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With the rapid rise in the number of new crown infections in the United States, Trump’s campaign strategy is at risk, because many voters who support the Republican Party may drop out. The latest support rate for the 2020 U.S. general election is still your advantage. The rebound of the US epidemic has rapidly increased the uncertainty of the US elections, which has also increased the volatility of gold. On Monday and Tuesday, gold was up more than US $ 20. On Wednesday, gold in the US market plunged nearly US $ 40. On Thursday, gold fell back more than $ 25 and the market was turbulent. On Friday (October 30) in the Asian market in early trading, spot gold began to recover slightly after Thursday’s sharp decline. At the time of publication at 10:24 a.m. Beijing time, the price of gold once rebounded to $ 1,875 and was up nearly $ 7 on the day, a 0.4% increase.
America’s pandemic is out of control and Trump is on the defensive
Trump needs large numbers of voters to vote at the site on Election Day to hope to reverse his decline in the polls and offset the Democratic Party’s lead in sending votes. Even if Republicans insist that Trump supporters are eager to vote on the spot, the spike in the number of new crown infections and hospitalizations in key states on the battlefield may prevent some Republicans from voting.
Rising infections have also put Trump on the defensive, making his response to the epidemic a focus of attention as the campaign draws to a close. The response to the epidemic has played an important role in the campaign of Democratic candidate Biden. Trump has downplayed the severity of the epidemic in the past eight months, insisting that the virus will disappear.
Polls published by the Washington Post and ABC News on Wednesday showed that the increase in the number of new corona cases in some parts of the United States may affect Trump’s chances of victory. In Wisconsin, where the number of new cases recently hit a new record, potential voter approval rates for Biden and Trump were 57% and 40%, respectively, with Biden leading the way by 17 percentage points. In Michigan, Biden continued to hold a small lead, with potential voters supporting Biden and Trump at 51% and 44%, respectively.
Credit Suisse strategist Kasper Bartholdy and others said that if the Democratic Party wins the US general election next week, it may “trigger a positive risk market response because investors will associate it with government spending to large scale in the United States in the coming years. “
The Biden presidency is likely to ease international tensions and “transform US trade policy into a less conflictual and more predictable model.” In addition, the increase in fiscal spending will benefit Mexico and other countries that export to the United States.
Institutional insight: Gold volatility intensifies as US elections approach
The financial market suffered a violent liquidation the previous day: spot gold fell more than 40 dollars, while the Dow Jones fell more than 900 points. Analysts said concerns about the US elections and the coronavirus are pushing the dollar higher and dragging both gold and the stock market.
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, said: “We have seen an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases, a drop in the stock market and a rise in the US dollar. The market expects a stimulus agreement, but no stimulus measures have been introduced between now and the general elections. “
Analysts told Kitco News that as the US election approaches, the most likely scenario is increased volatility.
“Without a doubt, this is an example of electoral tension. News of a greater blockade in Europe is also one of the reasons for the increase in the dollar and, in turn, gold has also been sold,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist TD Securities premiums.
Another main reason for the liquidation of the stock market on Wednesday was the fear of incorrect election results.
“In recent weeks, the market has digested the blue wave. This means that the Democrats will win both the presidential throne and the majority of the Senate. Especially for investors in gold, the risk is that the election results will be controversial. Global market can also be the same. “It’s the last days before the elections,” Ghali said. “People are worried that there is a situation like 2016 and that the chances of winning in the general market will soon diminish.”
If the election results are close enough, the United States may face a controversial election and the market has not fully reflected this situation. He said: “There is definitely a risk of error on Election Day, which leads to low beliefs. Therefore, we are seeing more volatility in gold.”
[Datos financieros y eventos en los que centrarse hoy]Friday, October 30, 2020
① 07:30 Japan’s unemployment rate in September
② 14:30 Initial value of French GDP in the third quarter
③ 3:00 PM UK October Monthly rate of the national house price index
④ 15:30 The actual annual rate of retail sales in Switzerland in September
⑤ 3:45 PM French CPI monthly rate for October
⑥ 4:00 p.m. KOF Economic Leadership Index for October Switzerland
⑦ 17:00 Initial rate of German GDP in the third quarter without seasonal adjustment
⑧ 18:00 Annual rate and monthly rate of the October CPI of the euro zone
⑨ 18:00 The initial value of the annual rate of GDP in the third quarter of the euro area
⑩ 18:00 Unemployment rate in the euro zone in September
⑪ 20:30 Annual rate and monthly rate of the September US Basic PCE Price Index.
⑫ 8:30 PM US Monthly Personal Spending Rate in September
⑬ 20:30 Canada Monthly GDP rate for August
⑭ 9:45 PM Chicago PMI for October, USA
⑮ 10:00 PM USA October Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
⑯ The total number of oil rigs in the United States as of 01:00 the next day and the week of October 30
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