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Original title: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods shows a recovery trend, online retail continues to grow rapidly
On October 19, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that market sales improved significantly and online retail continued to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, total retail sales of consumer goods were 273.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and the rate of decline decreased by 4.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, the third quarter increased 0.9% and the quarterly growth rate turned positive for the first time during the year.
In September, total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.5295 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points higher than in August, and has grown during two consecutive months. In the first three quarters, depending on the location of the business unit, retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas were 236,843 million yuan, a decrease of 7.3%; rural consumer goods retail sales were 368.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7%. In terms of consumption types, catering service revenue was 2.522.6 billion yuan, down 23.9%, retail sales of goods were 2.48.098 billion yuan, down 5.1%. Sales of consumer upgrade products grew rapidly and retail sales of communications equipment, sports and entertainment products and cosmetics increased 7.2%, 6.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In the first three quarters, domestic online retail sales reached 806.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than the first half of the year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods was 6.647.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3%, accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods.
Liu Aihua, spokeswoman for the National Statistics Office and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has shown a rebound in recent months, with an increase of 3.3% in September, achieving positive growth for two consecutive months. From a trend point of view, it can be said that current retail has come out of the deep impact brought by the epidemic and is in the process of recovery. In terms of real performance, while online consumption maintains rapid growth, offline consumption also shows an accelerated recovery trend. The second change is that while physical consumption maintains relatively rapid growth, service consumption is also recovering faster. The third characteristic is that while basic vital consumption has maintained relatively rapid growth, the growth of consumer enhancement products has maintained relatively rapid growth.
Liu Aihua said that from these aspects, the overall recovery in domestic demand is relatively obvious, especially consumer demand. From a GDP perspective, in the second quarter, the contribution of final consumption spending to GDP was a drop of 2.3 percentage points, and in the third quarter it was 1.7 percentage points. This also shows that final consumption spending has indeed recovered from the downward trend of the previous two quarters. In the first quarter it fell by 4.4 percentage points and in the second quarter it fell to 2.3 percentage points. In the third quarter, the point of attraction of final consumption spending over overall GDP went from negative to positive, representing 1.7% of the 4.9% growth in the quarter. So in general, the contribution of domestic demand continues to recover and continues to increase, which is very beneficial to build a new double-cycle development pattern. Unlocking the potential of China’s large market scale is not only a manifestation of the basic strategic foundation for expanding domestic demand, but also benefits the recovery of the entire world economy.
Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, said in an interview with a Securities Daily reporter that the single-quarter growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter turned positive, and consumer spending end boosted GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points, and consumption began to accelerate the recovery. The main reasons are as follows. : First, with the economic restoration, the income of the residents has increased steadily; second, countercyclical policies such as “maintaining people’s basic livelihoods” have played an important role in stabilizing consumption; third, the impact of the epidemic has weakened and the characteristics of the restoration of consumption differentiation have converged. Consumption limited by “social distance” began to recover.
In an interview with a Securities Daily reporter, Wang Qing, Oriental Jincheng’s chief macroeconomic analyst, said that from the perspective of specific commodity categories, the acceleration in retail sales in September was mainly due to accelerated growth in retail sales. of grains, oil, food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol. , Showing that the proximity of the two festivals will greatly boost consumption in September. Retail sales of essentials, Chinese and Western medicines and other necessities were relatively stable during the month, while the trend for consumer optional goods continued to diverge. In September, the growth rate of retail sales of optional consumer goods such as cars, gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics slowed to varying degrees, but they were still at a relatively high level of growth. In September, consumption related to the real estate sector rose and fell, the growth rate of retail sales of furniture, building materials and decoration rebounded, and the growth rate of retail sales of home appliances turned negative year-on-year. In addition, with the rise in refined oil prices, the fall in retail sales of oil and products in September has been further moderated.
Looking to the fourth quarter, Wang Qing said that under the combined effect of economic continuation and restoration and various consumer promotion policies, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods still has room for recovery. However, considering that the real income of residents in the first three quarters has only increased slightly, consumer confidence has recovered to a marginal but still low level, and backward demand during the epidemic has concentrated and base has risen, which may lead to a rebound in total consumer goods retail sales As the growth rate of car sales, which is a major driving force, slows, the rate of growth is unlikely to growth in total retail sales of consumer goods continue to increase substantially in the fourth quarter.
