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Original title: Increase in confirmed cases, redifferentiation of anti-epidemic routes in the US and Europe
Source: Beijing Commercial Daily
On the one hand, epidemic prevention measures quickly hardened and the national emergency resumed, on the other hand, it was clear that “we are not going to control the new epidemic crown.” When the second wave of epidemics has been inescapable, the anti-epidemic route of the United States and Europe has reappeared. Only this time, the reverse is true, from original Britain to today’s America. The logic can also make sense: As the general election approaches, it is better to downplay the impact of the virus rather than promise that the epidemic is controllable. It is difficult to say whether the economy will survive the second wave.
Differentiation between the United States and Europe
Six months ago, the global epidemic was on the rise. Faced with the stock market crash and the growing number of confirmed cases, the United States quickly entered a state of emergency. Both fiscal and monetary policies made efforts to protect the American economy. At the time, it was the UK that was “going against the sky.” Due to the “herd immunity” strategy, Britain was once the target of public criticism. Now, just half a year, the situation has been reversed.
“We will not control the epidemic.” On the 25th local time, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows directly determined the United States’ path to combat the epidemic in an interview with CNN. According to Meadows, people will receive vaccinations, find effective treatments, and other referrals. When the journalist asked why the United States was not controlling the epidemic, Meadows replied: “Because the new corona is just a contagious virus like the flu.”
The attitude of the White House is in an uproar, especially when the American epidemic is in the second wave of escalation. CNN reported on the 25th that in the previous two days, there were more than 83,000 new cases in a single day in the United States, making them the two worst days since the outbreak. Data shows that on days 23 and 24, the number of new cases confirmed in the United States in a single day was 83,757 and 83,718 respectively, setting a record for the number of new cases in a single day since the outbreak in the United States. United. Currently, the number of confirmed cases in the United States still ranks first in the world.
This time, however, Europe has learned its lesson. Faced with the rebound in the epidemic, many European countries have adopted restrictive measures. On the 25th, local time, the President of the Spanish Government, Sánchez, announced that the country has once again entered a state of national emergency, in addition, the government will implement a curfew throughout the country for the next 15 days. The last time Spain entered a state of emergency was on March 15 of this year, and on the 9th of this month, the Spanish government issued a statement declaring that Madrid capital and the Community of Madrid entered a state of emergency for 15 days.
On the same day, Italian Prime Minister Conte also declared that the Italian government will adopt a series of new measures to further strengthen the prevention and control of the new corona epidemic. Even from 0:00 on October 26 to November 24, Italy will ban bars, cafes, restaurants, ice cream parlors, etc. keep running after 18:00 every day; 75% of high school students will receive classes online; movie theaters will be closed. Concert hall, gym, swimming pool, etc.
Change strategy
The worst affected area in Europe’s first wave of epidemics has “slipped” back into the second wave of epidemics, but the momentum for a new round of epidemics may be stronger than before. Even Germany, one of the best students in the early stage of fighting the epidemic in Europe, is not confident enough. German Chancellor Merkel said bluntly on the 24th that Germany’s new corona epidemic is in a “very severe” stage and that the rate of spread has exceeded that of earlier this year. At the time, Merkel also emphasized once again, “Unless absolutely necessary, please do not travel or participate in celebrations. Please stay home.”
Regarding the rebound of the European epidemic, Sun Chenghao, assistant researcher at the Institute of Modern Research of the National Institute of China in the US, analyzed that the main reason is to resume production, work and school. Also, the virus is prone to relapse in fall and winter. When the virus is not completely eliminated, the socioeconomic factor If activated, the epidemic will easily recover. Furthermore, Europe’s control, testing, detection and isolation systems are not very strict, and Europeans’ awareness of prevention and control is not that strong. All of these are important factors leading to the rebound of the epidemic.
When the epidemics picked up in the United States and Europe, the difference in attitudes became more obvious. This time around Europe finally looks like a “normal person”, but the American painting style is becoming increasingly exotic. At the Florida rally in the middle of this month, Trump also said he does not support stricter local government prevention and control measures. Perhaps to verify this statement, Trump made a move to throw masks at the crowd at the rally. It’s worth noting that this rally is also Trump’s first campaign rally after he was diagnosed with pneumonia of the crown.
