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Original title: Many international institutions are optimistic about China’s economic prospects. Foreign trade exceeds expectations and becomes a bright spot. Source: China Economic Net
Many international institutions are optimistic about China’s economic prospects
Reporter trainee Yang Jie
In the recent past, authoritative international organizations have successively published reports and forecasts on the world economy.
On October 13, the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the global economy will contract by 4.4% in 2020 and noted that China will be the only country of the major economies of the world that maintain positive growth. , China’s economy is expected to grow 1.9% this year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the June forecast.
On September 28, the World Bank released the East Asia andThe Pacific OceanThe Regional Economic Situation Report predicts that China’s economic growth rate will reach 2% this year, 1 percentage point higher than the June forecast, and notes that the region’s economies, except China, will contract by 3.5 % this year. At the same time, assuming that vaccines can come out, the economy will continue to recover and the economic activities of the major economies will normalize, China’s economy is expected to grow 7.9% next year.
In the “Global Economic Outlook” report published by the international rating agency Fitch in September, China’s economic growth forecast for 2020 rose from 1.2% to 2.7%, and China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.7% next year.
On October 14, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated at a regular press conference that China’s economy is showing a stable state of gradual return, which is certainly good news for the economy. world. Authoritative international institutions are optimistic about China’s economic development prospects, which will inject confidence and momentum into the recovery of the world economy.
Many industry experts interviewed by reporters expressed confidence in China’s economic development prospects.
Tao Jin, a senior fellow at the Suning Institute of Financial Research, told a Securities Daily reporter that first of all, the new corona pneumonia epidemic has been continuously and effectively controlled, work and production quickly resumed and the economy is steadily recovering. At the same time, the problem of structural differentiation in the economic recovery process has been alleviated, in the initial stage, the productive side led the economic recovery and consumption has continued to repair itself steadily in recent times. When these pro-cyclical sectors recover further, they will be better able to withstand the expansion of the total amount in the fourth quarter and in the future. Second, countercyclical adjustment policies are effective and there is enough political space in the future. First, policy was strong during the epidemic, fiscal policy was proactive, and monetary policy was timely and flexible, effectively supporting aggregate demand. Second, in the context of the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, policies are oriented towards structural problems of economic recovery, reduction of taxes and fees and other support for fiscal policy, monetary policy is guided by precision and capital flows to the real economy more smoothly. In addition, there is still a large political space in the field of infrastructure investment in the future, which can effectively support the sustainable recovery process.
“China’s economic recovery has become a bright spot in the world economy,” Zheng Lei, chief economist at Baoxin Financial, said in an interview with a reporter for Securities Daily. Due to the impact of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, some foreign production and operation activities have been blocked, and a large number of demand orders have flooded. Chinese enterprises, China has also attracted a large amount of foreign capital, and there has been a relatively prosperous situation in investment, production and exports.
It is worth mentioning that according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 13, China’s total import and export value of merchandise trade in the first three quarters reached RMB 23.12 trillion, an increase of 0 , 7% compared to the same period last year. The negative is the positive. The total value of imports and exports, the total value of exports and the total value of imports in the third quarter reached a quarterly record.
In Tao Jin’s view, foreign trade performance exceeded expectations and is an important highlight of the Chinese economy in the third quarter. Behind it is the offer advantage that brings the resumption of work and production and a complete industrial system. This advantage is expected to last for a long time.
“The world economy is still on the brink of crisis and there may be many unexpected emergencies in the fourth quarter, which should be treated with caution.” Zheng Lei said that the negative impact of the epidemic should expect a significant change after March next year. It should be noted that the new wave of epidemic peaks in the world may have an impact on China. At the same time, there are signs that the governments of several countries are preparing for financial support in the event of possible crises and the central bank needs to further relax monetary policy, in this sense, China still has more room for maneuver. (Daily Values)
【Edit: Chen Haifeng】
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