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Original Title: Precious Metal Investment Midday: The Perfect Storm Is Coming! Election Results May Be Delayed or Even Controversial Gold priceIs it expected to break in 1940?
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Wednesday (November 3) is an extremely critical day for the world. Today’s presidential election comes to the day of the decisive battle, and the White House will be announced in the next four years. Prior to this, short-term Asian market spot gold rallied and fell back, and is now trading around 1890.silverReject is approaching the $ 24 mark.
(Daily spot gold chart provided by TradingView)
November 3 local time is the official voting day for the US General Election, lasting one day. Based on time zone differences, voting centers in all US states will be closed from 6:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time (Beijing time, 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m. pm 4) 2:00). Each state counts the votes as it votes. Under normal circumstances, results are usually available on Election Day. However, with the increase in mailed votes this year and Trump may not easily admit defeat, results may be delayed.
Investors are hesitant to believe the polls, and the majority of the polls did not predict Trump’s 2016 election.
Currently, Democratic candidate Biden leads Trump in national polls, but the two appear to be evenly matched in key states. Trump may still win the Electoral College vote, which determines the ultimate victory. 270 votes are required.
Analysts said the most likely outcome of stock market volatility in the near term is that there is no clear winner on Tuesday night.
Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, said: “The hedging actions we saw last week are quite extensive and I think it makes sense; After what happened four years ago, people will naturally hold any kind of prediction about the general election. Skeptical. The closer the elections are, the more likely it is that the results will be postponed or controversial. This is a perfect storm of falling risky assets. “
When Trump attended the Pennsylvania campaign, he said that if some states continue to accept mailed votes after the Nov. 3 vote recount, they will not rule out sending attorneys to challenge relevant decisions. Local election officials stated that they can still accept mailed ballots and count them within 3 days of the election.
At the same time, Biden, who was collecting votes in Pennsylvania, his campaign manager, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, defended herself, saying that it is normal for some states to take longer to count votes. She believes it is impossible for Trump to declare victory on Election Day night. Biden said that American voters must make important decisions.
Phillip Streble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said: “We expect volatility to increase in the next 72 hours. So people will take gold and silver as a safe haven trade.”
Streible said: “If the outcome is not clear, the price of gold will go back to $ 1,940 an ounce. But no matter which candidate wins, there are potential factors for continued stimulus. Central banks are expanding their balance sheets and interest rates will be in a longer period of time. Keep it low. “
American dollar
On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is currently consolidating at a high level after rising for four consecutive days, and is currently trading near the 94 mark. The MACD red kinetic energy column on the daily chart expanded gradually and the KDJ stochastic indicator reached the overbought level, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is stable, but the uptrend may slow down or even stop.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly and hit the 94.28 level at one point. Currently, it has dropped slightly from this position. Pay attention to the support of 93.90. The MACD’s green kinetic energy column initially appeared, and the KDJ stochastic indicator fell from the overbought level, indicating that the dollar’s bearish kinetic energy has emerged and that the short-term callback may decline.
gold
On the daily chart, gold began to consolidate its gains after rising for two consecutive days, and is currently trading at around $ 1890. The MACD green kinetic energy column on the daily chart is still weak, and the stochastic indicator KDJ has rebounded from the oversold level, indicating that gold’s bearish kinetic energy is not strong and is currently inclined to swing.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price of gold continued to climb after hitting a low of $ 1,858 and the uptrend stopped at $ 1,898. We are concerned if the 1900 mark can be broken. The MACD red kinetic energy column started to weaken and the KDJ stochastic indicator reached the overbought level, indicating that the short-term gold or callback is lower.
silver
On the daily chart, silver was back close to the $ 24 mark after two consecutive days of rally. Concerned about whether it can stabilize this level, it is currently trying to stabilize the US $ 24 mark. The MACD green kinetic energy column on the daily chart initially appeared, and the KDJ stochastic indicator tried to bounce from below the 50 level, indicating that silver’s bearish kinetic energy still exists, or more shocks.
On the 4-hour chart, silver prices started a V-shaped bounce after hitting a low of $ 22.58, while the current rally has stopped at $ 24.25 at the 200-period moving average. . The MACD’s red kinetic energy column started to weaken and the KDJ stochastic indicator reached the overbought level, indicating that silver’s bullish kinetic energy has slowed or is facing a consolidation.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The increase in the number of new crown boxes globally has also reduced market confidence. The number of new coronavirus cases in the United States continues to rise, while the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Europe on Sunday surpassed 10 million. ——The worsening of the epidemic has triggered a hedge, which is good for gold.
2. The US stock market crashed last Friday (October 30). The Dow Jones once fell nearly 500 points and the Nasdaq fell more than 3%. At the close, the Dow Jones industrial index closed down 157.50 points, or 0.59%, at 26,501.60 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 40.10 points, or 1.21%, at 3,270.04 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index closed 274.00 points or 2.45% lower. , Reported 10911.59 points. ——The fall in US equities provided a safe haven and sustained gold.
3. According to Reuters statistics, there were at least 91,248 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States on Thursday, the highest increase in a single day since the beginning of the epidemic. Since the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States has exceeded 8.94 million, ranking first in the world. – The worsening of the epidemic has triggered a hedge, which is good for gold.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The Democratic Leader of the US House of Representatives, Pelosi, wrote to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on Thursday, indicating that she is still awaiting Mnuchin’s response on some points of difference. The White House rebutted Pelosi saying she had no intention of compromising. In response to Pelosi’s letter on Thursday, Mnuchin stated that Pelosi played “political tricks” during the negotiations, following a negotiating policy that either accepts her entirely or does not speak at all. -The pre-election stimulus plan is bleak and bad for gold.
2. The US Department of Commerce released data on US GDP in the third quarter. In the third quarter, its annualized GDP growth rate reached 33.1%, setting the best record in history. —— Higher-than-expected US GDP increases risk-taking confidence and is bad for gold.
3. The World Gold Council today released a report on the trend of gold demand, showing that in the third quarter of this year, world gold demand fell to 892 tonnes, a year-on-year drop of 19%. This is the lowest quarterly total demand since the third quarter of 2009. -Declining demand for gold is bad for gold prices.
Revision: TIER
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