Procyclical stocks can receive 4000 points under structural market rotation

Summary

[Bajo la estructura cíclica alcista del sector procíclico, puede recibir 4000 puntos]According to market analysis, the rise of cyclical stocks is like this, which tends to show a relatively long period of time, and the process is not carried out in one step, perhaps one step forward, two steps back, such time It’s a step forward and a step back. Today, the economic recovery is accelerating, prosperity is constantly improving, market support is constantly strengthening, and with reasonable and abundant liquidity, the market trend logic remains unchanged. Under structural rotation, the current market trend is relatively healthy. As long as you exceed the maximum of 3458 points in the subsequent period, the 4000 point goal may be right around the corner. (Express Investment)

On November 23, driven by coal and non-ferrous metals, the pro-cyclical sector of A shares rose sharply, taking A shares to 3,400 points. On the 24th, the top three A-share indices collectively closed slightly.Shanghai indexNear the whole 3400 point mark, but the rare earth permanent magnet sector bucked the trend and strengthened, oil, steel and other sectors continued to rise abroad.marketChina’s concept stocks have shown strong gains in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other sectors.

In this regard, some market analysts say that the rise of cyclical stocks is like this, that it tends to show a relatively long period of time, and the process is not carried out in a single step, perhaps two steps forward and a step back, or one step forward and one step back. Today, economic recovery is accelerating, prosperity is constantly improving, market support is constantly strengthening, and with reasonable and abundant liquidity, the market trend logic remains unchanged. Under structural rotation, the current market trend is relatively healthy. As long as it surpasses the maximum of 3458 points in the aftermath, the 4000 point goal may be just around the corner.

The top three A-share indices contract and close, and the rise in cyclical stocks triggers a heated discussion in the market

On November 24, the top three A-share indices collectively closed slightly, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index almost holding at the 3,400 mark. The market volume contracted, with a total of 830.3 billion yuan in transactions between the two cities. The industrial sector rose less and fell more, but some cyclical sectors continued to rise. The rare earth permanent magnet sector bucked the trend and the oil sector was up 2.17%.Nonferrous metalsIt continued to rise 1.38% and the steel sector rose 1.22%. Northbound funds on 23Net inflowMore than 10 billion, a small net sale of 137 million yuan on the 24th.

On November 23, fueled by coal and non-ferrous metals, the procyclical sector of A shares rose sharply, taking A shares to 3,400 points. Many investors recalled the rapid and violent prices every time the shares took off of resources.AnalystPost an analogy in the circle of friends in 2007. New Era Securities analyst Fan Jituo said cyclical stocks will drive the index into a new market on a large scale. We believe that looking ahead to the next six months, as the epidemic gradually moves through its most dangerous period, the economy can continue to beat expectations. The cycle stocks will appear Davis by double clicking, taking the index to a new rise. Financial level,Public offerIssuance of fundsExcitement remains very high, typically from the end of the year to the spring of the second year, the fund’s activity will pick up further, which will become a major force for the index to move up.

　　Bank of China securitiesChief strategist Wang Jun believes that for the cyclical industry, the most important question now is not whether it is worthy of allocation, but what proportion of allocation. The market consistently underestimates the scope and sustainability of industry cyclical earnings. Considering that investors currently have large differences in the cyclical market, the recommendations at the industry level are more short-term and short-term. Therefore, from an investor sentiment perspective, cyclical industries also have a large positive expectation difference.

Wang Jun introduced that, as of November 20, Shenwan’s first-tier non-ferrous industry monthly rate of return was 18.2%, returning to the first place in the industry; at the same time in bulk abroadProductpriceCopper, aluminum, lead, zinc, etc. They have also continually reached new highs in this round of recovery. Taking into account this short-term recovery, the fundamental trend momentum in the industry is very strong and subsequent US fiscal stimulus will be implemented.dealThe value catalysis that is beneficial to the cycle is launched one after another, and the present time must continue steadily.Add warehouseCycle plate, and as a preferred configuration style next year.