Additionally, the White House also revised the so-called “herd immunity” strategy at the time, with the intention of speeding up the resumption of work and production. It seems absurd, but if you want to study it carefully, it also seems reasonable. In Sun Chenghao’s view, the US government has changed a strategy to minimize the threat of the virus. For example, it emphasizes that the virus is relatively contagious, but not terrible. It is similar to the flu, that is, it does not promote your ability to prevent the spread of the virus. If the virus isn’t terrible, you don’t need to worry.
Sun Chenghao explained that from Trump’s diagnosis to the successive infections of 30 or 40 senior White House officials, it is enough to show that the White House itself has lost control of the prevention and control of the epidemic. he is very clear that the prevention of the White House epidemic is very problematic. In addition, it is very close to the last voting day of the general elections on November 3. Obviously, it is unrealistic for the government to say that it can prevent the spread of the virus, which is why this change in strategy has occurred. On the one hand, this type of expression lies in the fact that its own prevention and control is really not good, on the other hand, it is also that the vaccine cannot be released before voting day.
Resurrecting “buried mine”
The United States has American considerations. After all, the general elections are overwhelming and the discussions about the politicization of the epidemic have long been raging. But the reality is that the second wave of the epidemic rebound has already set in, and current policy may be difficult to pay for future economic conditions. Not long ago, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the rebound in the American epidemic has increased the uncertainty of the outlook and may make companies reluctant to hire or carry out investment activities ” The persistence of the infection and the second wave The risk of the epidemic will not only affect psychologically companies and consumers, but will also interrupt economic activities. “
Recently, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, also mentioned that even after the new corona pneumonia epidemic has passed, economic growth in the United States may be “seriously” restricted. This is because the United States wants to survive the epidemic. Stimulating economic growth at the expense of expanding the budget deficit and printing a lot of money.
Of course, as the epidemic recovers, Europe will also face the same dilemma. According to the British Financial Times, the increase in the number of new cases of coronary pneumonia and new restrictions on the movement of people by various governments may stifle the recent recovery in Europe. Not long ago, the president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde, also mentioned that since the rebound in cases this summer, the European economic recovery has been uneven and uncertain, and currently faces the risk of losing momentum. “It is estimated that the GDP of the Eurozone will fall on average by 8% in 2020. Unemployment is the most serious problem. The governments of the Eurozone must pay special attention to this,” Lagarde warned.
Prospects for economic recovery are unpredictable. According to Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, in the future, as European governments are forced to reinforce restrictive policies, European economic activities will tend to collapse. At the same time, the unemployment rate in Europe is gradually increasing compared to the previous period, and the financial stability of the euro zone is also worrying. Lagarde said that due to rising debt levels, risks to financial stability in the euro zone are increasing. With the deterioration of corporate solvency, the European financial system will usher in a continuous increase in non-performing loans. Finally, in the first stage of the anti-epidemic period, EU member states were allowed to break the fiscal deficit limit and introduced large-scale deficit fiscal policies one after another, which also “deeply embedded” the future recovery.
More importantly, the new round of the epidemic is likely to trigger more other waves. Ding Chun mentioned that people underestimated the second wave of the epidemic and were more resistant to restrictive measures. On a practical level, measures such as pay cuts, unemployment, work stoppages and foot restrictions have led to a decline in people’s income and a difficult life, which is eroding the attitudes of Europeans. Government confidence, as the “wartime government” confidence dividend that brought on the epidemic gradually recedes, the economic and social problems caused by the epidemic will also pose a severe test for the economic recovery and the social stability of Europe. Similarly, Sun Chenghao also mentioned that many people are actually very resistant to strict social control. They also hope that the economy will recover, their jobs will be reopened and they are not willing to lock them again.
This concern is not redundant. On the night of the 24th local time, large-scale violent demonstrations broke out in central Rome, Italy, to protest the new crown blockade measures. In London in the middle of this month, several hours after the second-level lockdown restrictions were released, thousands of people gathered in central London to protest the lockdown. The protesters believe that strict epidemic prevention measures are unnecessary and violate human rights.
Beijing Business Daily Reporter Yang Yuehan
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