[ad_1]
With less than one day before Election Day in 2020, Wall Street companies are finalizing recommendations for clients on how to adjust their portfolios according to which party controls the White House and the Senate.
Although nothing is certain about the November 3 outcome, strategists said that the reelection of President Donald Trump would benefit growth stocks and the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden (Joe Biden). It can have a positive impact on cyclical value stocks.
CNBC reviewed recently released reports by dozens of the largest research companies to extract common information for investors hoping to find their way before the 2020 election. Here is the S&P 500 sector trend forecast for the 3 most likely election results.
Outcome 1: Blue Frenzy, Biden wins President, Democrats win Senate
(FiveThirtyEight prediction probability is 75%)
In such circumstances, the reactions of different sectors are likely to be as follows:
Utilities: Decline, Biden More Likely to Divide Big Tech Companies, Antitrust Probes;
Optional consumer goods: remain unchanged;
Energy: remains unchanged;
Finance: On the Rise, Biden Is More Wall Street-Friendly Among Democratic Candidates The Democratic Senate Also Hopes To Boost The Economy Through Economic Stimulus Policies;
Medical Health: Staying Unchanged If Biden has a medical reform policy, he appears to be a bigger threat to the health and medical industry;
Industrial: Rising, similar to banks, cyclical industrial stocks will rise;
Technology: On the rise, Biden’s international trade policy is more relaxed;
Material: On the rise, the blue frenzy will stimulate the cyclical financial sector and related demand;
Utilities: Major energy companies, on the rise, will benefit from new energy policies.
Outcome 2: maintain the status quo, Trump maintains the presidential position and the Republicans maintain the Senate
(FiveThirtyEight prediction probability 9%)
Utilities: on the rise, Trump is friendlier to tech / media / telecom companies (except chips);
Optional consumer goods: remain unchanged;
Energy: Increasingly, EPA regulations will be looser;
Finance: unchanged, regulatory risk is reduced, but Republican stimulus policy is less;
Medical and health: remain unchanged, ibid;
Industry: On the rise, Trump emphasized that he will continue with his tough policy against China and that he will increase the defense budget;
Tech: Down, Trump Bad for Semiconductor Industry;
Material: Decline, some fiscal stimulus policies will be effective, but the strength of the dollar will eventually be negative for the sector;
Utilities: On the rise, the House of Representatives wants to fight for a clean energy policy with even greater hurdles.
Outcome 3: Biden wins and Republicans continue to maintain a majority in the Senate
(FiveThirtyEight’s prediction probability is 13%)
Utilities: Rising antitrust investigations of large front-line technology stocks will be difficult to implement;
Discretionary consumer: Decrease, because the scale of the stimulus will be relatively small, it will be negative, but President Biden may lower rates as a positive;
Energy: down;
Finance: if it does not change, it is difficult to strengthen supervision, but it is difficult to boost this sector without large-scale stimulus policies;
Medicine and health: the growing benefits of the early end of the epidemic can dilute the disadvantages of reinforced supervision;
Industry: remain unchanged;
Tech: On the rise, a more peaceful business environment is always good for tech stocks;
Material: remain unchanged, the government will agree on some infrastructure construction policies, but there will be no impact on mining;
Utilities: on the rise.
Source: financial industry websiteReturn to Sohu to see more
Editor:
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article only represent the author himself. Sohu is an information publishing platform. Sohu only provides storage space services.
[ad_2]