　　Non-ferrous metals and the chemical industry have obvious advantages. Cycle Actions “Can’t Stand Without Faith”

Wang Jun said investors who pursue prudent absolute returns on specific allocations will be pro-cyclical.Big financesThe sector is the first choice. Investors seeking flexibility in relative income suggest that cyclical elastic products should be the first choice for non-ferrous metals, which also have growth characteristics and are the most underrated petrochemicals.Oil priceOversold and stagflation, there’s plenty of room for redress to the upside.

However, there are also investors who believe that cyclical speculation in stocks is often a gust of wind, and investors do not have enough judgment about the market, so rushing is not a good option. “The volatility on this day of the cycle is really not small, it is difficult to bear without a bit of faith. The sector is not crazy, just restless,” said a person from the agency.

In this regard, some investors agree, because they are optimistic about the chemical sector.PerformanceAnd low valuation, bought a few days agoDonghua EnergyAfter making a few points, I decided to sell during the shock, unexpectedly, there was a daily limit on the 23rd and the closing price went up 3 points on the 24th. After some time, the “select the right stock” but “no being able to keep it “made him feel frustrated.

Some reviews also believe that the periodicals market may last for a limited time.Tianfeng ValuesI just point,CSI 300For the first quarter of next year, there may be a clear gradual lead. This is an important factor supporting the pro-cyclical style that may continue to lead about a quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the medium and long term style trends are determined by the traditional economy andindustryDetermine the relative strength of earnings expectations So far, based on ourprofit predictionThe model and the attitude of decision-makers towards higher leverage determine that the trend of better performance in emerging industries in the medium and long term is far from over.

　　Tianfeng ValuesHe said that in terms of sustainability of excess revenue, building materials and chemicals have the biggest advantages. One of the reasons may be in the better structure of the chemical and building materials industry, which has cyclical growth attributes.the companyMore, so you can attract more funds in the medium and long term. However, the non-ferrous metals, steel and mining industries lack significant individual stock growth and alpha attributes. The overall beta is dependent on the elasticity of the demand side, so there is a lack of focus on long-term capital and a greater reliance on short-term funds to create explosive short-term business opportunities. It is relatively difficult to earn money.

From the perspective of excess revenue intensity, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals have the biggest advantages. Considering this roundPPISpecial circumstances in the rebound range, such as the expectation that vaccines will bring a global economic recovery, and the logic of the TOB consumption of building materials may be affected.real estateThe influence of the three red lines, etc. At the same time, considering the issue of continuity, among all the directions of the strong cycle, the chemical industry is the first priority, followed byBasic metal。

　　South Korea’s KLCI hits record high Stock structure market can receive 4,000 points

On November 24, the Asia Pacific market was up overall and the Korean Composite Index closed and hit a record high. The Nikkei index showed a rise, continuing to usher in a new high since May 1991. Jufeng Investment Consultants said that stock markets in neighboring countries have continued to rise and new highs. A shares have also risen recently. They have risen more than 10% in recent years. However, there is still a big gap between the new highs, but the distance of 4000 points is not far. Up.

According to the analysis of the aforementioned institutions, since November, due to the concentrated burst of cyclical stocks and the momentum of financial stocks, the index has not only returned to the 3,400 whole point mark, but also one step from the high point of the year. Today, the economic recovery is accelerating, prosperity is constantly improving, market support is constantly strengthening, and with reasonable and abundant liquidity, the market trend logic remains unchanged. Under structural rotation, the current market trend is relatively healthy. As long as it surpasses the maximum of 3458 points in the aftermath, the 4000 point goal may be just around the corner.

It is worth mentioning that since the third quarter there have been two events of great importance for the market, which can boost the stock market to continue improving. On the one hand, the important reform of the system of the “Notice on the additional improvement of the quality of listed companies” by senior management and the establishment of positive changes after the publication of the economic data for the third quarter. The former signaled the direction of the stock market from the reform of the system, while the latter marked the beginning of strong market momentum from the support of fundamentals. Under these combined effects, the overall market trend is healthy and the trend is stable and good.In addition, the Executive Meeting of the State Council also made a videomeetingThe analysis of the economic situation emphasizes that the continuity and soundness of the policies must be relatively maintained.coinPolicy change may be one less concern.

(Source: Investment Express)

(Responsible editor: DF524)