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Original title: Decision Analysis: Can There Be Results Today? ! Biden is only 6 votes away from victory, Trump takes a fighting stance, don’t forget about non-farms
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Friday (Nov 6) Asian trading hours, the market is still quiet, still awaiting the results of the US elections, the balance of the current victory has tilted towards Biden and Trump has promised to appeal to In the Supreme Court, a tumult can be inevitable.
At the close of the Asian market, the Australian ASX200 index closed up 0.82%; the Nikkei 225 Index closed 0.91% higher; South Korea’s KOSPI index closed 0.11% higher. Overall pressure on A shares fell.
In the currency market, the US dollar tumbled nearly 100 points yesterday and remained under pressure. It is currently trading at around 92.60. Non-US currencies have fluctuated and general trading is limited.
In terms of commodities, spot gold fell from a high during the day. The current trading volume is around $ 1,940. Silver fell slightly after rising 6% yesterday.
Investors’ focus on Friday may remain the US general election, focusing on several swing states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania. According to the Associated Press, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has won 264 electoral votes, 6 votes less than the 270 needed to enter the White House.
Based on current progress, 99% of the votes have been counted in Georgia. Both Trump and Biden have 49.4% of the vote. Trump is only ahead of 1,267 votes. It is estimated that more than 67,931 votes have yet to be counted. Georgia has 16 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania has already counted 95% of the votes, Trump has 49.6% of the votes and Biden has 49.3% of the votes. Trump’s advantage has been shrinking. There are an estimated 366,000 votes that have yet to be counted. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes.
Currently, Biden maintains the lead over Trump, but several major states are still counting the votes. Trump is challenging the vote count, so there is still a high degree of uncertainty.
With the gradual advancement of vote-counting work in various battlefield states, the chances of reelection of current US President Trump have become increasingly slim. On Thursday he lashed out at the White House against the American democratic process, declaring that his election results were “stolen.”
Democratic presidential candidate Biden called on the public to remain calm and patient, while Republican Trump took a fighting stance on Thursday, slandering the election he found unfavorable in every way possible.
“If you count the legitimate votes, I will win easily,” Trump said in a speech at the White House. This is his first public appearance since Wednesday morning. “The current situation is that they are trying to steal the elections. They are trying to manipulate the elections and we cannot allow this to happen.”
Schroders commented Friday that while Democrat Biden is expected to be elected president of the United States, the possibility of the Democratic Party running the Senate has disappeared. This means that the US Congress will usher in a “bipartisan” situation, and this stalemate has made it impossible to pass the economic stimulus plan, which can paralyze the local economy.
In addition to the US general election, investors will also focus on the US non-farm employment data released at 9:30 PM on Friday Beijing time.
Authoritative media surveys show that non-farm employment in the United States is expected to increase by 600,000 in October, and non-farm employment in September increased by 661,000. The unemployment rate may drop to 7.7% from 7.9% in September.
Intraday approach and weather vane:
3:45 PM French trade account in September
16:30 UK October Halifax Monthly rate of the seasonally adjusted House Price Index
9:30 PM US Non-Farm Employment Population and Unemployment Rate After Seasonal Adjustment in October
9:30 PM Employment in Canada in October
22:00 Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada McCallum
23:00 Monthly rate of US wholesales in September
The total number of oil rigs from the United States as of November 6 at 02:00 the next day
Analysis of the main currencies:
Euro: After the euro / dollar rose above the 1.18 mark after rising more than 100 points yesterday, it is now consolidating around 1.1830. From a technical perspective, the MACD red kinetic energy column on the daily chart initially appeared, the RSI indicator remained stable above the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator broke the 50 level, indicating that there is still room for price increases. . Initial short-term support is at 1.1780 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1860.
GBP: GBP / USD broke the 1.31 mark after breaking above 160 points yesterday and is currently above this level. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD red kinetic energy column gradually expanded, the RSI indicator held around the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator broke the 50 level, suggesting that the price is expected to rise further. Initial short-term support is at 1.3100 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.3176.
Yen: USD / JPY remains under pressure after falling almost 100 points yesterday, and is currently trading around 103.30. Technically, the MACD green kinetic energy column on the daily chart is gradually expanding, the RSI indicator continues to touch the oversold level, and the KDJ indicator is approaching the oversold level. The price is expected to consolidate. Initial short-term support is at 103.00 and initial resistance is at 103.90.
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