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Original title: 61 new cases of asymptomatic infection were found in Xinjiang and cases between states.
[Global Times-Global Times Reportero Fan Lingzhi, Bai Yunyi, Liu Caiyu y Zhao Juehui]According to the press conference on the prevention and control of the Kashgar epidemic held by the Press Office of the People’s Government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on the 31st, from 24:00 on October 30 to 18:00 As of October 31, Xinjiang recently reported 61 cases of asymptomatic infections, of which 46 were in Shufu County and 15 in Akto County, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture (Kezhou), which is adjacent to Shufu County. . Chinese epidemiologists told the Global Times reporter on the night of the 31st that the 61 newly infected people may not be detected because they are in the early stages of the first round of nucleic acid testing. Detection this time may be “clearing dead spots”. “The necessary steps. However, experts remind locals to be very vigilant and that prevention and control related to deadlocks and virus sources must be found through detailed epidemiological investigations.Why are there 61 new cases? Expert: Do not detect repeat tests in the early stages of infection.
According to the official report, due to the border between Akto County, Atushi City and Wuqia County in Kezhou Prefecture and Shufu County in Kashgar Prefecture, after the Shufu County outbreak, Kezhou completed nucleic acid testing for all employees on day 27, and the results were all Negative. On the 30th, Kezhou conducted the second round of free nucleic acid tests for key populations in key areas. From 24:00 on 30 to 18:00 on 31, 15 cases of asymptomatic infection were reported in the neighboring municipalities of Akto County and Shufu County. All personnel under medical observation. The two rounds of free nucleic acid testing for all employees at Kashgar were completed on the 27th and 31st, respectively. Except for the confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections that have been announced, the test results of the rest were negative. That is, including the 61 recently reported cases of asymptomatic infections, all new asymptomatic infections are from Zhanmin Township and surrounding municipalities in Shufu County, and all are quarantine medical observation personnel.
A Xinjiang medical expert told the Global Times on the 31st that these 61 asymptomatic patients tested negative in the first round of nucleic acid tests, and then the second round of nucleic acid tests were positive. There can be two situations: one is They may be in the early stages of the disease, and the nucleic acid test could not be detected. The expert’s judgment is also consistent with the situation reported in the autonomous region’s press conference. Gu Yingsu, deputy director of the Xinjiang Health Commission, said that the new coronavirus has gone from infection to detection. There is a certain time interval for detection. If the first nucleic acid sample occurs within this time interval, it may not be detected. According to the incubation period of the new coronavirus, the incubation period of new coronary pneumonia is 1 to 14 days, and the common incubation period is 3 to 7 days. This means that about 90% of people will have a positive nucleic acid test within 3 to 7 days of infection, and some people are less than 3 days old and some people are older than 7 days. The aforementioned experts believe that another possibility is the existence of “false negatives.”
That is why Kashgar and the surrounding areas have launched the second round of nucleic acid testing. Chen Xi, an associate professor at the Yale University School of Public Health, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 31st that the repeat nucleic acid tests being implemented in Xinjiang are necessary. If the extent of the infection is not great, repeat testing can avoid statistical errors due to “false negatives.” “After all, throat swabs are taken from the upper respiratory tract, and virus content is usually low in the early stages of infection.” According to Gu Yingsu’s presentation at the press conference, the second round of nucleic acid testing was carried out to identify and detect accurately and in the shortest time possible. Those that are still in the incubation period. This not only supports the application of the “early four requirements”, buys time for early treatment and recovery, but also helps prevent the spread of the epidemic and do everything possible to protect people’s lives and health. of all ethnic groups.
Chen Xi also mentioned that there may be a gap between medical transportation conditions in Xinjiang and the mainland. If samples are collected too early or too late, or if samples are not stored, transported and processed properly, they can face challenges.
New infections or “eliminating dead spots” are necessary steps, but you still need to be very vigilant
Given that the 15 new cases in Kare Kaiqike Township and Pilal Township of Akto County are adjacent to Shufu County, the aforementioned Xinjiang experts believe that it is not ruled out that the epidemic spread to these places at first. . Close contacts or close contacts of close contacts, but the specific transmission path is unclear. However, the expert said that Kezhou, like Shufu County, adopted home quarantine measures in the early stages of the epidemic. Although there are signs of early spread of the epidemic in the community, these potential cases have now been detected “as long as they are detected. The epidemic can be controlled.”
“The newly discovered infection may be a necessary step to ‘eliminate dead spots.’ Only through this step can we understand the infection status of the population as much as possible,” Chen Xi said.
Wang Guangfa, director of the Department of Respiratory and Intensive Care Medicine at Peking University First Hospital, told the Global Times on the 31st that if the right measures are taken and there are no obvious gaps in prevention and control, of new cases will decrease in approximately 7 days and the number of new cases will decrease in approximately 14 days. There is a significant decline. Therefore, he believes that if the epidemic situation in Xinjiang is fully controlled it requires a few more days of observation, and now we must maintain a high degree of vigilance.
Expert: Prevention and control of blind spots and determination of the origin of the virus should be sought through epidemiological investigations.
Wang Guangfa believes that according to public information, the new cases are still asymptomatic infections, which shows that local detection is very timely, but on the other hand, it may also indicate that the situation is not too optimistic. The symptoms are mild, but they are still contagious. “If asymptomatic infections keep appearing, it means there may be some blind spots in prevention and control.” These blind spots require detailed epidemiological investigations to find them. Due to language and other factors, it can be difficult to drive circulation in ethnic areas, but this is work that needs to be strengthened. “
“The prevention and control of infectious diseases consists of three main elements: controlling the source of infection, cutting the route of transmission, and protecting susceptible people. The most important of these is controlling the source of infection. If unknown the source of infection, prevention and control will be very difficult. ” Wang Guangfa said that if the source cannot be found, it will be difficult to “block” the virus in the first place, and the virus may continue to emerge from this channel, and it will be difficult for people who were in contact with the source to be discovered in time. and they can change. In a new source of infection. For example, the source of the epidemic in Shufu County has not been clarified, so the epidemic in Aktao County, which is nearby, was transmitted from Shufu County. Or is it the source of Shufu County? It is still impossible to say: “The place where the epidemic occurred afterward may not necessarily be the ‘downline’ that was transmitted. It may also be the source, or it may be two branches spread from the same source.”
Chen Xi also expressed the same opinion. He believes that in addition to testing, the job of tracing close contacts is very important right now, because this can stifle community transmission in the bud, so that a larger-scale shutdown doesn’t have to be carried out in the future.
Wang Guangfa ultimately suggested that Xinjiang should quickly assess and track the cold chain food flow and key personnel associated with the outbreak concentrated in Shufu County. The most important thing now is to be fast. “
