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After the ceasefire, the conflict will be repeated
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The conflict has lasted half a month and the two countries have also shown fatigue, like a “tinderbox of the Caucasus”, the Naka issue involves multiple interests. Except for the two Asian countries and Afghanistan, the play of external forces will determine the direction of the situation in Naqqa.
Shortly after the ceasefire agreement entered into force, Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of launching attacks in violation of the agreement. Obviously, as a long-standing historical problem, the Naqqa conflict is difficult to end easily.
However, in the eyes of analysts, the conflict has lasted half a month and the two countries have also shown fatigue, in this case, the play of external forces will determine the course of the situation in Naqqa.
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On October 11, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry declared that Ganja, the second largest city in Azerbaijan, was attacked from Armenia.
According to the Azerbaijan News Agency, a residential building was hit and destroyed by a rocket fired from the Asian side. 5 civilians were killed, 17 were injured and some buildings and vehicles were damaged.
However, this news was denied by Armenia.
The day before, the Armenian Defense Ministry declared that a few minutes after the ceasefire agreement came into force, an Azerbaijani missile hit its inner city of Kapan.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry also denied this statement, calling it provocative.
Currently, neither Aya nor Aya have released the latest military casualties.
On October 10, the foreign ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia just issued a statement in Moscow that the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement.
The two parties agreed to cease fire in the Naka area starting at 12:00 on the 10th, local time, and to exchange prisoners of war and remains of victims under the coordination of the ICRC.
The Naka region is located in southwestern Azerbaijan and its residents are mostly Armenians. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for the Battle of Nakka.
In 1994, the two countries reached an agreement on a complete ceasefire, but they have always been in a state of hostility over the Naqqa issue, and there have been conflicts from time to time.
Since September 27, the two countries began firing in the Naka area. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the initiative in launching a military offensive. After that, the two countries successively announced that the country had entered a state of war and carried out a military mobilization.
Since the 11th, the current round of conflict has lasted for half a month, resulting in hundreds of deaths, thousands of people were forced to flee, and half the population of the Naka region was displaced.
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The situation in the Naka region has attracted constant attention from the international community.
On September 27, as soon as the conflict began, UN Secretary General Guterres expressed “extreme concern” and called on both sides to stop fighting and return to the negotiating table.
As the most influential country in the region, Russia is naturally unwilling to further escalate the conflict between the two sides.
On October 9, the foreign ministers of the two countries were invited to Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire and the exchange of the remains and prisoners of the dead.
After 10 hours of negotiations, the two parties finally reached a ceasefire agreement at 12:00 on the 10th.
In 1992, at the initiative of Russia, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group made up of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs.
Since then, negotiations on the Naka issue at different levels have been carried out within the framework of the Minsk Group, but no substantial progress has been made.
This time, after Aya reached a ceasefire agreement, France called on both parties to “strictly abide by the agreement and create the conditions for a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
According to Reuters, Azerbaijan hopes to change the way of negotiations and requires Turkey to join the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
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With regard to the Naqqa issue, Turkey’s role in the development of the situation has become increasingly evident.
French Foreign Minister Le Drian once claimed that Turkey’s previous military intervention runs the risk of spreading the conflict to an international scale.
After the ceasefire agreement was reached, Turkey welcomed it and recognized the humanitarian ceasefire as an “important first step”. But at the same time, he said that a ceasefire is not a long-term solution.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement: “Turkey will continue to support Azerbaijan on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”
Since the ceasefire, Armenia and Azerbaijan, who had been fighting for half a month, had shown fatigue.
Earlier, according to the Russian website “Independence”, experts pointed out that in the Naqqa conflict, neither side can clearly win.
When it comes to territoriality and sovereignty, the Naqqa problem cannot fundamentally be solved in a short time. As a “powder keg of the Caucasus”, the Naka issue involves multiple interests. Except for the two Asian countries and Afghanistan, the play of external forces will play an important role in directing the situation in Naqqa.
On the 10th, Guterres issued a statement through a spokesperson, welcoming Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region, and at the same time called on all parties to the conflict in the Naka region respecting the ceasefire agreement.
The statement said Guterres urged the international community to support the ceasefire agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia and continue to encourage the two sides to resolve their differences through peaceful means.
Zhao Xiaozhan
