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It’s hard to find a pin, which is comparable to buying tickets for the Spring Festival. Reseller Party Has Also Joined! Flu Vaccine Appointments Are Full, The Chief Hunter Is The Vaccine Leader
Original Wang Linpeng
After entering fall and winter, flu vaccines in various places have shown varying degrees of shortage.
Shortly after the market opened in the morning, the main funds flowed substantiallyChangchun High Tech, Which caused the company’s share price to rise completely, 5.01% at closing, the main net inflow of funds reached 342 million yuan, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ranked all three first places. The turnover rate was 2.36%. Compared to the 1% turnover rate in previous days, the current market activity has increased significantly.
Last Friday, under the market style change, White Horse’s shares fell sharply, while Changchun Hi-tech fell as much as 8.84% on Friday, also causing a sharp decline in the vaccine sector. It is worth noting that after hitting an all-time high in early August, the biological vaccine index has undergone a sharp correction, with a correction rate of up to 18%, and the correction rate of the leading stock Changchun Hii- tech is more than 30%.
In addition to Changchun High-tech, the current bio-vaccine sector ushered in a rebound, and various funding sources are rushing to raise funds.Tibet pharmaceutical、Kangtai Bio、Zhongyuan StockAnd so on it ushered in a strong recovery.
Complete appointments for flu vaccination
Fall and winter are the seasons of high incidence of influenza. Along with the impact of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, people are more concerned about preventing influenza than in previous years. The appointment queue is full and the flu vaccine shortage has caused social concern. There are voices in the market that the rally in the biovaccine sector today is not just an oversold rally, it is also supported by high demand for vaccines.
In response to epidemic prevention and control needs and calls from experts and academics, the demand for influenza vaccination by people has increased dramatically, and influenza vaccines in various regions show varying degrees of shortage. Earlier, Professor Zhang Wenhong of Shanghai Huashan Hospital and many other experts advocated for active vaccination against influenza before the epidemic season.
Due to the special circumstances of this year’s epidemic and professional advice from previous scholars, the number of people needing to be vaccinated has skyrocketed in a short period of time, far exceeding the level of previous years. This year’s flu vaccine appointments are comparable to the “vaccine difficulties” on the Spring Festival travel ticket. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is rapidly widening. It is difficult to make an appointment for influenza in various cities like Beijing, one of the reasons is that many people who have not been vaccinated in previous years have joined the ranks of urgent appointments, which makes the vaccine shortage even more obvious.
The fact that a single injection is difficult to find has even resulted in a gray industrial chain. Earlier, the media reported that resellers helped organize the number and price of a quadrivalent flu vaccine for adults was as high as 398 yuan.
Vaccine supply and demand gap can exist for a long time
Data shows that vaccine production capacity has increased year over year, but the gap is widening enormously. According to media data, in 2019, more than 30.78 million flu vaccines were approved and issued nationwide, and this number increased to 33.97 million this year (in September), an increase of approximately 10% year-on-year. Vice President of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration Zhang Hui predicts that the batch of influenza vaccines will reach 50 million doses in 2020, almost doubling the number.
According to the State Food and Drug Administration website and vaccine batch release information, there will be 9 manufacturers supplying flu vaccines in the 2020-2021 season, includingHualan Bio, Sanofi Pasteur, Changchun Institute, Shanghai Institute, Kexing Biological, Dalian Yalifeng, Changchun Beike, Jiangsu Jindike, Wuhan Institute.
Among the flu vaccines released this year, the “big four” from Hualan Biotechnology, Sanofi Pasteur, Kexing Biotechnology and Changchun Institute accounted for 85% of the share. Among the 33.97 million flu vaccines approved as of September, Hualan Biologics has approximately 10.43 million, representing 31%; Sanofi Pasteur has approximately 8.92 million, which represents approximately 26%; Kexing Biotech has approximately 10.43 million flu vaccines, which is 31%. 4.88 million clubs, representing 14%; Changchun has about 4.53 million sticks, accounting for about 13%. In addition, Changchun Hi-tech’s live attenuated nasal spray flu vaccine issued a total of approximately 1.567 million in August and September. It is aimed primarily at people ages 3 to 17 to prevent influenza. At the same time, it uses three types of immune response methods: mucous immunity, cellular immunity and humoral immunity. Produces protection and is best suited for emergency immunization during the influenza pandemic season. Nasal spray influenza vaccine is expected to have wide market space.
The vaccine industry is a very demanding field. The time span from production to market is too long. From the perspective of time, it is difficult to expand production to face current problems. The flu season has likely passed after the market. According to industry experts, vaccine production involves the steps of obtaining virus strains, culturing, inactivating, lysing, and purifying. Generally speaking, it takes 4-5 months and then needs to be sent for inspection after batch issuance by China Food and Drug Control Institute. And then enter the local disease control procurement link after being approved for inclusion.
An industry expert prejudged: “Influenza vaccine shortages are a common phenomenon across the country. Basically, this year’s total production capacity will not expand much. With improved public awareness, the likelihood of flu vaccines in the next few years will continue to be out of stock. “
High demand increases the performance of listed companies
With the new epidemic crown, vaccination in the first trimester was severely affected and the inoculation of some vaccines was delayed. With the gradual control of the epidemic, the number of vaccine reimplants increased, which had little impact on annual performance.Tianfeng ValuesThe focus is believed to be on the vaccine route, and with the vaccination rate expected to continue to rebound, the industry will usher in a good opportunity for development in the post-epidemic era.
In relative terms, the pharmaceutical and biological industry has great resilience and a great capacity to resist risks. In the post-epidemic cycle, vaccines belong to a more specific sector. From the recent popular vaccination against influenza, it can be seen that the annual yield of vaccine stocks has increased. Guaranteed, there is a high probability of exceeding the market average.
In the biological vaccines sector, 24 publicly traded companies have disclosed their performance or performance forecasts for the first three quarters. Among the listed companies that officially released the third quarter reports,Kanghua Bio、Watson Bio, Changchun Hi-tech performance growth rate is high,Lisheng Pharmaceutical、Renfu MedicineAnd so on in the year-on-year decline.
Kanghua Biology published its first three quarterly reports for 2020, showing that the company’s operating income in the first three quarters of this year was 825 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180.37%, and its parent net profit was 344 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 288.47%. Among them, revenue in the third quarter was 370 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,479.69% and 4,256.49% respectively.
From the perspective of large capital inflows, Changchun Hi-tech is even more favored by the market, leading the sector with a significant net inflow of 342 million yuan, and Tibet Pharmaceuticals, which ranks second, is only 83 million yuan. Changchun Hi-tech’s third quarter earnings announcement tonight revealed that the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 was approximately 6,399 million yuan, an increase of 17.55% year-on-year; net profit was about 2.26 billion yuan, an increase of 82.19% year-on-year. Among them, the net profit in the third quarter was 950 million yuan, an increase of 84.91% year-on-year, a slight increase compared to the first half of the year.
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