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Influenza Vaccination Demand Is High And Stock Performance Of Related Concepts May Worry For Two Nodes Of Time
Source: The Voice of Securities Daily
Daily Values
“It took a whole week to make an appointment for the flu shot and almost a month to get the shot.” Liu, who came to get a flu shot at Beijing’s Xicheng Tianqiao Community Health Center, told a Securities Daily reporter that he had also used it before. I made an appointment for the flu shot, but making an appointment has never been more difficult than this year. The health center staff also reported that compared to previous years, the number of people getting vaccinated against influenza has increased significantly this year and the medical staff is working at full capacity every day.
Although there is no “hard to get vaccinated” situation, warm flu shots from previous years have raised people’s awareness of active protection due to the epidemic, which has greatly increased the flu vaccination rate this year. . However, under fierce demand, stocks of the flu vaccine concept have entered a period of tightening and the stock prices of some companies have fallen more than 30% in the last month.
Limited influenza vaccine production capacity
Tao Lina, former chief physician of the Immunization Planning Department at the Shanghai Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and a vaccine expert, said in an interview with a Securities Daily reporter that influenza vaccine, as a vaccine for second class, you need to vaccinate yourself. Therefore, the national vaccination rate is low, about 2%, there is a huge gap between the vaccination rate in the developed countries of Europe and the United States, which is around 50%. national vaccination, but supply is restricted by the market.
The shelf life of the influenza vaccine is only one year and will be prepared according to the type of influenza for that year. The preparation cycle is approximately 5 months, of which it takes approximately 4 months to produce the vaccine, and the China Inspection Institute takes approximately 1 month for the batch to be issued. At the beginning of each year, influenza vaccine manufacturers will make preparations based on their market share and will begin organizing production orders around May.
Although domestic demand for influenza vaccination is strong, companies that produce vaccines did not substantially increase new production capacity, but simply increased production.Hualan BioHe said the company is working overtime to produce flu vaccines to address current shortages in various regions; Kexing Biological has extended the vaccine production plan for three months to meet the supply of influenza vaccines, and some vaccine companies such asZhifei, Cheng Da Biological, etc. they are conducting clinical research on the flu vaccine.
China fortuneWang Ruiyan, a medical researcher at the Academy, told a Securities Daily reporter that the long flu vaccine listing process and the short shelf life of the vaccine have restricted the overall production capacity of the flu vaccine. up to a point, and it is impossible to increase a large amount of supply in a short time.
Wang Ruiyan said: “The annual batch of influenza vaccines has a relatively fixed share. Therefore, companies that produce influenza vaccines cannot start production on time even if they increase production capacity. They can only use the existing production capacity to improve supply efficiency and ensure demand before the flu season. Because it takes 2 to 4 weeks to produce antibodies after being vaccinated with the flu vaccine, this is a period of high demand for the vaccine before the end of the year “.
Waiting time for adjustment in vaccine sector base
On the one hand, national influenza vaccine production companies have fixed production capacity and lack room for performance growth. On the other hand, overvaluation and external event factors have brought certain negative effects on the stocks of influenza vaccines.
Zhang Cuixia, chief investment consultant at Jufeng Investment, said in an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter that the adverse events of influenza vaccination occurred abroad. Although the incidence of adverse reactions after vaccination is less than one in 100,000, it affects the country. Market sentiment, especially in the case of high valuations of vaccine companies, ultimately led to the drop in share prices of related companies.
Zhang Cuixia said: “Currently, domestic vaccine concept companies’ stock prices are generally high, especially influenza vaccine concept stocks, which have seen several rounds of rise below previous market expectations. Recently, these companies with substantial premiums have begun to enter a period of adjustment. Within a month, it had fallen by more than 30%. However, due to strong demand for flu vaccines, which still support companies producers, cannot be considered the end of the rising market. “
For future vaccine concept stock investment opportunities, Zhang Cuixia believes that there is still value to pay attention to in the short and medium term, especially to understand the two time points, one is the income announcement of the three-quarter report and the another is the industry-wide driving effect of the new corona pneumonia vaccine.
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