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Original Caption: Film Company Stock Price Decline After National Day File: Uncertainty Remains Unresolved at Year End
The National Day holiday is over and the challenge of the film market has just begun.
According to preliminary statistics from the National Film Finance Office, during the 2020 National Day period (October 1-8), the box office for films across the country will generate 3.952 billion yuan, attracting nearly 100 million people. to see the movie.
Among them, the movie “My Hometown and I” has a cumulative box office of 1.87 billion yuan; “Jiang Ziya” has a cumulative box office of 1,384 million yuan; “Winning Championship” generated a box office of 360 million yuan during the period; “Vanguard” generated a box office of 164 million yuan during the period; “Get Home at One Point” has a cumulative box office of 100 million yuan.
There is still a gap in this performance year after year. In the 7-day holiday last year, the National Day box office reached 4.466 million yuan, and the number of viewers also decreased. The 75% attendance rate after the epidemic may be an influencing factor, but the impact is limited. The reporter noted when watching movies in many high-ranking cinemas in Beijing that under attendance restrictions, theaters mainly closed the first row of non-gold seats and the front row seats were not easy to sell. Lighthouse data shows that the attendance rate for National Day booths last year was 36% and this year’s attendance rate was 26.93%.
Of course, in addition to last year, this year’s National Day archive is considered a very good result in the same period in film history, and has a considerable gap to third place in history (the 2017 box office of 2,656 million yuan).
What gives the industry peace of mind is that nearly 100 million people watched the film, which means that audience fear of watching movies after the epidemic has been minimized. Previously, many film investment directors told reporters at the 21st Century Business Herald that their biggest concern was that audiences would not dare to go to the movies, which would affect the release rate of the film.
Industry folks breathed a sigh of relief, but the capital market is still full of doubts about the film industry. At the close of October 9, Beijing Culture, the first producer of “My Hometown and Me”, closed at 7.99 yuan, down 4.31%, Guangguang Media, the main producer of “Jiang Ziya”, closed at 14.40 yuan, a decrease of 13.57%; “Huanxi Media producer reported a closing price of HK $ 1.37, down 0.72%;” Pioneer “producer of Chinese movies, reported a closing price of 14.11 yuan, a slight increase from 0.14%. Before the epidemic, the company’s main source of income was the distribution business: “The main producer, Ali Pictures, closed at 1.15 Hong Kong dollars, 3.36% less.
Each basic stock price has its own reasons, but the collective floating green after the most important period has common factors.
The film giants must advance in uncertainty.
Looking for certainty
The short selling of film companies in the market is due in large part to their uncertainty.
This year’s National Day archives staged a staggering “counterattack.” The unstoppable first animation “Jiang Ziya” suffered a decline in reputation. On the third day of its premiere, it was overtaken by the main theme of the film “My hometown and me”, focused on poverty alleviation, and finally opened almost 5 Distance of 100 million yuan.
“Jiang Ziya” is highly anticipated for “Nezha’s Devil Child Comes into the World” previously produced by Enlight Media. “My Hometown and Me” was produced by Zhang Yimou as director, Ning Hao, Xu Zheng, Chen Sicheng, Yan Fei and Peng Damo, Deng Chao and Yu Baimei directed five-story comedy films respectively. To a large extent, the explosion of “Nezha: The Devil Boy Comes into the World” has raised the light to a high stock price and distanced itself from movie companies.
However, the long-awaited “Jiang Ziya” didn’t work out as expected in the end, largely due to the film’s failed storytelling. “Jiang Ziya” has exquisite and magnificent images, and the production team is full of sincerity. Technically, it can be called the first echelon in China, even beating “Nezha: The Devil Boy Comes to the World”. But the problem with “Jiang Ziya” is that there is too much to express, which makes the plot too compact, and the turning point is blunt.
“Me and my hometown” is the opposite. Unlike “Jiang Ziya” which took many years to be built by the deluxe team of over a thousand people, “My Hometown and Me” is a collection of stories from various great directors, fast paced, smooth and just to play the hearts of the people. It is difficult to say that the film is representative work of the directors, but it is very well finished and it is timely.
The biggest gap is the rate of return. The relatively “short and fast” “My hometown and I” even received a large amount of subsidies. According to the Beijing Cultural Financing Report, the film received 13 million yuan from the National Film Bureau’s special fund for film boutiques and 10 million yuan from the Cultural Orientation and Propaganda Fund of the Beijing Cultural Development Center.
