The RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate in both directions

Original title: RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate in both directions

Summary

[El tipo de cambio del RMB seguirá fluctuando en ambas direcciones]On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the RMB exchange rate on land against the US dollar rose sharply, above 6.80 and 6.70 in one day. On the same day, the RMB land exchange rate transaction price and the closing price reached new highs in a year and a half. (Journal of economic information)

On October 9, the first business day after the National Day holiday, ashoreRMBThe exchange rate against the US dollar rose sharply, above 6.80 and 6.70 in one day.RMB exchange rateBoth the transaction price and the closing price reached new highs in a year and a half.

During the National Day holiday, due to the global epidemic, US elections and geopolitics, etc.Long and shortIntertwined factors, the US dollar index was broadly stable, with a cumulative decline of 0.3%. Therefore, the rise in the RMB exchange rate after the holidays is due more to the sharp rise in the exchange rate of RMB abroad during the holidays.marketThe compensatory rise of the market.

Since it hit a multi-year low in late May, the renminbi’s exchange rate has fluctuated higher. In more than four months, the central and closing prices have appreciated between 5% and 6%, but it is still less than the fifteen times from the beginning of 2017 to the end of March 2018. In the month, the accumulated appreciation was around 10%. Also, this round of highs is higher than the highest on March 27, 2018.AgreementThe price is about 7% lower. It can be seen that this round of appreciation is not the longest and largest increase since the “8 · 11” exchange rate reform.

From an economic fundamentals perspective, China’s current account is basically balanced and the RMB exchange rate tends to be balanced and reasonable;Cash FlowLooking ahead, private external net liabilities remain basically stable, without increasing leverage again or continuing to disappear, and capital flows have a neutral effect on the evolution of the exchange rate. In this context, as the exchange rate breaks through a major psychological barrier, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate trend has increased. For example, after setting a new high for the year on September 18, the RMB exchange rate experienced a wave of rapid adjustments. At the end of September, the average price and the closing price had each corrected around 0.8%. But on the first trading day after the holidays, the median price made up most of the lost ground and the closing price hit a new high for the year.

No director for a yearDeliveryIn terms of forward transactions, the expectation of implicit exchange rate appreciation remains above 1% after the first day’s exchange rate rises sharply, which means that the RMB exchange rate may still rise inertially In the short term, however, from a territorial share trading perspective, net sales continued for the eight business days before the holiday. Only 11.2 billion yuan of net purchases occurred on October 9, indicating the exchange rate of the RMB that day.Lift upFear of premeditated action before the festival Second, within the same dayBankThe transaction volume of spot consultation transactions in the international market was US $ 26.8 billion, a decrease of 10% from the average daily transaction volume of the previous month. It also showed that there were no abnormal transactions in the domestic market due to the increase of the RMB exchange rate, I need to pay close attention in the futureCapital to the northNet inflowAnd the sustainability of market appreciation expectations.

In the future, there will continue to be many uncertain and unstable internal and external factors, and the factors that will affect the appreciation and devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will exist simultaneously.Efficient market hypothesis, Whether it is the reason for the appreciation or the basis for the devaluation, this information will be reflected inForeign exchangetransactionPricesIt’s just that sometimes appreciation factors prevail and sometimes devaluation factors dominateMarket exchange rateIt presents the characteristics of the multiple equilibrium of non-linear random walks. If you just extrapolate linearly, you are often too far. At the same time, the stability of the exchange rate does not mean that it is fixed, and the coexistence of depreciation factors also leads to a two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate. In the short term, we must pay attention to the benefits of recovery,Exchange policyAdjustment, Overseas Epidemic Rebound, US Election Campaign, Financial MarketChangeFactors that can affect market confidence and trigger fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

During this round of appreciation,RMB exchange rate indexIncreased by about 2%, much smaller than the same periodBilateral exchange rateIncrease and thereforeTo exportcompanyThe financial impact is much greater than the impact of competitiveness. For most companies, rather than guessing if there is a “new exchange rate cycle”, it is better to establish risk neutrality, establish financial discipline and reducecoinMismatch, use the right tools and methods to manage currency risk and focus on doing a good job in your core business.

(Source: Daily economic information)

(Responsible editor: DF522)