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Source: FX168
Original title: Gold bulls is hit! Trump admits there is no hope of reaching a stimulus agreement before the election Gold priceWhy can you still hold on to 1900? These two factors may be the key
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) reported on Wednesday (Oct 28) in Asian markets, the US dollar index rebounded and is now at around 93.10; spot gold is under moderate pressure and is currently trading at around $ 1906 per ounce. US President Trump admitted that the fiscal stimulus package may not be reached before the November 3 general election. The delay in the stimulus plan has become the main downward pressure facing gold prices. However, the price of gold is still above $ 1,900 an ounce. Analysts noted that the epidemic in Europe and the United States remains serious and the outcome of the US elections is uncertain. The safe haven buying triggered by these two factors has supported the price of gold, thus limiting the fall in the price of gold. .
Spot gold closed higher on Tuesday as data showed consumer confidence in the job market and the US economy has declined, increasing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge. Spot gold closed at $ 1907.24 / ounce, up $ 5.64 or 0.30%, the intraday high of $ 1911.00 / ounce.
The well-known financial website Economies.com wrote an article in which the price of gold rose again on Tuesday and once tested the key resistance at $ 1,910.00 an ounce. However, the price of gold failed to effectively break through this resistance. As long as the price of gold remains below $ 1910.00 per ounce, the bearish view will remain valid for some time. The price of gold must again fall below $ 1,901.80 per ounce and stay below this level to confirm that the price of gold will fall towards its main bearish target of $ 1,690.90 per ounce.
As the number of people infected with the new corona virus continues to rise around the world, concerns about new restrictions in Europe and other regions have led to gold being supported by safe haven demand.
The global epidemic continues to unfold, with the number of recently confirmed cases exceeding 450,000 in a single day. There are more than 10,000 new confirmed cases in a single day in many European countries The WHO said that the European region is the “epicenter” of the current global epidemic. The epidemic situation in the United States continues to deteriorate, and the number of hospitalizations in many places has peaked since the epidemic.
Worldometers real-time global statistics show that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide exceeded 44.23 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 1.171 million. The cumulative number of confirmed new coronary pneumonia cases in the United States exceeded 9.03 million and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 232,000. According to the Institute for Health Statistics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the increase in the number of cases in the fall and winter in the United States will intensify in November and December, reaching a peak in January 2021.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the current increase in confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia is not a manifestation of the second wave of epidemics, but because the first wave of epidemics continues and worsens. Fauci said: “We have not seen the epidemic data fall below a good baseline. The data has been increasing and fluctuating, so far we have reached an unprecedented record, which is actually very dangerous.”
In addition, the uncertainty of the US elections has increased, making gold as a safe haven more attractive to investors. Polls show Democrat Biden has a leading approval rating, but in undecided states that can determine election results, the competition will be more intense.
According to data from the poll aggregation website RealClearPolitics, Biden still leads national polls by 7.9 percentage points, but Trump’s momentum in Georgia and Michigan, two battlefield states, is gaining momentum.
StoneX’s head of market analysis for Europe, Middle East and Asia, Rhona O’Connell, wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter: “Overall, gold is still in a tight range. The virus, the stiff negotiations in Washington and the road to election campaigns are very large. To some extent, I will continue to keep players neutral. “
David Govett, founder of Govett Precious Metals, said that ahead of the election, investors in the gold market will continue to make a profit. “The market as a whole is still very strong, especially from an ETF perspective. Investors will want to make some gains, especially It is in the recent turbulent state. However, I am still bullish on gold and hope that investors find opportunities to buy on dips after their gains are sold. “
Wood County Republican Party Chief Executive Jonathan Jakubowski and Arizona State University Carey School of Business Professor Christos A. Makridis wrote in the Capitol Hill newspaper on Tuesday that they predict that the current United States President United, Trump, will win the 2020 presidential election and win the election.
According to the latest data released by the US Elections Project on Tuesday, more than 66.9 million Americans have already voted one week before Election Day.
In the competition between current President Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Biden, a record number of voters have voted. The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented demand for mail-in and early voting in person.
According to statistics from the Associated Press, the number of early voting in 2020 surpassed 58 million in 2016, representing 48.6% of the 136 million votes in the 2016 presidential election.
It is expected that if the US elections give the Democratic Party a complete victory, the United States could further increase its fiscal deficit, which is seen as a potential long-term boost for gold.
Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at Kitco.com, said: “Before the US elections, a week later, the precious metals market is paralyzed. Many markets may suspend their operations until the results of the elections. Many traders will want to stay away from the market. or reduce some risks. Because the outcome of the presidential elections is still very uncertain. “
US. Michael Matousek, chief trader at Global Investors, said: “People are worried about the new corona virus. The global economy is slowing down, so they are trying to stimulate the economy, which is generally good for gold. However, the price of gold is in a narrow range and may not be too much before the election. ” Volatility.”
Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, said in a report that “if there is a ‘blue wave’ on Election Day, it implies that the government will take large-scale stimulus measures for the relief of the new corona virus and infrastructure spending, and the outlook for gold prices will remain optimistic. “
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist for Chicago Blue Line Futures, said: “Gold has been trapped between $ 1930 and $ 1880. The market is waiting for clues from the general election.”
For more information on the US General Election, Follow-Up Debates, and Voting, please log in to[FX168 Temas de las elecciones generales de EE. UU.]To see
Trump admits there is no hope of reaching a stimulus deal before the election
On Tuesday local time, US President Trump admitted Tuesday that the new crown bailout deal may not be reached before the November 3 general election because the White House cannot bridge the gap. with Senate Republicans and Congressional Democrats.
Trump said: “After the election, we will have the best stimulus package ever.”
Trump also condemned the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi, for wanting to delay the stimulus plan after the election. Trump said Americans should get a stimulus plan, but House Speaker Pelosi rejected the crown’s new bailout plan.
Trump said: “We have always been willing to negotiate because we want to help people, but Pelosi only wants to rescue those Democratic cities and states that are mismanaged and unbridled in crime.”
The White House and Democrats have reached a dead end in negotiations over a new stimulus package valued at about $ 2 trillion. Trump and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi, blame each other.
Pelosi responded to Trump’s accusations in a letter to Democrats in the House of Representatives. He said that the White House chief of staff, Meadows, has stated that the United States government “will not control the epidemic,” “until Sunday, the White House and (Senate Majority Leader) McConnell still refused. (the rescue agreement), Meadows explained the reason behind this. “
Pelosi said: “The president’s words are meaningless unless he can get McConnell to take his hand off the pause button.”
Pelosi’s spokeswoman said Monday that she still had hopes of reaching a bailout deal before the election, but White House spokesperson McNerney said in an interview with Fox Business Channel that the White House’s hopes of reaching to an agreement with the Democratic Party were “few.”
YO G. The group’s senior currency strategist Christopher Vecchio said that, at present, he is unlikely to announce a new stimulus plan before November 3. This will allow the market to maintain range volatility in the short term.
US White House spokeswoman Farah said Tuesday that the White House hopes to reach an agreement with Democrats on the Coronavirus Relief Act and be able to vote in “a few weeks,” but said such an agreement will not be possible. until after Election Day.
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