On the night of October 9, Beijing Culture announced that as of October 8, its income from “My Hometown and I” was between 80 million yuan and 100 million yuan. At the time, the movie’s cumulative box office revenue was roughly 18.71. 100 million yuan.
In view of the high investment in animation, “Jiang Ziya” director Cheng Teng admitted to the outside world that he has no special expectations for the box office, “I hope investors do not lose money.” In this case, it will certainly affect the performance of the light. In fact, Guangguang has regarded animation as a leading product and has invested in more than 20 upstream and downstream companies in the animation industry chain. The failure of “Jiang Ziya” will cause the outside world to doubt Guangxi’s long-term value.
There are many reasons why Guangguang has vigorously displayed animation. This company started with television. It has no historical advantages in the film industry like Huayi Brothers and China Film. Furthermore, the animation industry itself is a long chain market. If IP is built successfully, it is relatively controllable. Let’s take Disney as an example. In fiscal 2018, its media network and film and television entertainment revenue accounted for 58%, theme parks, copyright and publishing, gaming and retail, and others accounted for 42%, of which theme parks, Copyright & Publishing & Games, Retail & Other revenue in fiscal 2018 were $ 20.3 billion, $ 3.1 billion, and $ 1.6 billion. From the perspective of the Japanese animation industry market, according to the annual statistics of the Japan Animation Association, the amount of payment of users in the animation market is estimated. In 2017, the animation marketing market was 523.2 billion yen, which is 24% of the scale of the Japanese animation industry.
The failure of “Jiang Ziya” is not a problem with the animation itself. For light, animation has historical advantages, but it must be resolved. How to convince capital and, more importantly, make the commercial profitability of the project relatively controllable. After all, the investment in animation is too great.
The semi-annual report shows that for the current period, Guangming’s revenue was 259 million yuan, -77.86% year-on-year; net profit was 20,572 million yuan, -80.46% year-on-year; the ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was 1,356 million yuan, which was 1,043 million yuan in the same period last year.
Although “My Hometown and I” has exploded, the foundations of Beijing culture behind it are not as good as light. The financial report shows that this company involved in various riots had revenue of only RMB 5,648,500 in the first half of the year, which was -91.37% year-on-year; the net loss was RMB 64,298,300, which was 39.87% year-on-year; the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was only 44,403,600 yuan. Yuan, 218 million yuan in the same period last year.
“Movies can’t be fixed”
For Capital, the main films “Jiang Ziya” and “My Hometown and Me”, the producer behind them, or the film itself, have several problems, he is optimistic, but it is really difficult.
In fact, the outstanding narrative ability of the so-called “My Hometown and I” was originally a core skill of the film, and behind it was the choice of the producer. This type of certainty is quite difficult for the capital market to grasp and understand.
On the other hand, just after National Day during the highlight period, the industry has begun to worry about the future “no movie can be fixed.”
Recently, Cineworld, the UK’s largest theater chain operator and the world’s second largest, announced that it will suspend operations in UK and US cinemas from 8 October. Behind the suspension of the giants is that the overseas epidemic remains unchanged. Previously, blockbuster movies such as “Black Widow” and “The Tragedy on the Nile” had stated that they would continue to postpone their releases. In the next two months, Hollywood will once again face a situation where there are no movies available and blockbuster movies will not be available on the Chinese market.
Without Hollywood blockbusters, new domestic blockbusters are relatively rare. Except for the movie “King Kong River,” directed by Guan Hu, Guo Fan, and Lu Yang, which opens on October 25, there will be no blockbuster movies with special appeal on the market until December.
The blockbusters have fallen in love with the Spring Festival booth. On October 9, “Detective Chinatown 3” announced that it was scheduled for the Spring Festival next year. Additionally, many industry insiders told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that many commercial blockbusters are struggling to land right now.
This exacerbated the next movie shortage in the near future. “There are no movies to program, copy and paste every day.” A theater director joked so bitterly.
Behind the film shortage, the movie company itself is stabilizing, in essence, its harsh living environment, choosing to shrink. It is a life and death coup for the cinema.
“You can only survive, there is no other option.” Many people at Beijing Film Investment said that they have been using their savings to subsidize the present.
According to a previous report released by Tuopu Data, as of September 9, 2020, there are still 1,807 theaters in the country that last year have charged properties that have not resumed work, and the number of theaters that have not resumed work represented the 15.79%. Of the theaters that have not resumed work, theaters with an annual box office of less than 2 million accounted for more than 60%.
(Author: HE Hong Source Editor: Cao Jinliang)
