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A recent study by the Brookings Institution shows that Republicans and Democrats in the United States make very different contributions to the American economy.
The study found that there were 2,497 counties supporting Donald Trump in the 2020 US presidential election, but these cities together contributed only 29% of US GDP. By contrast, the 477 counties that supported a Joe Biden created 70% of the US GDP.
Mark Muro, head of the study, believes that the adjustment of US economic strategy in the last 20 years combined with the movement of part of the population is the direct cause of the divergence of economic interests between the two parties.
“It’s obvious that the United States, which has been driven by education, city-oriented and a service economy for the past 20 years, is more development-friendly than big cities.” Muro said: “If this trend continues, the contribution of large cities to GDP will increase. High. But at the same time, it has also been accompanied by a large number of population movements. In the last 20 years, the population of backward areas as small and medium-sized cities and rural areas it has been continuously migrating outward. “
In such circumstances, densely populated cities such as New York City and Silicon Valley have become centers of economic growth, and a large number of financial, technology, and service industries are entrenched here, leading them to become the weather vane. of the global commodity market. These cities tend to pay more attention to environmental problems and are used to practicing industrial automation, while threatening the economic situation of rural areas, as the latter are more dependent on agriculture, fossil fuels and manufacturing traditional.
The phenomenon of “brain drain” has also been very serious during these 20 years. Large numbers of educated intellectuals flocked to cities from remote counties. In short, the urban prosperity of the past 20 years in the United States was based entirely on the sacrifice of rural areas.
If we carefully analyze the map of this presidential election, we can find that there is a close relationship between the political trends of each region and the economic division of labor in this region: people with higher education tend to live in large cities and support the Democratic Party. While small urban and rural areas often support the Republican Party because they represent the interests of less educated people and grassroots white workers.
Muro also added that some Republicans living in remote areas also work in big cities, so their GDP is still included in big cities, so current GDP data may be more different from actual. Despite this, Muro remains very concerned about the growing differences between Democrats and Republicans on economic issues, after all, 20 years ago, the contribution to GDP of the counterparts of the two parties was quite balanced. In the 2000 US presidential elections, the areas that supported Bush Jr. accounted for only 54% of US GDP.
“The political stalemate we are currently facing is in sync with the economic divide.” Muro said: “This is where I worry the most. In the past, rural and urban areas were responsible for manufacturing at the same time, but now most traditional industries only depend on In the field, it is difficult for you to find one. big city with manufacturing as the main line of development. Similarly, it is also difficult for you to find early software developers in rural areas. The current situation complicates the problem. “
Muro believes that the key to adjusting the distribution of urban and rural roles lies in “ensuring that more central states can build new medium-scale subways.” Muro noted: “Investment in technical infrastructure, vocational training and education are vital to revitalize the rural economy. You can also prevent future talent losses. “
It’s worth noting that the Trump-supported counties are not only far lower in terms of GDP performance, but also significantly lower than large cities in terms of employment and median household income. If the United States cannot bridge the gap between urban and rural areas as quickly as possible, the differences between Democrats and Republicans will only grow larger and larger, which can eventually cause an existential crisis.
“On the one hand, when explaining the reasons for the decline of American rule, some people often say: ‘The economic power of the United States itself has risen to the top, and it is difficult to manage and improve it.’ But in fact , this is just a trivial and encouraging rhetoric “Muro emphasized:” Today’s tit-for-tat opposition is intensifying and the United States is in danger of division. ” (Fortune Chinese Network)
Compiler: Chen Yixuan
Republicans and Democrats make very different contributions to the American economy, according to a new study from the Brookings Institution.
In the 2020 election, Brookings found that the 2,497 counties across the country that voted for President Donald Trump generate 29% of U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 477 counties won by President-elect Joe Biden contribute to the 70% of the US economy.
According to the study’s lead author, Mark Muro, a reorientation of the economy, in addition to a relocation of a portion of the American population over the past 20 years, explains the growing divide between the economic interests of the two parties.
“Clearly, the rise of a city-oriented, education-driven professional services economy over the past 20 years is a huge driver,” Muro said. “So if nothing else happened, we would see the increasing importance in terms of GDP of these large urban counties… But also people were not staying in the same place. The last 20 years have also seen a constant emigration from an anemic and small rural economy.
At the same time that densely populated urban areas such as New York City or Silicon Valley have become home to the main drivers of the nation’s economic growth (the financial services, technology and professional services industries), the major trends In world commodity markets, recognition of the impact of global warming and automation have had an impact on large swaths of rural America that depend on agriculture, fossil fuel production, and manufacturing, respectively, as foundations for its economy, according to Muro.
Add in the “brain drain” that has seen many educated people flocking to cities far from outlying counties, and you’ve got a pretty good idea why urban areas have prospered at the expense of rural communities over the past two years. decades.
And, of course, any electoral map will tell you that the nation’s geographic divide has reflected its political divide: while a diverse set of college-educated people tend to reside in metropolitan counties and vote for the white, blue, and white workforce. less educated than endorsing Republican policies largely represent rural communities in the country’s small towns.
Muro acknowledged that some Republicans may work in metropolitan counties themselves – and thus contribute to their GDP – but live full-time in peripheral counties, which could make the GDP statistic appear more uneven than it actually is. However, Muro remains extremely concerned about the growing divide between the economic interests of Republicans and Democrats. By context, in the 2000 presidential election, the winner took the counties that accounted for just 54% of America’s GDP.
“So now we have this extreme political stalemate that lines up with this very deep economic divide,” Muro said. “That is what is so concerning. It used to be that the manufacturing economy, for example, was both urban and rural. It is now mostly rural and has a hard time finding an industrial city. Similarly, it is quite difficult to find early stage software development in rural America. The lineups here have made the problem difficult. “
Muro believes that the key to realigning interests between urban and rural America is “to make sure more downtown states are anchored in dynamic mid-size metropolitan areas.” Investing in technology infrastructure, job training and education in the heart of the United States will be essential both to revitalize rural economies and to prevent future brain drain, Muro said.
As it stands today, the counties Trump won in the 2020 election are not only worse off with respect to contribution to GDP, but they also suffer from lower job growth and lower average household income levels than their urban counterparts. . If we cannot develop a solution that closes the gap between urban and rural, Democratic and Republican interests, Muro worries that the country faces an existential crisis.
“On the one hand, we can see a fading of the preeminence of the United States because this is not a way to manage and promote a globally competitive national economy,” Muro said. “So that’s the most encouraging thing anyone could say. The worst that can be said is that there is actually a backlash, a kind of real violent division or rejection, a kind of secession. “
