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Original title: American Media: It is not the two officials chosen by Biden that determine the future of American foreign policy, but China.
[Compilador / Observador Net Tongli]On November 24, the NBC News website published an article by Richard Hanania, a researcher for the Washington think tank “Defense Priorities” – “US Foreign Policy Will be decided by China, not Blincoln and Sullivan selected by Biden.
The article proposes that the United States will find its leadership role in international affairs weakened. This is not due to the results of this or last election, but to the geopolitical and economic realities that are forcing Washington to follow this path, mainly the rise of China. “In the long run, Washington’s leaders will take the initiative to restrict or will eventually be forced to restrict.”
The following is an excerpt from the article:
“US foreign policy will be determined by China, not Blincoln and Sullivan selected by Biden“Screenshot reportBiden repeatedly criticized Trump’s foreign policy during his campaign and vowed to change the course of action to guarantee the international status of the United States. He will nominate his former foreign affairs aide and former undersecretary of state Antony Blinken as Secretary of State for the new administration, and select Jake Sullivan as the White House National Security Advisor.
In contrast to the selection of radical Republican Party figures on Trump’s foreign policy team, Brinken and Sullivan are in the mainstream of the Democrats and like to show their opponents the strength of the United States, especially rising China. They are also open to cooperation in certain areas and are more inclined to cooperate amicably with allies.
Traditional views and outlets such as The New York Times believe that Biden will bring momentous changes after taking office, ending many of the isolationist policies that advocated “America First” during the Trump era and returning to ” commit to open the market, willing to protect and reach allies. ” , Eager to play a leading role in the world “after the Cold War consensus.
In fact, Biden’s victory indicates that some of Trump’s bolder foreign policy will be more consistent with that of Biden’s former boss, Obama.
But the important thing is that we must not fool ourselves into thinking that Trump has fundamentally changed America’s foreign policy, nor that the results of this election will transform the role of the United States. For example, despite Trump’s complaints about America’s commitment to South Korea and other allies, the structure of the American alliance has not changed.
However, this does not mean that the status quo will be maintained.
In the years to come, the United States will find that its dominance in international affairs has diminished. This is not due to the results of this or last election, but to the geopolitical and economic realities that are forcing Washington to follow this path, mainly the rise of China.
In 1990, America’s GDP was 17 times that of China. By different standards of measurement, China has surpassed or will surpass the United States in the next 10 years or so. The “hawks” and the “doves” in Washington debated how to approach this issue. No matter which side wins, it is an illusion to want to keep America’s strength at the same level.
The United States has gotten angry with allies like South Korea and the Philippines because they are more willing to peacefully coexist with China rather than trying to control and balance. In the future, this frustration will increase. As of mid-November, 15 countries, including China, South Korea, Japan and Australia, have just signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which accounts for about a third of global GDP. RCEP will shape the global political landscape for decades to come and cement Beijing’s “natural position as the center of the Asia-Pacific region.”
At the same time, outside the realm of America’s allies, China’s growing strength and influence can also be felt. For example, the United States has always been “the hegemon of the Middle East.” But now, the US pressure strategy to isolate Iran is constrained by Sino-Iranian relations.
The rise of China has created a new economic and geopolitical status quo, which will not be erased just because someone does not want it. In the years to come, American leaders will have to realize that the era of unilaterally isolated rebel regimes is over and the future of East Asia will depend more on the actions of China than on the United States.
The most dangerous place is to refuse to accept this reality and to pursue a policy that attempts to maintain American hegemony, but will only lead to serious trade disputes and even war. Those who want American foreign policy to be less belligerent and less aggressive should work to prevent the worst case scenario described above.
In the long run, Washington’s leaders must take the initiative to “restrain”, and then there is hope for a good deal, or they will eventually be forced to “restrain.”
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