The fragile panorama of the US economy under the severe situation of the epidemic

Original title: Notes from the reporter | A fragile panorama of the US economy under the severe situation of the epidemic

When the new corona epidemic began to spread rapidly in the United States in March and caused a large number ofunemploymentAt that time, the United States Congress, which is responsible for evaluating the economic situation and policies of the United States,CommitteeWell known to dozens of AmericanseconomistSeek policy advice from public health experts. Without exception, they believe that the top priority in curing the American economy is to control the spread of the epidemic.

However, the United States government has not adopted such a recommendation and has been reluctant to implement strict social distancing measures.goldThe time window has led to a continuous rapid increase in confirmed cases of new crowns. The rapid restart of the economy and the inadequate implementation of prevention and control measures have also led to a gradual rebound in the epidemic in some parts of the United States.

According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on the 23rd, the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States in a single day exceeded 80,000 for the first time. According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the night of the 25th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new corona in the United States has exceeded 8.63 million and the number of deaths has exceeded 220,000.

This fully exposed the drawbacks of the strategy adopted by the United States government to meet the dual challenges of the epidemic and the economy. Since March, the United States has introduced an unprecedented scale.financialRescue andcoinRelaxed measures to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the economy; but used in public health, such as virus detection and close contact tracking.ServiceAllocations to prevent the spread of the epidemic are far from insufficient. Local governments are financially tight. The Republican and Democratic parties in Congress have been unable to agree on a new round of financial aid. Six months later, the epidemic is still raging and the economy has been unable to escape.

US President Trump has frequently been accused of ignoring epidemic prevention and control and of hastily restarting the economy out of “selfishness” in order to expect the US economy to appear “stronger” in the months leading up to the November presidential elections. The move was also accused of taking the life and economy of the United States as a gamble. The result was more confirmed cases and deaths from new crowns.short termIt looks like a better economy, but the US economy will suffer more losses in the long run.

Economists believe that the short-term rebound in the US economy is driven more temporarily by the lifting of the lockdown by the government and the introduction of stimulus policies. The rally is quite fragile and does not mean that the fundamentals of the US economy were fundamental.to get better。

In fact, when the epidemic recovered and some government stimulus policies expired,companyRuinedAnd permanent unemployment has risen and the momentum of the American economy is weakening.InlandPresident Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the outlook for the United States economy still largely depends on the trend of the epidemic and the political measures taken by the United States government. The United States economy is unlikely to fully recover until people are convinced that it is safe to engage in a wide range of activities again.

Economics from University of ChicagoTeacherOsten Gulsby also said that overwhelming evidence from the United States and other countries around the world shows that preventing the spread of the epidemic is a prerequisite for sustained economic recovery, and the local economy where the epidemic is well controlled will also suffer small economic losses. . He noted that the rescue plan is very important to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, but nothing is more important than stopping the spread of the epidemic.

Regarding the outlook for the US economy, most economists predict that the US economy andjobIt will take at least two to three years to return to pre-epidemic levels. Taking employment as an example, data from the US Department of Labor shows that in Septemberunemployment rateIt fell to 7.9%, even higher than the 3.5% level in February. Among them, low-income groups, women, African Americans and Latin Americans are particularly problematic.

Philadelphia Federal ReserveBankPresident Patrick Harker noted that the new crown epidemic has further aggravated US revenues.wealthAnd racial inequality, Chicago Federal ReserveBankPresident Charles Evans warned that the longer economic distress lasts, the greater the lasting harm to women, minorities, youth, and the low-skilled due to these vulnerabilities.groupAvailable in an emergencySavingsLess,Bankruptcy riskLarger.

There are increasing signs that the US economy is showing a polarization between rich and poor.InlandAccording to data published by the Reserve Bank in September, driven by factors such as the rise in the stock market, the net wealth of US households in the second quarter of this yearChain relationshipAn increase of almost 7%, but these gains go mainly to the wealthiest households, while the incomes of many people have been reduced or even unemployed. This shows that while some American families have recovered from the epidemic and even experienced wealth growth, some families are still struggling or even getting worse. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen, highlighting the fragility and inequality of the American economic landscape.

(Source: Xinhua News Agency)

(Responsible editor: DF532)