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Original title: Delaying Retirement is at stake, and experts suggest that pension income “falls early and rises late”
From “research” to “implementation,” the delay in retirement is really coming up.
The “Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the formulation of the fourteenth five-year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for 2035” (hereinafter the “Planning Proposal”) proposes to implement a gradual delay at the legal retirement age.
Professor Dong Dengxin from Wuhan University of Science and Technology said in an interview with a reporter for the 21st Century Business Herald that this statement has a double meaning. Previously, our country proposed to study the plan to delay retirement, it is no longer “research” but “implementation”, which means that it is possible to accelerate the implementation, perhaps in two or three years. Also, rather than implementing deferred retirement in one step, it is a step-by-step approach, possibly in two or three steps.
During the ‘XIV Five-Year Plan’ period, there was a very severe ‘window period’, that is, the baby boom in 1963. They will soon be over 60 years old. This will lead to a rapid decline in the number of people who pay for pension insurance in China. The number of people is increasing rapidly, so this matter should be put on the agenda during the period of the “XIV Five-Year Plan”, Yang Yansui, director of the Center for Employment and Social Security Research at Tsinghua University, told the reporter. from the 21st Century Business Herald.
Yang Yansui suggested that the design of the deferred retirement plan could adopt the “early decrease and late increase” model, that is, set a minimum age for receiving pensions in addition to the standard age. Due to early retirement and receipt of pensions, the receipt time is relatively longer, so your pensions can be received at a certain percentage based on the standard. In contrast, those who retire later than the standard age can receive a commensurate increase.
Why implement deferred retirement?
In November 2013, the “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Important Comprehensive Reform Issues” was published, proposing the establishment of a fairer and more sustainable social security system, and investigating and formulating a policy to gradually delay the retirement age.
Seven years later, the planning “Proposal” issued in November this year clearly stated that basic pension insurance should be coordinated at the national level and the legal retirement age should be gradually delayed.
Under China’s current retirement system, the current legal retirement age is 60 for men, 55 for female civil servants and 50 for female workers. The analysis generally believes that in the context of China’s rapid aging development, China’s current retirement system will inevitably adjust.
Yang Yansui told the 21st Century Business Herald that the meaning behind the delay in retirement is actually a delay in retirement age. How to calculate this age? The basic principle is the average life expectancy of people, minus the standard age for receiving pensions in various countries.
Yang Yansui told reporters that we select countries with a GDP level similar to our country and calculate an average value. The average pension age for the elderly is approximately 13 years and may continue to grow as life expectancy increases. So this is actually a dynamic arithmetic problem, but China’s retirement system hasn’t changed since the 1950s.
Why is it calculated like this? Yang Yansui said that only in this way can we achieve intergenerational balance and balance the pay burden of the young and the pension income of the elderly.
Lu Jiehua, a professor in the Department of Sociology at Peking University, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the latest statement of the planning “Proposal” means that the previous research was mainly carried out and that the research results are emerging. gradually. It also means that there will not be a one-size-fits-all stipulation on the age for deferral of retirement. . In the future, delays in retirement will gradually adjust to accommodate the age structure of China’s population and the new and deepening aging pattern.
The United Nations considers that more than 7% of the population aged 65 and over, or more than 10% of the population aged 60 and over, are the criteria for entering an aging society. In 2019, China had a population of 253.88 million people aged 60 years and over, representing 18.1% of the total population, of which 176.03 million people aged 65 and over, representing 12.6% of the total population.
As the proportion of older people continues to rise, it means that the number of pensioners in China has increased and the working population paying pensions has decreased. Therefore, the implementation of deferred retirement has been “the arrow is on the line.”
“Currently, there are several steps and plans to implement deferred retirement.” Dong Dengxin said: “I personally advocate that the retirement age of men and women should be unified to 60 years. The current basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China is 60 years. It covers more than 500 million people. and the basic pension insurance for employees covers more than 400 million people. There are only between 200 and 200 million insured who retire before the age of 60. From the perspective of equity, I propose to prioritize unifying age retirement plans for men and women. When you turn 60, you will delay your retirement in steps. “
The second plan is not to unify the retirement age of men and women, but to gradually implement deferred retirement. Of course, women can delay retirement faster, and so the end result of extending the retirement age is the unified retirement age. “The uniform retirement age is the general trend, and the retirement age of men and women in Europe and the United States is the same,” said Dong Dengxin.
