Europe faces an economic and epidemic dilemma

Original title: Europe faces an epidemic and an economic dilemma

Since October, the epidemic has returned in many European countries. Great powers such as Germany and France have issued new bans, which although much softer than this spring, will also cause part of the economy.societyThe stagnation of life causes relatively significant economic losses. The German research institute estimates that within a month, the loss caused by the traffic restraining order may be close to 20 billionEUR, France has also taken the corresponding emergency action orders to deal with the violent epidemic of the new crown. Compared to the first wave of the epidemic, the response plans of European governments are more mature and soft, because they have a deeper understanding of the new coronavirus. After nearly a year of epidemic prevention and control, various prevention, control, and treatment plans have undergone trial, error, and correction. Balancing epidemic prevention and control with the economic and social order is a challenge to European governments face.

Recently enacted travel restrictions in Germany stipulate that theaters, museums, gyms, cinemas and bars will be temporarily closed for one month, restaurants only allow takeout, hotels cannot receive guests from elsewhere, and parties with more than two families are not allowed, up to 10 people. Compared to prevention and control during the previous round of the epidemic, schools, churches, etc. they will remain open as usual under strict measures. For the German people, this restraining order should be softer. Some people call it a “half-closed city”. Even so, the common German people are quite unhappy with this restriction.economistGermany is expected to lose 100,000 in the fourth quarterjobSend, The number of part-time jobs subsidized by the government will increase by 400,000 to 3.2 million. In other words, during the epidemic, epidemic prevention and control and employment have the same dilemma as fish and bear claw.

Obviously, European countries are not fully prepared for this autumn-winter epidemic. When the epidemic reappeared in September and the number of confirmed cases began to show an exponential increase, French ScienceCommitteeAnd the Health Ministry proposed a plan to combat the epidemic, but the Macron government did not.to accept. At the end of October, more than 400 people were dying every day from the new corona epidemic in France, which caught the attention of the Macron government. Should a health emergency be adopted to restrict travel? During the discussions in the National Assembly, the French Minister of Health went crazy. The reason was that Parliament kept having boring discussions, but now the epidemic is fierce, especially when the Minister of Health saw in the intensive care unit that young patients can only depend on intubation to stay alive. In other words, is it deadly or free? After the latest wave of epidemics, French research institutions found that people with low incomes and poor living conditions are more threatened by the new crown. This finding is actually common sense. For a “crafty” virus like the new corona virus, keep social distance and strict quarantine. Isolation is effective in blocking the spread of the virus.ChainMethods.

Compared to hesitations or parliamentary disputes in France, the Germans have better discipline. Germany’s results in the first wave of epidemic prevention and control have received attention and praise, and are considered the “best students” in epidemic prevention and control in Europe. German ChancellorMerckAfter meeting with the leaders of the 16 German federal states at the end of last month, he said that we must tackle the epidemic head-on. Of the latest epidemic prevention measuresobjectivesIt is about reducing the social contact of non-residents by 75%, to restore the level of less than 50 confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants, only in this way can the chain of contagion be broken. If this prohibition can be obtainedEffective execution, Germany is expected to basically control the spread of the new corona virus by the end of November.

The epidemic has already receded, why is it suddenly reappearing in Europe? From the perspective of the prevention and control of the epidemic in the past year, the new corona virus is very stubborn and cunning. The virus has mutated and can be more contagious. Of course, the death rate is not as severe as at the beginning. The new corona virus can last a long time. There is. Scientists also predicted that we might have to coexist with the new coronavirus for a long time. The second wave of the epidemic in Europe seems to confirm this judgment. How to live with the virus and protect lives has become a problem that governments must take seriously. Of course, this is also a challenge that every individual must face, that is. What is the price or willingness to pay to protect your life and health?

The resurgence of the epidemic is also related to the rapid liberation of European countries in the summer. Of course, if it is not released, the economy and society will be unbearable. Preventing and controlling the epidemic by blocking is difficult to maintain and is more like a tactical advance. From the perspective of normal prevention and control of the epidemic, there is still a need for a more flexible strategy.mechanismThat is, a mode of prevention and control with a degree of relaxation, similar to guerrilla warfare, when the enemy advances and retreats, and when the virus attacks, a stricter prohibition will be adopted. When the epidemic is alleviated, the ban will be properly unlocked. Through such a long war, it is possible A way and a way to live in peace with the virus.

For European countries, even if the government is determined to prevent and control, it still needs to meet various social demands Some people joked that for Europeans, holidays are as important as life.After unlocking, the holidays of Europeans are resumed as before, even the “retaliation” vacation orconsumptionFurthermore, in some street demonstrations, almost no one wore masks, leading to serious infections.riskThe order of life under the prevention and control of the new corona epidemic should be different, especially the gathering of people will provide a good means for the spread of the virus, which requires a reduction to stop the spread of the virus.Social activitiesFrom the common sense of life, this is indisputable, but in European society, the consciousness of individual freedom is very strong, which impliesTeam workDilemma.

The prevention and control of epidemics must work together, like a wooden barrel, once there is a deficiency, the virus will “break out” in large numbers. How can we avoid deficiencies? One is to reach consensus through discussion to form epidemic prevention and control measures, but this is a very long process and such procedural discussions cannot be resolved.Crisis managementChallenges. The second is that the government is taking vigorous measures to establish a normal epidemic prevention and control mechanism, which of course involves coordination between government and society. This will lead to different models of epidemic prevention and control, but models prevention and control of epidemics will be more homogeneous. The central logic is the relationship between humans and viruses.interactiveOr the coexistence model, of course, this goes far beyond the political and social model based on the relationship between people.

The author is the Vice Dean of the Jilin University School of Public Diplomacy.

(Article source: ChinaOperatingnet)

(Responsible editor: DF064)