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Summary
[Diferenciacióndetendenciasdeacciones¿cómoencontrarlasindustriasmásdestacadasenelpanoramadelmercado?DecaraalfuturoelmercadopuedeexperimentarfluctuacionesacortoplazoperolatendenciadecambiodeestilodesdejulioserácadavezmásobviaLarazónprincipalesquelatendenciaderecuperacióneconómicanocambiaráenelcortoplazoeinclusopuededeberseaqueloscambiosenlademandaexternasuperanlasexpectativasEnestecontextoamedioplazoelmercadoestaráimpulsadobásicamenteporunrendimientoimpulsadoporvaloracionesbajasunaprociclicidadrelativamentedominanteyunamayordiferenciaciónestructural(Reddetiemposdevalores)[Diferenciacióndetendenciasdeacciones¿cómoencontrarlasindustriasmásdestacadasenelpanoramadelmercado?DecaraalfuturoelmercadopuedeexperimentarfluctuacionesacortoplazoperolatendenciadecambiodeestilodesdejulioserácadavezmásobviaLarazónprincipalesquelatendenciaderecuperacióneconómicanocambiaráenelcortoplazoeinclusopuededeberseaqueloscambiosenlademandaexternasuperanlasexpectativasEnestecontextoamedioplazoelmercadoestaráimpulsadobásicamenteporunrendimientoimpulsadoporvaloracionesbajasunaprociclicidadrelativamentedominanteyunamayordiferenciaciónestructural(Reddetiemposdevalores)
Today the market as a whole continues to fall, but the cycle and growth sectors differ even more.The Shanghai Composite IndexUp to 0.22%,Shenzhen Component IndexIt fell 0.54%,Market Business Growth IndexIt fell 1.41%. Cyclical stocks supplemented their gains and growth stocks continued to decline.BankThe growth rate of the sector reached 2.5%, leading all industries.Brokerage, Steel,real estate、Nonferrous metalsThe gains in the other sectors are among the best. In the previous period, popular sectors and individual stocks experienced general declines.Home appliance industryThe decrease reached 1.5%, leading the market. Electrical equipment, leisure services, medical biology,food and drinkThe high-valuation sector continued to decline. The liquor index fell 1.65%,WuXi AppTec、Ophthalmology AierMajor pharmaceutical stocks also fell sharply.
Looking ahead, the market may experience short-term fluctuations, but the trend towards a change in style since July will become increasingly obvious. The main reason is that the economic recovery trend will not change in the short term, and may even be due to changes in external demand exceeding expectations.In this context, the market will be basically undervalued in the medium term, pro-cyclical, relatively dominant and structurally more differentiated.PerformanceBoosting the market, it is impossible to return to the bull market of unipolar liquidity in the first half of this year. This has been reminding us all since the market peak in July. So far, it is completely sustainable. Repeated too much.
Recently, our internal reference is also planning a review and update, hoping to add more in-depth current content, now this type of market only follows the trend of seeing news has no future, we must strengthen basic skills training, invite Everyone to pay attention. Today we will continue to talk about our series of industry topics. Before, we ranked the valuation levels and leaders of various industries.the company. Starting today, we will continue to solve the competitive landscape of various industries.
OnecompanyThere are only two paths to the growth of the company’s performance, one is the overall growth of the industry, and the tide is rising, and the other is that the industry as a whole has not grown, but the company has gained more share in she. This is the improvement of the competitive landscape. For example, everyone knows that liquor is the most powerful industry. Many people say that the demand for liquor is great and that the market is growing rapidly. In fact, it is not at all. China’s liquor production peaked in 2016 and has fallen more than 30% in recent years. So why have liquor stocks not only not fallen but also increased several times in the last five years? The secret lies in improving the competitive landscape. At the same time as the general market declines, these 20 listed companies at the top of the industry, especially Moutai at the topWuliangyeThese topBrand, Gained more market share and pricing power, so that revenue andprofitNot only is it not less, but due to the increased market share and gross profit, it has grown significantly, just like famous wines like Moutai.interest rateIt can exceed 93%, which is the result of better competition.
In a declining industry, if the industry competitive landscape improves, the major companies may perform better; in a rising industry, if the industry competitive landscape is particularly poor, everyone is struggling.priceIn war, none of the companies are making money, and they will even be dragged to their deaths by fierce competition. Everybody tends to analyze the industry outlook, but few people pay attention to changes in the industry structure, so our topic series will talk specifically about the competitive landscape of various industries.
According to Shenwan’s list of secondary industries, there are a total of 28 categories and 104 sub-industries, in no particular order. Today, let’s talk about various sub-industries in the mining category, namely: oil extraction and coal mining. , Extraction services.
