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Original Title: Fall and Winter Demand for Flu Vaccines Rises Dramatically
The long-term solution mechanism is to use the digital mechanism to build the demand for next year, the supply is ready, the quantity is allocated, and the digital supply and demand coincide, but it does not rule out that some demand is dynamic. This part can speed up the offering if the company’s process technology can keep up. Like the use of genetic recombination technology.
“The flu vaccine is very tight at this time and we will notify you when the vaccine arrives.” On October 20, a staff member from the Gaobeidian Community Health Service Center in Beijing’s Chaoyang District responded to the request for the appointment of a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, saying there were already more than 1,000 people. Waiting in line to receive a notification.
The aforementioned health services center vaccination appointment situation is actually just a microcosm of the current flu vaccine. Reporters for the 21st Century Business Herald learned from some tertiary hospitals that it is also difficult to receive a single shot of the flu vaccine. According to the understanding, since early fall and winter, news of a shortage of vaccine supplies influenza has continued to spread.
Yin Jie, director of the Ali Health and Immunization Planning Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that on the Ali Health platform, the number of online flu vaccine service reservations in recent months has increased 35 times in compared to last year, and the month-to-month increase has been 6 times from August to September.
As for the current imbalance between supply and demand for influenza vaccines, vaccine experts and vaccine manufacturers have said that the current situation is basically over because it is too late to produce it. Vaccine expert Tao Lina told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that a supply-demand coupling mechanism needs to be innovated.
According to Yin Jie, it is understood that although there was a shortage of vaccine supply last year, 20% of the vaccines were still discarded due to the uneven match of regional supply and demand. Many companies produced according to last year’s production capacity. What can be done is to pass The digitization of the Internet will clarify the specific needs, and there is still a window period of a month and a half. The long-term solution mechanism is to use the digital mechanism to build demand for the next year. The supply is ready, the quantity is distributed, and the digital supply and demand match. However, it does not rule out that some demand is dynamic. This part can speed up the offering if the company’s process technology can keep up. Like the use of genetic recombination technology.
Expanding demand
Already at the 2020 (37th) National Medical Industry Annual Information Conference held on August 30, Zhang Hui, vice president of the China Food and Drug Control Research Institute, said that so far this year there have been emitted more than 30 million cases of influenza. Vaccines are estimated to reach 50 million doses before flu season.
According to the China Inspection Institute influenza vaccine batch release data, from January to September, a total of 33.96 million influenza vaccines were issued in China, exceeding the total number of 30 , 78 million in the entire year of last year.
In fact, it can be seen from the data above that the production capacity in 2020 has increased substantially. Why is it still difficult to find a needle?
Yin Jie analyzed to a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that due to the impact of the new corona epidemic, public awareness of vaccination has increased, leading to a large increase in demand; At the same time, the new corona epidemic and influenza factors have overlapped, and many governments have empowered the elderly, children and other high-risk groups. Vaccination and public procurement.
On September 29, the Comprehensive Group of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued the 2020 version of the “National Plan for Prevention and Control of Influenza” (hereinafter, the “Plan”). This is the third year in a row that China has issued a national influenza prevention and control plan. The “Plan” proposed that influenza vaccination is a globally recognized effective means of preventing and controlling influenza.
It is essentially different from the common cold, influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with fever and more obvious systemic symptoms, which seriously endangers the health of the population.
Academic Wang Chen, dean of Peking Union Medical College, an expert in respiratory and critical care medicine, and Professor Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Shanghai Huashan Hospital, have repeatedly recommended influenza vaccination.
Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said recently that the demand for influenza vaccination has increased significantly this year, and Beijing has also increased its purchases of vaccines. The purchase volume of self-financed vaccines is double that of last year, but they must be delivered in batches. Free vaccines are up 21% from last year.
Feng Luzhao, executive vice president of the Faculty of Medicine and Public Health of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences-Peking Union Medical College, said that the annual rate of influenza vaccination in China is 2% to 3%, and it is expected that the vaccination rate reaches 4% this year.
In this context, Huaan Securities believes that the current penetration rate of influenza vaccines in China is low. With the increase in approved manufacturers, increased production capacity, and regions with strong economic strength, free vaccination will be provided to key populations. The industry has a large room for growth and the size of the future market will exceed tens of billions. Tianfeng Securities believes that public attention and demand for influenza vaccines may increase significantly this year, and is optimistic that this year’s influenza vaccine sales will exceed expectations.
Supply and demand coupling mechanism awaiting innovation
However, regarding the current imbalance between supply and demand for flu vaccines, vaccine experts and vaccine manufacturers have told reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald that the current situation is basically over.
“The production capacity is basically determined when the workshop is built. Basically, the increase in production can only be achieved by extending the production season, so the current situation cannot be solved. Because the production season is extends, the vaccines produced later will also be issued with the corresponding delay. “A manager from a vaccine manufacturer pointed out.
Vaccine manufacturers are reportedly required to determine the flu vaccine development and production plan for the upcoming flu season based on WHO recommendations.
Although there are new processes of genetic recombination, the dominant technology in China still uses chicken embryos (special eggs that hatch about 10 days after fertilization). As the most mature flu vaccine technology, chicken embryo technology was born in the 1940s. The flu vaccine produced is safe, effective, and inexpensive, but the cycle is long, usually 4 to 6 months, and will be supplied by chicken embryos. limit. Thus, the earliest date to market the influenza vaccine each year is June and July.
Such a long cycle also makes it difficult for vaccine companies to flexibly adjust production according to demand. Because the flu vaccine is only valid for one year and the strains of the flu virus change each year, if the previous year’s vaccine is not used up, it must be destroyed and full production can lead to overproduction. From the perspective of the production company, 20% scrapping is likely to generate losses, and they are hesitant to expand production when demand is uncertain.
In fact, in addition to product loss, medical waste treatment and transportation costs will also be incurred. Therefore, to avoid waste, vaccine manufacturers can often only determine production volume in the new year based on market demand and raw materials from the previous year.
In this sense, Taolina believes that it is necessary to establish a new mechanism for coupling supply and demand: production is determined based on demand and is properly floated.
Yin Jie analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that through digital matching, the government and companies can understand the demand of the vaccinated population and the distribution of the vaccine supply, in order to optimize regional supply and demand.
It is understood that the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France and other countries have established an advance order system to request vaccines for the next influenza season 7-10 months in advance. Yin Jie also said that digital correspondence can be carried out from the source of orders, and a linking mechanism can be established between supply and demand that allows companies to prepare for production in advance and make supply based on orders.
Yin Jie said: “There will also be some changes in the demand for vaccines. Because the vaccine production cycle is long, the data collected in March may change in September. Companies may consider optimizing the production process processes. and the digital matching of supply and demand, and make real-time Adjustment. “
(Author: Zhu Ping Editor: Zhang Xing)
