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Securities Times Reporter Wu Jiaming
Recently, abroad, especially in Europe and the United States, the epidemic has struck again and its severity has exceeded the first round of epidemics. In the view of some foreign institutions, investors are more concerned about the possibility of major events such as the US elections, the new corona pneumonia epidemic and the delay in the launch of the new corona vaccine.
According to media reports, the new corona pneumonia epidemic in Europe has recently recovered strongly, and the number of recently confirmed cases shows explosive growth. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in a single day in Germany reached a new record since the outbreak. German Chancellor Merkel expressed her concern about the current spread of the epidemic in a weekly video podcast at 24 local time. She said that there are already many epidemics in Germany and that more and more local health departments are unable to track or block them. Chain of infection. Merkel called on people to unite and jointly contain the rapid spread of the epidemic, and asked people to avoid unnecessary travel, avoid unnecessary meetings and stay home as much as possible.
In addition to Germany, Poland reported 13,628 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia last Friday, and the number of new deaths in a single day in the country reached a record high. Poland will adopt a series of comprehensive measures to block public life to prevent a sharp increase in confirmed cases. According to the French health department, there are currently more than 14,000 hospitalized patients in France, of whom 2,319 are seriously ill, which means that half of France’s ICUs are occupied. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the five countries with the highest infection rates in the world are in Europe, with the most severe countries being the Czech Republic, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and France.
The epidemic in Europe continues to spread, with many countries re-imposing strict lockdowns and business confidence has suffered. Some institutions have predicted that the European economy may slide into a double dip recession. Recently, Nomura Securities analysts George Buckley and Chiara Zangarelli have also significantly lowered their GDP forecasts for European countries in their research reports. The worst of these is that the UK economy will contract in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next, or it may not be able to usher in a V-shaped recovery. Instead, it will exhibit a “V shape. of W “asymmetric. Nomura noted that the significant increase in confirmed cases of new corona pneumonia in Europe, combined with restrictions imposed by governments in response to the epidemic, may limit the pace of economic recovery in the euro area. It is expected that by 2022, the region’s GDP is reduced by more than 3% compared to the end of 2019..
The second epidemic also broke out in the United States. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases of new crowns in the United States reached the largest weekly increase since July. Since the outbreak earlier this year, more than 222,000 people have died in the United States, which is the country with the highest number of deaths from new coronary pneumonia in the world.
After researching investors, Evercore ISI strategists concluded that compared to the United States general election, the possibility of the new corona epidemic and the delay in the launch of the new corona vaccine worries more to the investors. Francis Collins, president of the National Institutes of Health, said in an interview with National Public Radio recently that considering the vaccine development schedule and related standards that must be followed, the United States is unlikely to be regulated by the United States before the end. of November. The new office-approved corona vaccine is available.Return to Sohu to see more
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