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Original title: Is there a way for many countries to clarify the timing of vaccination to save the world economy?
Source: Beijing Commercial Daily
Along with the latest developments in the new corona vaccine, the vaccination schedule has also been published in several countries: comprehensive plans of the United States, Russia, South Korea and Indonesia, the vaccine will be vaccinated on a large scale by the end of this year and early next, and hope is not far off. However, the worrying thing is that with the development of the new corona vaccine, there is a rebound in many countries.The World Health Organization highlights that around 70% of the world’s population is vaccinated to ensure the end of the pandemic. UBS also warned that even if the vaccine is put into use, it will take a while for the global economy to recover.
Vaccination schedule
“In April of next year, all ordinary Americans can be vaccinated except New York State.” This is the first public speech by current US President Trump since the mainstream media predicted that Democratic presidential candidate Biden won the presidential election. In the Rose Garden of the White House on the afternoon of 1:00 p.m. local time, Trump held a press conference on the advancement of the new corona vaccine, but a scene of “magic reality” appeared at the meeting.
According to Trump, New York Governor Cuomo does not trust the source of the vaccine. In the past period of time, Cuomo has always expressed mistrust in Trump’s promise to quickly provide effective immunization drugs. Cuomo mentioned a few months ago that he was concerned that Trump would try to force the vaccine to market and that he would establish a panel of experts to review the vaccine. On the 14th, Trump said on Twitter: “We cannot waste time, but only give the states that will use the vaccine immediately.”
Regarding Trump’s current statement, New York State Attorney General James said on the 13th that she is ready to sue the Trump administration in response to attempts to stop the new coronavirus vaccine in the state of New York.
Trump lost prevention and control of the epidemic and also lost the US elections. Fortunately, the vaccine has advanced at this point, and Trump also said that the Pfizer vaccine will soon be approved by the FDA for emergency use. Currently, not only the United States has announced the progress of vaccination. On the same day, Russian President Peskov’s press secretary also told the media that relevant Russian pharmaceutical companies have started producing the new corona vaccine, and their production will continue to increase. It is expected in the next few months. It will be vaccinated on a large scale.
In addition, Kwon Yuk, deputy director of the Korean Headquarters for Anti-Epidemic Countermeasures, declared on the 10th of this month that he will endeavor to launch vaccination in the country from the second half of next year. On the 13th, Indonesian President Joko also mentioned in an interview with Reuters that Indonesia is expected to start the vaccination process by the end of the year. It is understood that the first vaccine in Indonesia will come from China Kexing and China National Pharmaceutical Group. Under the agreement between the two countries, the Chinese company will provide 18 million doses of vaccine, of which 15 million will be produced by the Indonesian state pharmaceutical company BioFarma.
70% “threshold”
Vaccine research and development are progressing by leaps and bounds, but the rebound in the epidemic has also intensified. The latest data on the new corona epidemic released by the World Health Organization shows that at 3:32 p.m. Central European Time, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has risen by 6,573.12 compared to with the day before, breaking the record set the day before and setting a new global increase in a single day since the outbreak. The number of confirmed cases reached a new record. So far, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 53 million and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.3 million.
The United States and Europe continue to be the worst affected areas. The data shows that among the nearly 660,000 new confirmed cases reported on the 14th, more than 285,000 were reported in Europe and more than 269,000 in the Americas. Specifically, the United States, India and Brazil are the countries with the highest cumulative number of confirmed cases in the world, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the three countries is close to half of the world total.
The serious epidemic situation seems to counteract the optimism that vaccines bring. On the 11th of this month, Sumia Swaminathan, chief scientist at the World Health Organization, noted that if the new coronavirus vaccine, which is currently in the final stages of development, is finally successful, about 70% of the world’s population will be vaccinated to ensure the end of the pandemic. O’Brien, director of the WHO Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologics, also said that no company developing a new corona vaccine can immediately provide everyone with the required dose. Therefore, even if one laboratory is ahead of others, all laboratories must continue to conduct research and development, which is very important.
