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Original title: Observation of Lu Lou | “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” handed over the approval document, there are three more things to watch in the Qingdao real estate market by the end of the year
Judging from the volume of transactions in the first 10 months, the fundamentals of the Qingdao real estate market are relatively stable.
According to Ruili statistics, Qingdao has signed a total of 109,818 newly constructed commercial houses (excluding affordable housing, the following is the newly constructed commercial house data) from January to October 2020, with a sales area of 12.8205 million square meters and a total sales amount of 189.876 billion. yuan. The number of contracted sets decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, the contracted area was almost the same as the same period of the previous year and the amount contracted increased by 2.9% year-on-year.
In the first 10 months, the city signed a total of 95,797 newly built residential units, with a sales area of 11.4754 million square meters and a total sales amount of 169.083 million yuan. The number of units contracted, the sales area and the total amount of sales increased, with year-on-year increases of 5.3%, 4.5% and 8.6% respectively.
The international situation this year is complicated. It is not easy for Qingdao to present such a “report card” in the first 10 months. However, we still need to see the quirks behind this “transcript” through the list of individual transactions.
The high-end market can become the key to the real estate market
Data source: Zhuoyi Data
In the first half of this year, home buyers have low capital costs to enter the market, and there is strong demand for improvement from mid-tier and upper-tier customer groups. Therefore, Yinfeng Jiu Xicheng, Poly Da Guojing and other major cities successfully entered the TOP 5, and Sino-Ocean Wanhe Mansion, which failed to enter the list, Jinmao Mansion, Sino-Ocean Wanhe City, Jiayuan Huafu and other real estate sales are good too. This situation can be seen in the transaction volume of various districts and cities in the main city of Qingdao. Shibei District’s transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year was 6,392, which exceeded the total of 6,330 units in 2019; although 2,718 units are still found in Laoshan district Not as good as last year’s total, but this year it is dominated by luxury homes. The total transaction volume of more than 30 billion in these two districts has played a key role in the stability of the Qingdao real estate market.
In the last two months of the year, a key point in the Qingdao real estate market is whether it can stabilize high-end residential properties.
Difficulties in reducing prices
Second, analyze from a product perspective.
In the first ten months, a total of 14,021 sets of non-commercial residential properties were sold in Qingdao. Because the apartment market is so deserted this year, developers generally lower the price of apartment products compared to commercial housing, and there are even many products at cost prices. .
According to incomplete estimates in the industry, the average selling price of Qingdao LOFT this year is about 8,500 yuan / ㎡, which is a significant drop compared to the price of previous years. At the same time, some apartment products with a total price of about 300,000 yuan have appeared on the market, with a down payment of about 100,000 yuan. Most of the intended clients are working-class investors.
However, in the last two months of 2020, it is more difficult to reduce the prices of products for apartments that are already in the cost line.
Overall, the second biggest highlight of the Qingdao real estate market at the end of this year is whether developers will break the cost line and continue to trade price for volume, or sell well in the next two months.
Benchmarking real estate prices becomes a highlight
Third, analyze the general trend.
According to Sharp statistics, Qingdao’s commercial real estate transactions were 14,234 in July, 12,427 in August, 13,270 in September, and 11,655 in October. Judging by this trend, gold nine silver ten transactions have not increased in volume and have decreased year after year, which can only be said to be barely happening. Most importantly, since the start of the traditional high season, the volume of transactions began to decline.
Jinjiuyinshi’s sales volume is not ideal. In the traditional off-season, developers can only hope that developers reduce prices and the amount of demand, and provide preferential sales under the premise of guaranteeing costs.
However, in the last two months, new records have constantly entered the market. According to incomplete statistics, Qingdao will have more than 40 year-end sprints in November. Among them, the main urban area has 11 launches, and the market will inevitably be deeply divided; Chengyang is expected to have 10 additional launches on the market. After the joint property rights policy is tightened, it will be difficult to expand sales; Jimo and West Coast are expected to have 9, respectively. In the market where the supply is much higher than the demand, it will be fierce competition; Jiaozhou and Pingdu are slightly inferior, and each of them has 1 additional market or promotion.
Compared with the old market, the price of the first opening of the new market is more flexible. If the developer’s strategy is to lower prices to promote promotion, then the old market will be more difficult and all sectors may start a price war.
For home buyers, buying is not buying less. Falling house prices can delay the entry of large numbers of home buyers to the market and enter a period of delay.
Therefore, in the last two months of the Qingdao market, the third biggest attraction may be the price at which the benchmark real estate market opens or increases.
