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Original title: What will happen if Trump does not admit defeat?
The US elections remain stagnant and Trump, who is behind schedule, has proposed to recount the votes in Wisconsin. The US media noted that Trump needs to pay about $ 3 million for the recount, and his campaign team is asking his supporters for “help.”
At the same time, the United States faces a very real problem: Even if Biden is a winner in public opinion and electoral votes, Trump can still refuse to admit defeat.
The American media analyzed various possibilities that Trump refuses to admit defeat, in the worst case a constitutional crisis will come.
The cruel words that Trump said
The fear of Trump’s refusal to admit defeat is not unfounded. In the weeks leading up to the elections, he repeatedly claimed that he could reject the peaceful transfer of power and strongly doubted the reliability of the votes sent by mail.
On September 23, Trump said that if the votes showed that Biden won the election, he would not promise a peaceful transfer of power. “We have to see what happens when that happens. You know, I’ve always complained strongly about sending votes by mail, (sending) votes is a disaster.”
President of the United States, Trump
As the general election approaches, some states have decided to extend the deadline for mailing ballots. Trump was very unhappy with this, emphasizing that “the election must end on November 3,” regardless of the ballots sent after that.
Trump has also repeatedly hinted that if he is going to accept Biden’s victory, the only way is to go through the Supreme Court. Not long ago, after the death of Liberal Justice Ginsberg, Trump quickly nominated Conservative Justice Barrett to fill the vacancy. He made it clear that he hoped Barrett could serve on the Supreme Court to rule on disputes that occurred during the election.
Trump and Barrett (right)
Trump appears to have prepared accordingly. On the Sunday before Election Day, he told reporters: “As soon as the elections are over, we will speak to the lawyer.”
How Trump Will Challenge Election Results
The American media believe that Trump can refuse to admit defeat in several different ways.
The first scenario is that if the vote count on Election Day shows Trump leading by a narrow margin, he will declare victory before the final result is announced. The source told the Axios website that Trump has always planned to do so.
Although Trump denied these reports on November 1, he did so on November 4.
At 2 a.m. local time on the 4th, Trump delivered his first speech after Election Day in the east wing of the White House. When the final vote count has not yet been announced, he said: “We are preparing to win this election, be honest. Let’s just say, we have won this election.”
Trump also stated that he plans to file a lawsuit in the Federal Supreme Court, requesting that as of 4 a.m. on the 4th he stop receiving votes by mail.
On November 3, people watched the results of the vote count in real time in Times Square, New York, USA.
Another situation is that the final vote count showed that Biden had a narrow margin over Trump in both the general elections and the Electoral College, but Trump refused to accept these results on the grounds of electoral fraud and illegal votes.
Also in the early hours of the 4th, Trump baselessly called the election a “fraud of the American public … an embarrassment to our country.” CNN noted that Trump insists that the states he leads must stop counting votes – in fact, many legal votes have not been counted.
He also wrote on Twitter: “We are very shocked that (the Democrats) are trying to steal the American election. We will never allow them to succeed. After the polls close, (they should) not be able to vote again!” The special official directly bookmarked and concealed his message, and set a limit for sharing the post to prevent further publicity.
As the current president, Trump has tremendous power. As Rosa Brooks, founder of the Transition Integrity Project, a nonpartisan organization, noted, Biden can only hold a press conference, but Trump can mobilize the 82nd Airborne Division.
On November 3, workers installed protective panels for a store in New York, United States.
Experts predict that in the worst case, Trump’s refusal to accept the election result will trigger a constitutional crisis, as well as widespread social unrest and possible violent partisan conflicts. According to the report of the project “Complete Transition Plan”, “the possibility of a violent conflict after the elections is very high”.
What will happen if Trump refuses to make concessions?
In fact, simply tweeting that the election was “rigged” is not enough to overturn the vote count. Benjamin Ginsberg, a well-known attorney who has served as a longtime Republican election attorney and played an important role on the Bush team in the 2000 vote count lawsuit, noted that “in order to be successful in charging the election with fraud, Presidential candidates must be region by region. It shows that it is necessary to collect enough fraudulent votes to change the electoral results. Exaggerated comments will have no impact on the electoral litigation. “
In addition to taking the lawsuit to the Supreme Court, Trump and his team have a theoretical way to win: Let the Republican-controlled state legislature designate Trump supporters to the “electoral college” (electoral college). Trump.
Although for most of the history of the United States, each state allowed the people to vote to determine the elector, but “AtlanticThe Monthly Magazine reported that the state legislature can easily choose to withdraw voting rights, because the constitution fully delegates the appointment of electors to the states.
Edward Foley, a professor of constitutional law at Ohio State University and an expert on electoral law, noted that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina, where competition is fierce and the governor and legislature belong to different parties, the governor (Democrat) and the state legislature (Republican) can present two different election results. But in this case, it is still not conclusive whether Congress should accept the governor’s electoral list or not count the electoral votes of the state.
Trump (left) and Biden
How to deal with two different election results? According to Reuters, academics have proposed two possibilities: first, if the two sides cannot reach an agreement at all, current Vice President Pence, as president of the Senate, can decide who is elected; Another view is that the House of Representatives will eventually settle on Biden and Trump chooses between.
There is even the most unexpected situation: the two sides are stagnant and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi, may become interim president.
Although the chance of it happening is very small, no matter which of the aforementioned situations eventually occurs, it means that the United States faces a constitutional crisis.
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Editor in Charge: Liu Wanli SF014
