The Hang Seng Index rose for five consecutive days and tech stocks showed a strong trend

Summary

[Difusión cercana]Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.56% higher today to close at 26,819.45 points, the daily K line up five consecutive times. The strong trend in tech stocks led the Hang Seng Tech Index to close 1.71%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.56% higher today, closing at 26,819.45 points, the daily K line up five consecutive times. The strong trend in tech stocks led the Hang Seng Tech Index to close 1.71%.

Looking to the future,Guosen ValuesGive the Hang Seng Index a target range of 36,000-37,000 points in 2021. Currently, the upstream cycle includesNonferrous metals, Coal, crude oil and large financial sectors are experiencing a valuation restoration With the global economic recovery, the rise in bulk raw materials and the active market, the opportunities for these sectors in 2021 are sharpening;real estate, Automobiles, household appliances, catering / tourism, papermaking,Textile and clothing, Education and machinery are currently being implemented at that time. They will remain strong in the first half of 21 years. After the second quarter of next year,PPIThe increase will gradually lead to yourprofitSqueezed, the attractiveness of the midstream sector in the second half of the year weakened;The Internet, Cloud computing / SAAS, chips, and consumer electronics are currently priced higher, and the fit is to show a better price / performance ratio.

　　Debon BackgroundThe current attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market for funds is believed to have begun to manifest itself. Next year, with the basic orientation and investment objectives increasing in the “new economy”, there is still scope for the valuation of Hong Kong shares to rise.

UBS Wealth believes that the new corona vaccine has the possibility of being available, the global and Chinese economic recovery, the fiscal stimulus and extremely lowinterest rateAnd sopriceIt constitutes support, but the MSCI Hong Kong index has recovered by more than 10% since the third quarter, which has already shown a lotprofitableFactors, the level of valuation is not attractive. The current forward P / E ratio of Hong Kong stocks is slightly above the 5-year average, and the P / E ratio is close to the 5-year average. MSCI Hong Kong Index earnings growth is projected to rebound strongly by 21% next year, meaning annual earnings per share growth is expected to be 5% to 6% between 2019 and 2022. However, due to a lack of bright spots in fundamentals, which has restricted valuation to significantly higher levels, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise moderately by 8-10% next year. .

　　China Merchants FundThe investment price ratio of Hong Kong shares is noted to be historically high compared to A shares. Long-term optimistic about the new economic sector with shortage of assets in the stock market Hong Kong and China’s concept stock performance to benefit sectors. After the external uncertainties have gradually landed, the gradual recovery of the national economy is the main line of investment. From a medium to long-term perspective, the “weak, stable dollarRMBBased on the trend, the advantages of high earnings certainty and a low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks are obvious. We are optimistic about the new economic sector with shortage of assets in the Hong Kong stock market for a long time and the return of the Chinese concept stocks to benefit the sectors.

In the direction of configuration, investmentbackgroundIt is recommended to follow the following three main ideas for market design: First, the procyclical sector has good profitability and can be followedmanufacturingInvest in the restoration of the main line, focusing on the advanced manufacturing sector and the most profitable financial sector.Bankindustry. Second, as investors’ appetite for risk picks up, the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors that were suppressed early on have more room for repair. Third, as consumption data continues to improve, the above-expected vaccination process will also have an additional catalytic effect on optional consumption, focusing on sectors such as automotive, catering, and gaming.

Amide Securities remains optimistic about the long-term security profitability trend in the Hong Kong stock market, and is optimistic about thethe companyAnd opportunities in consumer goods companies. It is believed that as the fight against the epidemic approaches, Hong Kong’s economy will stabilize and recover more and more, leading to the restoration of valuations in related industries.

　　Goldman sachsThe new corona pneumonia vaccine is expected to be available in the short term, China’s economy is expected to recover sharply and new opportunities provided by the “14th Five-Year Plan” are emerging. We are optimistic about the performance of Chinese equities next year.companyEarnings rose 20% and the “overweight” rating on H shares is maintained. The Heng forecast said the year-end target is 29,700 points, a potential 12% increase from the current price.

Yinhua Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Growth Fund Manager Zhou Dapeng said that the current valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market is the lowest in the global major capital market, and that the leading Internet companies , technology and pharmaceuticals representing the new directions of the mainland economy are continually being brought into Hong Kong for listing. According to the optimistic judgment of the Hong Kong stock market, the Hong Kong market remains the most profitable investment option globally.

　　InvescoZhan Cheng, a leading technology fund manager from Great Wall Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, believes that subsequent Hong Kong stocks will over-perform because Hong Kong stocks are profitable and capital from the south continues to flow. Foreign funds are gradually making a comeback and liquidity is good for Hong Kong equities. At the same time emergingindustryThe company is actively listed in Hong Kong shares, and a large number of Chinese concept shares are listed in Hong Kong shares.Secondary listingOptimization of the structure of the Hong Kong stock market, which increases the chances of growth of Hong Kong shares.

Liu Hongda, a fund manager at Zhejiang Merchants Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, said that in the “weak US dollar and strong RMB” exchange rate environment, with the advantages of low earnings expectations and low valuations of Hong Kong shares and Chinese shares, Hong Kong shares are currently in an excellent allocation window.

　　Morgan stanleyThe published report indicated that the rating of Hong Kong shares was raised to “overweight”, the target price at the end of next year was also raised to 28,700 points and the HSCEI price target was raised to 11,400 points. Please remain optimistic about the outlook for the Chinese and Japanese equity markets. The Chinese stock market is expected to continue to outperform the market, but the margin will not be as good as in 2020. Morgan Stanley reiterated that it is bullish on the Internet, non-essential consumer goods,Raw MaterialsAnd industrial stocks, for the “overweight” industry, also raised healthcare stocks to “overweight”, energy and finance stocks held “underweight”, technology hardware and semiconductor stocks fell to “sync with the market”.

　　Industrial valuesGlobal boss strategyAnalystZhang Yidong believes that Hong Kong stocks will usher in the long-lost index bull market in 2021. The economic recovery and revaluation favor the current one.Value stocksThe Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng State Business Index account for a large proportion; Hong Kong stocks are more profitable than A shares and US stocks. The Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks and the Hang Seng index of China are undergoing a new evolution. With the changes in the index compilation rules, the industry market value structure of the Hang Seng index is expected to be comparable to the S&P 500 index within three years. In terms of investment strategy, it should follow “the revaluation of value, driven by growth, and it is better to be long in the stocks of China and Hong Kong.”

　　Bosera FundThe head of macroeconomic strategy, Wei Fengchun, maintained that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to see an increase driven by earnings repair in the next 12 months. Structurally, focus on financial sectors that are undervalued and have a complementary growth drive, such asBankwithinsuranceWait. Other parts of the cycle that benefited from the economic recovery and the appreciation of the renminbi and consumer sectors such as the papermaking, automotive and retail sectors also deserve attention.

　　Harvest backgroundChen Zhengxian, Investment Director of the Indices Department, said that the inclusion of the new economy with the advantage of overlapping low valuations has highlighted the value of Hong Kong shares. The current AH premium rate is at a high level for the last four years. At the same time, the Hang Seng H-Share Index is valued at less than 12 times and has a relatively high cost performance.From the horizontal perspective of several of the world’s major equity markets, the Hang Seng H-Share Index Index has the lowest price-to-earnings ratio, and its moving price-to-earnings ratio is even 15 times higher.CSI 300Stay low. The continued flow of funds south into the Hong Kong market also reflects the recognition of Hong Kong shares to some extent.

(Article source:Oriental wealthResearch Center)

(Editor in charge: DF075)