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Reuters, Beijing, November 17: The CCP’s recommendations on the 14th Five-Year Plan and long-term goals for 2035 pay close attention to “security,” but in the eyes of experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the official think tank, stressing security does not mean not being open On the contrary, China has to work harder to promote a higher level of openness. The RCEP agreement signed over the weekend is a “test” of opening.
Experts from the Academy of Social Sciences who attended the information session of the State Council Information Office on Tuesday also believe that in the process of expanding the opening and construction of a new pattern of development of internal and external cycles , it is not easy for China to get rid of dependence on the traditional path and achieve industrial transformation and modernization. It is also necessary to prevent industrial vacuum. To avoid premature manufacture.
In view of the fact that crossing the middle income trap requires a certain growth rate, some experts also suggest that it is appropriate for China to set an average annual growth rate of around 5% during the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, so that it is close to the potential growth rate of 5-6%, and full consideration is given to making use of it as well. Existing resources to seize the opportunity for reform, openness and innovation.
“Safety and development, safety and openness are a dialectical relationship. When safety is emphasized, the implicit meaning is to be more open. Just as some people pay special attention to braking, it may mean they want to drive.” Abra faster and open faster, “said Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.” The emphasis on security does not mean that we are not open. “
He noted that China now places special emphasis on institutional openness. The core of institutional openness is the rules. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) over the weekend is “proof” of the expansion of China’s openness. This is the first trade and investment agreement signed by China. The negotiations that were completed on the negative list model involved many issues that were not covered before, such as e-commerce.
As for the proposal of the 14th Five-Year Plan of the Communist Party of China to “promote the internationalization of the renminbi steadily and cautiously”, the word “cautious” is used compared to the above expressions, because the internationalization of the renminbi is a project system involving the valuation and settlement of the renminbi, Reserve currencies, exchange rate liberalization, convertibility and capital account liberalization, and financial stability and security are closely linked. “The emphasis on prudence and prudence in the next five years highlights this meaning,” said Zhang Yuyan.
But the internationalization of the renminbi is what China is doing and what China is doing. “Right now, the emphasis on stability and caution is similar to the relationship between openness and security … I have to think about how to move forward faster. … on the basis of prudence. The “verbs” still need to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, “he said.
He also believes that the internationalization of the renminbi should also consider market acceptance, including changes in the demand, use and internationalization of the renminbi. “Caring” also means paying attention, caring and adapting to the needs of the market.
Compared with the previous five-year plans, the CCP’s fourteenth five-year plan recommendations focus on overall development and security planning, and building a high-level secure China. Whether adhering to the general concept of national security, implementing a national security strategy, or preventing risks in all aspects of social and economic life, the proposed draft has a clear statement.
Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Institute of Finance of the Academy of Social Sciences, believes that how to coordinate security and development, the market plays a decisive role is still the most important, but at the same time to add a new dimension, we must also consider safety and how to balance the two. “I think it is a huge challenge facing China’s development in the next five years or more.”
** It is more appropriate to set an average annual goal of around 5% in the 14th Five-Year Plan **
The economic and social development goals of the “XIV Five-Year Plan” (2021-2025) and the long-term goals for 2035 outlined by the Fifth Plenary Session of the XIX Central Committee of the Communist Party of China have minimized the aggregate economic indicators, they follow embrace the “double loop” nature and emphasize high-quality development. Technological innovation is the first priority, and it is proposed that the focus of economic development be on the real economy and the construction of “three powers” + digital China.
The market has different opinions on whether or not to set a growth target during the fourteenth five-year plan period. Some people think that high-quality development is not a simple measure of numbers, so it doesn’t matter. However, some people think that without the “witness” of the growth target, local governments will too. Without the motivation to compete on GDP, it is still very important for China to defuse potential risks and overcome the middle income trap. making the cake bigger and bigger.
“There are many uncertain factors, and it is more appropriate to set the expected average annual growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period at around 5%,” said Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
He believes that the fourteenth five-year plan can continue to set specific targets for per capita GDP growth, because today China remains an upper-middle-income country and has not yet entered the ranks of high-income countries. At this stage, as a large country with a population of 1.4 billion, it will exceed half. The income trap is of great importance for the construction of a modern country.
China’s potential growth rate during the fourteenth five-year plan period is estimated to be 5-6%. Considering the impact of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, the annual growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will fluctuate significantly. For example, this year it can only increase by 2 3%. If effective vaccines can be brought to market early next year, then economic growth may reach a relatively high level in 2021, but the base will be high in 2021 and there may be a significant decline in 2022.
Li Xuesong believes that the target of about 5% takes into account the level of close to the potential growth rate, and also takes into account the full use of existing resources to seize opportunities for reform and opening up innovation, and also believes that the release of the reform and the opening of innovation dividends requires a process, and at the same time Change the mode of economic growth and promote high-quality development to make adequate space.
President Xi Jinping pointed out in his statement on the fourteenth five-year plan and the long-term goals for 2035. After careful research and calculation, the document’s writing team believes that China will reach the current national high-income standards by the end. of the fourteenth five-year plan and by 2035. It is entirely possible to double total economic output or per capita income every year. However, considering that there will be more unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment in the future, the medium and long-term planning objectives should pay more attention to optimizing the economic structure and guide all parties to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development.
** Avoid emptying the industry **
Manufacturing is the cornerstone of a country’s economic development. One of the slogans chanted by the president of the United States, Trump, during the trade war between China and the United States is to encourage manufacturing to return to the United States. The CCP’s recommendations on the fourteenth five-year plan also clearly stated that it is necessary to “improve the level of modernization of the industrial chain and supply chain. Keep the manufacturing ratio basically stable.”
Huang Qunhui, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the share of China’s manufacturing industry may have declined too rapidly in recent years. Of course, theoretically speaking, as a country’s per capita income increases, the share of manufacturing will decrease, but If the manufacturing industry has its own innovation effects, industrial linkage effects, etc., if the share of industry manufacturing is not fully utilized, the proportion of manufacturing industry will decline rapidly, then it is premature deindustrialization and premature defabrication.
“It is reasonable to ‘go’ to a certain extent, that is, mature deindustrialization, but now it should be said that the share of manufacturing in China has declined relatively rapidly in recent years,” he noted that the share of manufacturing in Germany, Japan and Korea The South Both remain above 20%, and the GDP per capita of these countries has reached 30,000 to 30,000 US dollars, but the current GDP per capita of China is only 10,000 US dollars. The manufacturing industry accounted for less than 30% in 2017, and now it may be 28% or 27%. It seems.
He believes that if we continue to follow this defabrication trend, due to the failure of the manufacturing industry itself and the corresponding service industry has not really become an industry that can lead the economy, some low-efficiency industries will replace it. The manufacturing industry will face great challenges and risks in its economic outlook.
Zhang Yuyan also believes that in order to focus on domestic circulation, the first thing to do is to open domestic lock points and establish a unified domestic market. Only after unlocking national circulation will we be able to better participate in the international division of labor and international trade, and promote the better development of the entire region and the world economy. .
“The second is to avoid emptying industries. Many countries gradually empty industries after per capita income reaches a certain level, and the power for sustained growth is insufficient,” he said. (End up)
