[ad_1]
Monarch Strategy: Credit Risk Disruption is Just One Episode of Recommended Shock Pattern Consumer Optional + Made in China
The credit risk shock is just one episode of the shock pattern, keeping the 3100-3500 point shock pattern unchanged. Under the downside risk appetite, embrace the return certainty premium, profit from low-risk stocks, and recommend the two main lines of optional consumer + Made in China.
Haitong Strategy: Credit Debt Defaults Disturbing Stock Market and Does Not Change Bull Market
The recent outbreak of credit default incidents has also hit the stock market, and some investors are concerned that the ups and downs of the credit bond market will drag the stock market down. Overall, we believe that the credit default event will not affect the bull market pattern, and the market is still in the second stage of the three-stage bull market rocket. Also, many investors feel that A shares will usher in a long bull down the road, which may mean short-term gains are limited, so not everyone is excited or confident about short-term market conditions. . We agree with the Long Bull trend, but at the same time we believe that the Long Bull is made up of multiple rounds of bulls and bears. The market has not risen steadily and slowly throughout the bullish process, and is more likely to move upward in a zigzag pattern.
Guosheng strategy: New Year’s Eve market continues to use shocks to actively unfold
Short-term risk events are unsettling, but they won’t change the uptrend of the market. Yongmei Coal Group’s recent than expected default has caused yet another shock to market risk appetite and dragged it lower. Market concerns about credit default incidents are primarily focused on the short-term asset sales or redemption pressure that it caused, increased risk premiums, increased financing costs, and subsequent credit crunch. However, referring to historical experience, the impact of credit default is primarily a short-term impulsive shock. As the market clears up further, it is expected to return to an upward trend.
Founder’s Strategy: Yongmei’s event remains isolated and the probability is too high. The stock market will revert to its own logic
The probability that the Yongmei event will remain at an isolated level is relatively high and the duration can be short. Once the liquidity crisis is alleviated, the stock market will return to its own logic and continue to assess the economic recovery. At the same time, with the attention and intervention of all parties, the probability of a single credit event evolving into comprehensive credit risk and triggering a credit crunch is low, and the economic recovery process is disrupted but management remains uneven. changes.
Guangdong Development Strategy: RCEP Signed To Boost Market Sentiment, Shanghai Index Advance Chart Expected
On November 15, 15 countries signed the RCEP, which marks the official conclusion of the world’s largest free trade agreement. The establishment of a super economic circle under China’s leadership will usher in investment opportunities in related issues, helping to boost market confidence. If the thematic sector can continue to be active, it will help the general restoration of market sentiment and will also play a leading role in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. If the volume can be effectively amplified at the same time, after the consolidation of the short-term shock, the Shanghai Index is expected to reach the 3400 resistance area again. Compared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index , the ChiNext Index has stabilized in the past two trading days after two consecutive days of sharp declines on Tuesday and Wednesday, with limited short-term bearish momentum. Even if the ChiNext index continues to decline, the area below 2500-2600 points has strong support, and the space to the downside is narrowing, and a repairable bounce can be fixed in advance.
Anxin Strategy: Waiting for the Chance to Dive
Overall, we believe that short-term market risk appetite and liquidity expectations will diminish somewhat, but the market impact on credit events and tighter monetary policy also shows signs of undue concern. With the approach looming, the continued recovery of the Chinese economy and the boost in liquidity expectations early in the year, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate higher. The direction of the allocation is based on procyclical prosperity, manufacturing performance, and price increases in the early stages. At the same time, it focuses on clean energy, the “14th five-year plan”, the weak US dollar, the repair of trade between China and the United States and other directions. The industry focuses on: chemical industry, coal, non-ferrous metals, white electricity, steel, electronics, machinery, automobiles (including the new energy automotive industry chain), etc.
Tianfeng strategy: “Preliminary credit crunch” to understand the certainty of performance and remain optimistic about two main directions
In the early stage of the credit cycle decline, it is difficult to improve the overall valuation. However, the direction of good performance will become the main line of the market and will even have opportunities to improve the structural valuation. For example, the ChiNext during the 13-year credit crunch period (the mobile internet cycle) and the CSI 300 during the 17-year credit crunch period (the shed reform) + Offer + first year of foreign investment ). Looking ahead, in the next stage, we will still seek the direction of dominant medium-term performance from two dimensions: (1) Driven by the industrial cycle, high-performance growth may continue in the direction next year: high-performance manufacturing range (production line equipment, military upstream, new energy (automobiles, consumer electronics). (2) Damaged by epidemic, but marginal improvement in Q3 performance overlapped all three quarterly reports to exceed expectations: consumption optional (appliances, cars, furniture, insurance).
Investment strategy: the impact of the default of credit bonds in the stock market is mainly based on the suppression of the appetite for risk and related actions
With the current monetary policy and credit environment still good, the impact of credit bond default on the stock market is expected to be dominated by the suppression of risk appetite and the impact of related stocks, and it is difficult evolve towards large-scale impact in the short term. The upward direction of the economic recovery remains unchanged, with the design idea following the export chain and post-cycle to real estate, bulk category, financial real estate, and other pro-cyclical low valuations.
China Industrial Securities Strategy: Pay Attention To The Impact Of Short-Term Bond Defaults On Liquidity, Capture The Rebound Market Structural Main Line
Seize the structural main line of the recovery market. The economic recovery, internal and external resonance, the recovery cycle continues, the economic ups and downs are the consensus and the structural bright spot is the investment opportunities. At the end of the year, the recovery market leads the market opportunities. Capture ①the service industry that will be damaged in 2020 and benefit in 2021; ②the chain of export advantages with superior supply and demand abroad. Pay attention to short-term bond defaults, liquidity shocks, institutional trampling, and the shock to the stock market. The revaluation of the risk system in the medium and long term favors capital investment.
Source: financial industry websiteReturn to Sohu to see more
Editor:
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article only represent the author himself. Sohu is an information publishing platform. Sohu only provides storage space services.
[ad_2]