Investors still need to be careful as the overseas epidemic continues to spread

Original title: Investors still need to be careful when the overseas epidemic continues to spread

Securities Times Reporter Wu Jiaming

On the one hand, the new corona pneumonia epidemic continues to spread in many countries. On the other hand, the progress of vaccine research and development affects the market. The fluctuation of foreign financial markets has also increased. Investors still need to be “cautious.”

Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that at 8:40 a.m. on November 22, 2020 Beijing time, a total of 58,814,491 cases have been diagnosed worldwide and produced 1,378,866 deaths. On November 20, the number of new cases in the United States surpassed 193,000 in a single day. It was the first time that the number of new cases in the United States exceeded 190,000 in a single day.

With the increase in confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and new trade restrictions, the recovery of the US job market is slowing down. As the number of infections skyrockets and the number of people unemployed in the winter may rise, the need for emergency aid is more urgent, but the new fiscal stimulus plan in the United States has been delayed. Economists at JPMorgan Chase believe the US economy will contract again in the first quarter of next year due to a sharp increase in confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States and a new round of related restrictions imposed by various regions.

For investors, changes in the epidemic continue to be the focus of greatest attention. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, the severe epidemic and severe warnings from the epidemic prevention department appear to be unable to stop local Americans’ enthusiasm for travel. According to data from the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), on November 20, more than 1 million people in the US traveled on domestic flights, the second highest since the outbreak in March. Although this figure is only 40% of the 2.6 million people in the same period in 2019, it is still a significant travel peak at the time of the epidemic and does not help the escalation of the new corona epidemic in the United States. In the eyes of market participants, this has also placed “landmines” on the financial market.

In Europe, economic activities that have just restarted had to be interrupted again due to the return of the epidemic. French Prime Minister Castel declared on November 12 that the lockdown measures will continue for at least another 15 days. At this time, the reduction in the number of people leaving will surely affect the consumer market. Statistics from the US Mourning Consulting Company show that France’s National Consumer Confidence Index reached a new low in the second half of the year in November, a decrease of about 10% compared to a month ago, and is close to the level when the first wave of the epidemic broke out in April.

In Japan, due to the recent expansion of new corona infections in many places in Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga called an emergency meeting on the 21st to announce the suspension of “Go To Travel” activities in the high-level areas of the country. Yoshihide Suga also asked the Japanese to cooperate fully, urging them to wash their hands frequently, avoid going to crowded places, and wear masks during dinner parties.

According to media reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20 have issued alarms recently. The International Monetary Fund pointed to advances in vaccines, but at the same time said that the rise in asset prices indicates that it is out of touch with the real economy and represents a potential threat to financial stability. The draft G20 communiqué also shows: “The economic recovery is uneven, there are many uncertain factors and downside risks are also high, including the risk of a recurrence of the epidemic in some economies.

Since Pfizer and other related companies announced positive data on vaccine clinical trials, the market investment logic has changed immediately. According to EPFR data cited by Bank of America, the inflow of funds to global stock markets in the past two weeks soared to US $ 71.4 billion, the highest level in history. The influx of funds was primarily driven by the US equity markets and emerging markets. Pfizer is reported to have submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (US) Application to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its new corona pneumonia vaccine. The FDA advisory committee will discuss whether to grant an emergency use authorization to Pfizer’s new corona pneumonia vaccine on December 10. Pfizer previously stated that the final results of the test showed that the vaccine is as effective as 95% and has no serious side effects.

The Bank of America said 2021 is expected to be a “vaccine year,” leading to value stocks outperforming growth stocks and emerging markets outperforming the S&P 500 index. However, last week , concerns about the escalation of the epidemic outweighed the benefits generated by previous vaccines. The US stock market fell back and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.9% from its peak.Return to Sohu to see more