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Decisive battle central and local intensive deployment in the fourth quarter of steady growth
The “troika” fully exercises its momentum and the economy recovers throughout the year
Following the announcement of the “Quarterly Report” of the China economy, local governments have successively released their economic report cards for the third quarter and local economies have shown an accelerated recovery based on stabilization and recovery in the second. trimester. So far, of the 23 provinces that have released third-quarter economic performance data, the cumulative annual GDP growth rate of 20 provinces has recovered to a positive range. At the same time, from the central government to the local ones, the economic situation analysis meeting and the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee were intensively conducted to carry out intensive consultation and deployment around the fourth quarter of the sprint and decisive victory throughout the year.
Industry experts noted that in accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development and building a new development pattern, the macroeconomic policy approach is expected to continue to focus on promoting the internal cycle, and policies are expected to such as further expansion of investment and promotion of consumption accelerate implementation. In China, the international market expansion will continue to increase. With the full force of the “troika”, there is a high probability that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will continue to increase, and the economy will be more confident throughout the year to recover.
Highlights of the “quarterly reports” of the local economy
In the first three quarters, Shandong Province GDP increased 1.9% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the first half of the year; Guizhou Province GDP increased 3.2% year-on-year and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points faster than in the first half of the year; Anhui province’s GDP rebounded to 2.5%, faster than the national rate of 1.8 percentage points … Recently, “quarterly reports” from many provinces have appeared intensively. According to the reporter’s preliminary statistics, as of now, 23 provinces have released third-quarter economic performance data. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year GDP growth rate of 20 provinces returned to the positive growth range.
In general, the economies of various regions are showing an accelerated recovery trend. At a recent press conference held by the local government, when the relevant official presented the economic trends in the third quarter, he frequently emphasized keywords such as “steady recovery”, “strong rebound” and “better than expected”.
For example, according to Ye Fusheng, chief statistician at the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Hubei’s economic development went from a “press break” in the first quarter to a “restart and resume” in the second quarter and then “recovered. constantly “in the third trimester. The economy continued to recover and the vitality of the market continued to increase. . Yu Chenghe, deputy secretary general of the Shandong provincial government and spokesman for the provincial government, said Shandong’s GDP showed a strong recovery trend from “cold in the first quarter, warm in the second quarter and progress in the third quarter.” “In the first three quarters, the economic operation of the province has developed in the direction of normalization, with a general recovery, a constant recovery and a gradual improvement, which is better than the first semester, better than the national average and better than expected. “
“The national economy continues to grow and the process of economic restoration is accelerating.” Lin Zhiyuan, deputy director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter. On the demand side, consumer spending in the third quarter became a major driver of local economic growth. ; In terms of investment, investment in manufacturing has become the main driving force behind the continued strength of fixed investment throughout society. He noted that the national epidemic has been effectively contained, the accommodation and catering industries have recovered strongly in the third quarter, and other industries of services, information services, real estate, transportation and warehousing and postal services have achieved a recovery. constant.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department at the China Center for International Economic Exchange, told the Economic Information Daily reporter that all localities are working hard to restore the economy under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic, and one after another is making contributions to the strategic foundation of expanding domestic demand, including guidance. Consumption replacement and possible release. In his opinion, the “three quarterly reports” of the local economy have many positive aspects. Among them, the provinces that have undergone rapid transformation have accelerated the development process of digital empowerment, comprehensively improved the quality and efficiency of economic development in the new situation, and each has focused on the positive role of the investment. .
Central to fight for the fourth quarter
It is worth noting that before and after the intensive dissemination of the “Three Quarterly Reports” of the economy, from the central government to local governments, intensive consultations and arrangements took place around the fourth quarter of the sprint and the decisive victory during all year.
The video symposium held on October 12 by the main leaders of some local governments on the economic situation emphasized the consolidation of economic stability and the recovery of growth. The meeting requested that, in accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development and building a new development pattern, in the prevention and control of standardized epidemics, continue to do a good job in the work of the “six stability”, implement the “six guarantees” tasks, rely on reform and openness to solve development problems, and fight resolutely Win the battle against poverty, strive for positive economic growth throughout the year and make sure you meet the main objectives and tasks of this year.
On October 14, the Operations Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission held a videoconference on the analysis of the situation of the economic operation of key industries in the first three quarters. On October 21, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a national teleconference on the work of monitoring information and communications, which required the resolute completion of several tasks this year to ensure the satisfactory conclusion of the “13th Five-Year Plan “; at the same time, it takes seriously the goal of building a strong network and a strong manufacturing country. Think about the key problems in the next stage, strive for new things and create a new situation.
The localities have also planned and made every effort to accelerate during the fourth quarter to ensure that the goals and tasks for the year are completed. For example, on October 22, Yunnan province held a conference on the province’s economic situation in the first three quarters to discuss the outstanding problems faced in economic operations and to study and deploy economic work in the fourth quarter. The Hebei Province Economic Work Promotion and Safety and Stability Conference held on October 23 requires that we do our best to do the work in the fourth quarter, strive for standardized epidemic prevention and control, and economic and social development, and ensure the full realization of annual goals and tasks.
Judging from the focus of work in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle in various regions, expand effective investment, promote consumption expansion and quality improvement, and fully unleash the potential for economic development are still the main tasks.
Among them, Sichuan Province requires to expand investment in projects, vigorously promote industrial recovery, intensify efforts to boost market consumer demand, vigorously promote the stability and quality of foreign trade and foreign trade, and take firm measures to win the fourth quarter.
Guangdong Province proposes to intensify support for the development of the real economy, do everything possible to stabilize industrial growth, pay close attention to the construction of key projects, fully seize the key role of investment, improve policies and measures of Consumption promotion, seize the market consumption growth potential through multiple channels and vigorously explore In the international market, pay close attention to the construction of major foreign investment projects.
Economic growth is expected to increase in the fourth quarter
Experts noted that currently, the entire country is closely focusing on the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the annual goals and tasks, rushing into the fourth quarter to ensure a good ending. With the accelerated release of favorable macroeconomic policies and the full force of the “troika”, the economic growth rate is expected to increase in the fourth quarter and it will have more confidence to meet the annual economic and social development goals.
Meng Wei, deputy director and spokesman for the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently said that the steady recovery in economic operations in the third quarter once again demonstrated that China’s economy has strong resilience and great potential. In the next step, we will strengthen the coordination of various tasks in the fourth quarter of this year and early next year, and we will arrange for coordination between important policy years. We have the foundation, the conditions and the confidence to meet this year’s economic and social development goals.
“The key to stabilizing the economy in the fourth quarter lies in how to play the key role of investment, especially by making good use of budget funds that have been or are being issued, local special bonds and anti-epidemic national debt. As long as the new investment is put to good use, efforts to expand effective investment while simultaneously driving a rapid increase in consumption can provide strong impetus to consolidate the upward momentum of economic stabilization, “said Liu Xiangdong.
Lin Zhiyuan believes that the next macroeconomic policy is expected to focus on promoting the domestic cycle, especially the expansion of domestic demand. Monetary policy will maintain current strength, general fiscal expenditures will continue to exert force, structural pressures remain, expenditures on health and social security are expected to exceed budgets, and expenditures on education, transportation, agriculture, forestry and water as well. will be increased to complete budgets.
“As more favorable policies accelerate implementation and come into effect, the annual economic situation is expected to achieve a V-shaped recovery, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to increase again and the annual growth rate reaches a positive growth of more than 2%, “Liu Xiangdong judged. (Reporter Zhu Guosheng Ban Juanjuan)