Zhang Wenhong, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of Huashan Hospital affiliated with Fudan University, also recently mentioned that only 60% of the population is vaccinated will be helpful. If this coverage rate is not achieved, the spread of the new corona pneumonia virus will not be effectively prevented. Zhang Wenhong predicts that the new crown vaccine is expected to be on the market by the end of this year or early next. If nothing happens, everyone can pack their bags again in the spring of 2022 and travel the world.
But he also added that the prerequisite for the realization of “walking” is that the world must work together. “In the end, everyone has to eat from the same pot, and the food on the table is the vaccine.”
By contrast, Tao Lina, a former vaccine expert at the Shanghai CDC, is relatively optimistic. Tao Lina analyzed a Beijing Business Daily reporter who previously predicted that China’s vaccines would be used in large-scale emergency situations in late October or would be listed under conditional conditions. In fact, Zhejiang Province has started to be used as emergency use throughout the province after the “eleventh” holiday. He believes that the United States is likely to approve the marketing of the Pfizer vaccine before December. After Pfizer Vaccine released the news, Sinopharm said the clinical trial data was better than expected. Therefore, Sinopharm’s inactivated vaccine will reveal clinical trial data before December. It is also a high probability event that the approval of the list will occur in late December.
Vaccines save the economy
Right now, with the rebound in the epidemic, the shadow of the blockade has reappeared, which is why many people are betting on a vaccine for economic recovery. This is evident from the news that Pfizer has launched a successful vaccine development, which has sparked a carnival in the global capital market overnight. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at PantheonMacro, once told investors that there will be a “boom in large-scale consumption” in the United States after the vaccine is listed.
Taolina said that the vaccine protection period is still uncertain, but according to his understanding of active vaccines, the protection of the COVID-19 vaccine should be expected for 2-3 years. If the protection rate of the vaccine exceeds 90% and the period of protection exceeds one year, the vaccine can become the hope of saving the world economy. However, the premise is to maintain a high level of vaccination rate. Personally, I consider that the vaccination rate should be above 70%. To achieve this goal, three points are required: sufficient vaccine production capacity, free vaccination provided by the government, and sufficient incentives or mandatory measures for the public to allow it. vaccination.
The impact of the pandemic is unprecedented, and this has also led to a sharp rise in expectations for vaccines to save the economy. In last month’s World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continued to predict that the world economy will experience a severe recession in 2020. The IMF forecasts that world economic growth in 2020 is expected to be -4.4% , but this is 0.8% more than the latest June data.
Even if eurozone GDP in the third quarter rose 12.6% from the previous quarter, the ongoing outbreak of the epidemic also raises concerns that the eurozone economy will bottom out again. For example, not so long ago, Capital Economics chief European economist Andrew Kenningham said in a report: “The substantial increase in French GDP in the third quarter is no comfort to French policy makers and families. Currently, compete with the second Fight against the blockade “.
For this reason, UBS President Axel Weber warned that even if the vaccine is put into use, it will take some time for the world economy to return to the pre-crisis level. In an interview, Weber said that recovering from the epidemic is a fairly long process. Even if the vaccine is put into use, it will take at least a year for global GDP to return to pre-crisis levels, and it will take one to two years for employment data and economic growth to recover. . Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, also mentioned that the vaccine itself is good news, but large-scale distribution takes time and there is uncertainty about how many people are voluntarily vaccinated.
Medical expert Zhao Heng also told reporters from the Beijing Business Daily that the epidemic will not stop completely at once. There must be a process for vaccination, and the cost is related to whether the country will subsidize it, and the situation in each country is different. Currently, the vaccine is still in phase III clinical trials and has not yet been launched on a large scale. How can it be released next year? It will take more than a year for more than 70% of the population to be vaccinated.
This also means that it will take between one and two years for vaccines to save the economy and restore it before the epidemic. Zhao Heng added that, of course, it is not ruled out that the epidemic will suddenly disappear, but the possibility of this happening is very small. In addition, judging by the situation of the Spanish pandemic, the second wave of viruses is stronger than the first, so now everyone has the vaccines, and the situation has yet to be observed.
Beijing Business Daily Reporter Yang Yuehan
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