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Original title: Beware of the game! Don’t stare at which one wins. Voting fights in the two houses are more important.
[Reportero de Global Times-Global Network, Bai Yunyi, Li Sikun, Yang Sheng]Although the chances of a Democratic candidate visiting the White House are increasing, even if he succeeds in being elected president of the United States, he may face at least two years of difficult rule. Time: Because the possibility of Democrats controlling the Senate majority is drastically diminishing. After watching the US elections on the second day, analysts told the Global Times reporter on the 5th that the United States could be facing the “divide and conquer the government” situation for the first newly elected president after 1980. This means The new president will face enormous constraints in promoting important staff appointments and controversial central policies, also indicating that the political divide between the two parties has reached a new level.
On November 3, in addition to the presidential elections in the United States, the Senate and the House of Representatives will also hold re-elections. Although not as tall and flashy as the presidential election, this congressional election is also vital to American politics: not only because of its direct and traditional influence on the balance of power within Washington, but also because of the growing differences between the two. matches. At present, the structure of the two chambers is likely to affect political and social trends in the United States for years to come.
As of early morning on the 5th United States time, the Republican Party has won 48 seats in the Senate, which is 3 seats away from the simple majority of 51. The media commented that this “drastically reduced the possibility that Democrats control the majority of the Senate. ” In the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party currently has 204 seats, which is 14 seats away from a simple majority of 218 seats. However, it is generally believed that the Democratic Party will continue to maintain control of the House of Representatives. This means that Washington can usher in a “White House-Blue; Senate-Red; House of Representatives-Blue” political pattern.
“This will mean that even if the Democratic Party wins the presidency, it will face an extremely difficult start.” Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 5th that the new president plans to appoint 15 Cabinet ministers and their respective executive vice ministers require the approval of the Senate. In appointing some officials in charge of controversial issues, the Republican Party is likely to stymie and delay approval. Especially when the results of the presidential elections also face litigation disputes, this uncertainty has increased rapidly.
Ni Feng analyzed that the will of the Democratic Party to change Trump’s four-year tenure policy is very strong, especially in the areas of taxes, health reform, immigration and climate change. He predicts that if Biden is elected, the first major policy change he promotes after his inauguration is likely to be in the field of health care reform, in exchange for his engagement with voters during the election campaign. . Also, tax reform is likely to be on the short-term agenda. Although the primary power to advance America’s domestic agenda rests with the House of Representatives, the voice of the Senate should not yet be underestimated. He speculated that the two tax and health reform agendas will be the first to face strong resistance from the Republican Party in the Senate.
Could Democrats use mediation to persuade some moderate Republican senators to change their positions in order to advance their own important agenda? Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute for American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter that while Biden and Harris have experience and connections in the Senate, they can appropriately increase flexibility and space for exchange and engagement. between the two parties. However, the current faction of the American party Disputes have become an important part of the political polarization in the United States. “Just look at the game, regardless of whether it is good or bad.” Personal relationships, mediation, and lobbying have been difficult to resolve.
In fact, this “partisan” opposition has appeared clearly in the US Congress: two months ago, after the death of liberal Justice Ginsberg, Trump and the Republican-controlled Senate could be in dispute. It is very simple and fast to nominate and confirm a new Conservative Justice on the Supreme Court, and it is difficult for Democratic senators and the party-controlled House of Representatives to stop him.
“From the performance of Senate Majority Leader McConnell in recent years, we can see that other things can be postponed, but major events like the approval of judges that can have decades of influence must be swift, making Trump nominated the nomination during his tenure. “America’s judges are much more amazing,” Sun Taiyi, assistant professor at Christopher Newport University in the United States, told the Global Times. “So even moderate Republicans like Romney don’t they will backtrack on important agendas. Divide and rule will greatly weaken the Democratic Party’s ability to act. “
Can a majority in the House of Representatives help the Democrats out of this dilemma? I’m afraid it may not be easy. Ni Feng believes that not to mention that Democrats in the House of Representatives also received a strong counterattack from Republicans and lost some seats. Under the current situation, even if Biden wins the White House, the Democrats will have a “tragic victory” rather than the expected “overwhelming.” victory. “This proves that the power that Trump represents remains very strong. In this situation, the Democratic Party must also rethink the intensity of policy adjustments in the Trump era. It is expected that there will not be much room for adjustments in various fields. .
What impact will Washington’s “blue-red-blue” checks and balances of power have on US policy toward China? Analysts generally believe that being tough on China has become one of the few issues of consensus between the two parties. No matter who controls the Senate and House of Representatives, Sino-US relations cannot change the downward trend.
Yuan Zheng pointed out that in recent years, the Senate and House of Representatives have passed many anti-China bills involving Xinjiang and Hong Kong with high votes. This is enough to explain the problem. There is not much difference between the two games in terms of their toughness against China. “But since relations between China and the United States have been extremely bad, it is still easy for Biden to make slight improvements in certain areas. In the future, China and the United States are expected to restore some space for cooperation in the areas of health. public, climate and gun control “.
“The relationship between China and the United States is nothing more than a ‘falling free fall’ to a ‘slow fall’,” Ni Feng described to a Global Times reporter, influenced by Trump’s political legacy and the impression that the American public has from China. By contrast, the adjustment space for Biden’s policy in China has been very narrow, “However, even if it’s just to slow some of the ‘down’ speed, it’s good for both countries.”
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