Receive the pension “decrease early and increase late”?
What does it mean to delay the retirement of ordinary workers?
A reporter for the 21st Century Business Herald found after research that many generations after 70 are more sensitive to this, because they are the first group of “workers” who are most likely to face a delay in retirement.
Chen Jing (pseudonym), born in the 1970s, works for a foreign trade company. Under current policy, he reached retirement age at two years. “This matter has been said for a long time. If it is really going to be implemented, in fact, it is our approach that has the greatest impact. Those who have retired, have already planned to retire and are suddenly told to delay.” .
She personally prefers to retire at her current age. “At this age, my body and my energy are gradually unable to keep up. I still want to spend more time with the elderly. The elderly do not live with us now and it is inconvenient to take care of any illness.”
During the interview, the journalist learned that many “employers”, especially those born in the 1970s, have better overall economic conditions and pay more attention to time off after retirement.
Dong Dengxin believes that while retirement is delayed, a flexible retirement system can be implemented, that is, early retirement can be done before reaching the legal retirement age, but a part of the pension must be deducted. This is an encouragement and incentive for those who insist on working. Of course, you are also encouraged to continue working after reaching the legal retirement age.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that almost all experts believe that it is not necessary to force a certain age to retire, but the pension can be “decreased earlier and increased later,” that is, the proportion of early retirement is lower. Late retirement can increase a part of the pension.
Yang Yansui pointed out that the retirement age does not have to be too fixed, because each person’s physical condition and professional environment are different. Except for civil servants who must retire on time, companies, especially private companies, do not actually have strict regulations on the retirement age.
There is a standard age for receiving pensions. For example, if you receive early retirement at the age of 60 and 58, you cannot receive 100%. Instead, you should receive it at a rate of 80%, because you receive it earlier and pay less. Yang Yansui said that if retirement is postponed compared to the standard age, then the reception time is relatively shorter and should be increased proportionally, such as by 2%, 3%, and the UK may even increase to 10%.
Lu Jiehua also said that the delay in retirement can be gradually adjusted for different types of jobs, companies and industries. For some types of jobs, like heavy manual workers, like coal workers, it is unrealistic if they have to postpone their retirement until they are over 60 years old. On the other hand, we must also consider the willingness of various types of work to delay retirement, for example groups such as doctors and teachers may be more inclined to delay retirement.
He believes that delaying retirement should consider how to encourage and motivate people to retire later, that is, there is a certain slant of the system. For example, in terms of pension, health care, including provident fund and income, can some people who delay retirement get more benefits?
In addition to flexible pensions, Yang Yansui believes that the whole of society must cooperate with the current situation of an aging society to create an environment that can delay retirement.
“Today, with the aging of the population, the growth of GDP per capita and the emergence of the Internet, many traditional jobs have disappeared and many new ones have been created. Many of these jobs are only suitable for young people, like some people At the same time, there are still some positions, such as those that require face-to-face services, such as the care services industry for the elderly. There is currently a large staff gap. This requires the State to strengthen vocational training and advertising, and provide services for the transfer of a large number of people.
Yang Yansui believes that it is also necessary to advocate for companies to change their culture and operating concepts. Individuals, businesses, and even government must change their understanding of human resource management to welcome the current era of health and longevity.
Dong Dengxin also believes that the jobs are not done by former employees.New industryNew technologies, new formats and new models are emerging one after another, industries are constantly being subdivided and new jobs are constantly being created. Also, there are some emerging occupations that require young people.
“There is no absolute substitution ratio between the jobs of the old and the young. Of course, there will be some overlaps, but in fact there is a certain degree of competition in the job itself, and a moderate overlap is inevitable and necessary. “Dong Dengxin said.
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