1, Oil extraction:Petrochemical industryindustryUpstream of the chain. 2019China PetroleumReserves amount to 3.6 billion tons, ranking 13th in the world, and dependence on imports exceeds 60%. From the perspective of the characteristics of the industry, the oil extraction industry is a capital, technology and resource intensive industry.monopolyThe characteristics of economy and scale are important and related to the national energy security, so the national oil resources have been strictly controlled for many years. At present, China’s oil extraction industry has been formedChina Petroleum、SinopecAnd CNOOC’s top three oil companies as the industry’s main operating structure. Crude oil production from the “three barrels of oil” represents more than 90% of the country’s total production. At present, more than 95% of the exploration and development of oil and gas resources registered in the country are controlled by the “three barrels of oil”, which is basically a monopoly. Prospecting rights obtained by private companies represented only 1%.
Thus, the rights to explore and exploit oil and gas resources have become a barrier for private companies. In addition to the “three barrels of oil”, the only listed companies in the oil extraction industryIntercontinental oil and gaswithNew Wave EnergyTwo, and the mining area is one in Kazakhstan and one in the United States. However, in January this year, the reform aimed at the oil and gas exploration market took an important step. The Ministry of Natural Resources announced that it will fully liberalize market access for oil and gas exploration and exploitation, including exploration rights and mining rights, and allow the entry of private companies, foreign capital companies and other social capital, changing the long-term monopoly situation of state oil companies. It is expected that the structure of the oil and gas industry can be rebuilt while increasing production.
2, coal mining:The coal industry is a typical upstream industry. From the perspective of the characteristics of the industry, it is a capital-, technology- and resource-intensive industry with significant economies of scale and subject to severe political influence. Since 2012, due to the slowdown in economic growth and the adjustment of the energy structure, the demand for coal has fallen dramatically.Overcapacity, The impact of imported coal, the fall in coal prices, the large area of the industryLostAnd other issues, the coal industry was officially opened in 2016supplySide reform, bringingIndustrial structureOptimization: First, the number of coal mines across the country has been significantly reduced, from 14,000 in 2010 to 5,268 in 2019. Second, the structure of production capacity has been significantly improved. By 2019, the production of large-scale coal mines will represent approximately 80% of the country’s total, and the production capacity of small and medium-sized mines will be reduced from 16% in 2010 to approximately 7%. The third is giving birth to a number of large and super-large coal companies. The 1 billion ton and 50 million ton coal enterprises have risen from zero, reaching 7 and 17 respectively in 2019. Taking the former Shenhua Group as an example, coal production increased from about 30 million tonnes in 2000 to 360 million tons in 2010 and 460 million tons in 2019, an increase of more than ten times.
The coal industry in China has long faced fierce competition, but as the integration of coal resources continues to advance, the concentration of the coal industry has increased.With Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Shanxi Coal Group , Shandong Energy Group and Yankuang Group were successively integratedReorganizationIt is a historical event.China CoalIndustrial concentrationIt has vastly improved, CR4 (the industry’s top four equity concentration index) increased from 12% in 2000 to 25% in 2019, and CR8 increased from 17% to 37%. Of the foreign coal industry concentration, the major CR4 coal producing countries, 52% in the United States, 40% in Australia, 46% in Russia, 42% in Indonesia, 93% in Germany, 89% in India, 66% in South Africa, most of which are above 50%, and some are in Oligopoly. The current concentration of China’s coal industry remains low. The goal of increasing industrial concentration in the future can be considered to have CR4 reaching 40% or CR8 reaching approximately 50%.
3, Mining service:It mainly refers to the provision of oil fields for oil and gas exploration companies.Professional environment, Engineering and technical services, cargo handling and transportation services. Since 2018, the national level has issued important instructions on many occasions, requiring oil companies to increase national oil and gas exploration and development efforts to ensure a high-quality oil and gas supply. Benefiting from this, domestic upstream exploration capital expenditures have maintained rapid growth. In 2019, three barrels of investment in oil exploration increased to 371.4 billion yuan.I andThe growth rate was 23%. The national petroleum technology services industry has begun to usher in a period of increasing prosperity. Because the oilfield services industry is closely related to oil exploration, oilfield services companies below three barrels of oil have a natural competitive advantage.The only oilfield engineering technology services company under SinopecPetrochemical Oil ServiceRevenues in 2019 represented more than 30% of the revenues of all publicly traded companies in the sector, of which Sinopec sales accounted for 58% of revenues.Medium oilBuildingplatformPetroChina EngineeringRevenues represented 28% of the revenues of all listed companies in the sector. Its main activity is in the field of storage and transportation engineering (pipeline construction), with crude oil, natural gas andRefined oilThe pipelines represented 71%, 70% and 42%, respectively.
(Source: Securities Times Net)
(Responsible editor: DF537)
I solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this booth.
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