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The good news of the vaccine has touched the nerves of the tourism industry: many passengers have expressed their desire to start the trip again.
On November 17, UK-based low-cost carrier EasyJet announced its dismal performance – the first annual loss in 25 years, reaching $ 1.68 billion. But this also reflects a ray of hope.
EasyJet CEO John Lundgren said that when Pfizer and BioNTech announced the results of their vaccine trials on November 9, the company’s reserves soared 50%. According to Reuters, Lundgren believes this growth momentum will continue until November 16, when Moderna also announced a highly effective vaccine candidate.
Last week UK travel guides and booking websites also showed similar signs.
After test results from Pfizer and BioNTech were announced, Skyscanner, a booking website under Ctrip, showed that in the spring and summer of next year, travel searches will achieve a 48% weekly increase. Joe McClintock, the company’s senior director of brand, said the incremental results of vaccine development are “the most important factor in restoring passenger confidence.”
At the same time, data from the TravelSupermarket website shows that after the announcement of the first vaccination, the number of visits to the website has increased by 54% each week. Its spokeswoman Emma Kurst said this news is “a vaccine that the industry and tourists desperately need.”
Kurst said in an email statement: “Compared to the weekend of the previous week, this weekend has seen a significant increase in travel searches and bookings on the website.”
Years of recovery
It’s not hard to see why the news of the vaccine sent aviation stock price soaring, but there are still two points to consider.
First, airlines are offering “highly profitable” concessions for next year’s flights to attract customers to fly. So as long as there is a hint that it is safe enough to fly by then, many customers will be able to consciously take the risk and book tickets in advance.
Second, the vaccine company stated in the announcement that its efficacy level is over 90%, but it is only the first step in the world to restore normalcy. Right after, you need the backing of final test results, certification from the drug regulatory authority, and the enormous work of producing and distributing vaccines to billions of people around the world.
(As for the last point: the International Air Transport Association issued guidance on the air cargo industry on November 16 to help the aviation industry prepare for the unprecedented scale of vaccine handling and transportation.)
Investment bank Liberum said in a report on Nov. 17 that the vaccine official announced that “(we) coexist with the virus and its risks will not be longer, let alone indefinitely.” He added: “However, the scene of all the passengers returning to the terminal building in the short term will not appear.”
Liberum said: “We still expect the recovery in demand to take several years, especially as household income and employment are affected by the economy.”
Various inspections
Vaccinations are just one of the important factors in ensuring flight safety, and fast and effective nucleic acid tests are also very important. In terms of testing, although there are indications that new developments are coming, current rapid antigen tests are not yet reliable. (Elon Musk’s “sudden and radiant” detection charade is enough to prove it.)
Even if the antigen test is credible enough, system coordination is also very important to ensure that the test results are credible on both ends. But now it seems that the coordination is not good.
On November 17, Reuters reported that many EU governments were opposed to establishing common rules for the rapid detection of the new crown.
Therefore, European airlines are faced with a difficult situation: domestic flights have adopted the above-mentioned detection methods, but it is difficult to deploy them widely on transnational routes. (Chinese network of fortune)
Compiler: Yang Eryi
The good news on the vaccine front has had an immediate and tantalizing toll on the travel industry, suggesting that many passengers are eager to get going again.
On November 17, UK-based low-cost carrier EasyJet released results that were mostly dismal: It posted its first annual loss, of $ 1.68 billion, in its quarter-century history. But it also pointed to a ray of hope.
When Pfizer and BioNTech announced the promising results of the COVID-19 vaccine trial on November 9, EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren said, the airline’s bookings jumped by 50%. According to Reuters, it added that the momentum continued on November 16, when Moderna also announced very high efficacy for its candidate vaccine.
Similar indications came in last week from UK travel comparison and booking websites.
Following the announcement of the Pfizer / BioNTech test results, Skyscanner said it saw a 48% week-over-week increase in travel searches next spring and summer. The firm’s senior brand director, Jo McClintock, said advances in vaccine development were “the single most important factor in restoring traveler confidence.”
Meanwhile, TravelSupermarket.com saw a 54% week-over-week increase in that first vaccine announcement, with spokeswoman Emma Coulthurst calling the news “the positive injection that the industry and travelers need.
“The weekend that just ended saw a further increase in vacation search and booking compared to the previous weekend,” Coulthurst said in an emailed statement.
“Recovery of several years”
It’s not hard to see why the announcements soared airline stocks. However, there are two notable factors to consider here.
One is that airlines are offering fantastic deals on flights next year as they try to entice people back on the air. So with a hint that flying might be safe enough within that time frame, many people can afford to take a chance and book now.
The other thing to remember is that vaccine ads, in which drug companies praised efficacy levels above 90%, mark only a first step toward a return to normalcy. The final results of the trials are still needed, then authorization from drug regulators, and then the daunting task of producing and distributing the vaccines to billions of people around the world.
(On that last front, the International Air Transport Association [IATA] issued a guide to the air cargo industry on November 16, to help it prepare for its role in handling and transporting vaccine doses on an unprecedented scale.)
In a Nov. 17 note, investment bank Liberum said vaccine announcements suggest there will not be a “prolonged or even indefinite period of having to live with the virus and its risks.” However, the prospect of all passengers returning to the terminals in the short term was not too optimistic.
“We still expect a multi-year recovery in demand, especially with the full economic consequences on household income and employment yet to be seen,” Liberum said.
Test times
Vaccines will also be just one element to make flying safe again, albeit one of the main ones. Rapid and effective coronavirus tests will also be important, and while promising new test developments are just around the corner, current rapid antigen tests are not very reliable. (Ask Elon Musk).
Even considering those antigen tests, a level of political coordination will be needed to ensure their results are reliable at both ends of a journey. And things don’t look very good there.
Also on November 17, Reuters reported that many EU governments are opposed to establishing common rules around rapid tests for COVID-19.
The situation leaves European airlines, which are using such tests for domestic flights, largely unable to implement them on international routes.
