the possibility of a global war will occur in the short term it is minimal. So basically it is all It is a predictable factor. Right now, the price of gold tends to stabilize, and it is even normal to say that it shows a fluctuating trend in a position, “added Zong Liang.
Lin Caiyi, vice president of the Research Institute of China Chief Economists Forum, also believes that the important reason gold has risen so much earlier is related to the United States. The continuing spread of the new corona epidemic in the United States, along with the weakening of the US dollar, and various global instabilities are important factors for the strength of gold. And now that the price of gold is falling, it is still related to these factors.
Lin Caiyi noted: “Now the suspense of the US elections is gone and the situation is very clear. The US dollar index has fallen very sharply in the first two quarters of this year. I personally think it has bottomed out. , which will also suppress the price of gold. “
according toXinhuanetAccording to Li Sijia, general manager of the CICC’s Jewelery Products and Commercial Risk Control Department, the short-term trend of gold prices still depends on the development of the epidemic, while the medium to long term depends more on the impact. of the epidemic in the economic fundamentals, that is, if there is a continuous demand for preservation of the value of gold. .
She believes that the impact of the epidemic on the world economy is far-reaching. In addition, some central banks adopted quantitative easing policies in the early stage, leading to a glut in global money supply. The demand for gold in the medium and long term is relatively stable and there is some basis for growth in the medium and long term.
In the face of recent violent fluctuations in the price of gold, industry experts recalled that the current logic of gold asset allocation is shifting from mere hedging to the need to protect against risky asset portfolios. It is best for ordinary investors not to simply “bet.” The price trend of a certain type of asset should be done with caution.
Lin Caiyi, vice dean of the Research Institute of China Chief Economists Forum, analyzed that I think the price of gold is not low now. The future direction of the price of gold depends on two factors: one factor is whether the dollar index will continue to fall sharply in the future and the second factor is whether there will be fierce conflicts in the international geopolitical situation. Zong Liang also predicts that in a period of time in the future, such as a year or so, the general level of gold prices should be at a relatively high level, and there will be a kind of shock or consolidation, and it will be difficult to return. to more than 2000.
Zong Liang pointed out that if investors hope to make a lot of money buying gold now, it will be more difficult. But it is possible to allocate gold as a portfolio of assets. “As a safe haven asset, although the status of gold has declined, it has shown a recovery trend in recent years. The reason is that the credit currency does not emphasize credit. This is a big problem in global financial development. In some cases, Quantitative easing has almost no results. In this case, keeping a portion of gold is still very important to stabilize the asset portfolio. “
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Editor in charge: Lu Wenyun
