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Original title: Decision analysis: Global market constantly “scares” Trump’s confirmation of new crown and non-farm unrest panic is expected to continue
FX168 Financial News (London) News October 2 from 15:00 to 22:30
Friday (October 2) European market afternoon,Dollar indexAfter falling, it rose to 93.94 earlier and fell to 93.82 at the end of the session; Spot gold fell sharply from $ 1,911 per ounce that once hit a low of $ 1,898.06 per ounce.
The global market was “scared” today after US President Trump confirmed that he and the first lady tested positive for the new corona virus. The stock market fell sharply, gold rose once, and other safe-haven assets, such as the yen and US bonds, also rose sharply.
Investors did not hesitate to sell risky assets and European stocks generally fell. The UK FTSE 100 Index and the German DAX Index fell more than 1% after the open. US stocks then opened lower. The Dow Jones index fell 372.40 points, or 1.34%, to 27,444.50 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 48.81 points, or 1.44%, to 3,331.99 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 217.60 points, or 1.92%, to 11,108.91 points.
Oil also continued to fall throughout European time, with an intraday drop of 5%. “We have more questions than answers,” said Robert Rennie, Westpac’s head of market strategy. Rennie said that until the health outlook for Trump and the rest of the White House is clearer, investors can avoid risks. High assets.
Bloomberg commented that Trump’s diagnosis of new corona pneumonia has brought tension to the market. “We can see a 10% correction in US stocks.” The result is still too early. The market has a knee-jerk reaction to this news and investors are selling, which is understandable. “
According to the latest news, Trump’s symptoms are currently mild, similar to a cold. Trump reportedly attended a golf club event in Bedminster, NJ, during a fundraising event on Thursday. An aide said the president had contact with about 100 people. Going up a little sleepy. Some people familiar with the matter said Trump fell asleep on Air Force One when he was returning from a rally in Minnesota Wednesday night.
Trump’s treatment plan is reportedly still under discussion, and relevant staff are considering publishing his State of the Union address or recording a video to show that he is still working.
Additionally, US Vice President Pence and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have confirmed that they tested negative for the new corona virus within days. Biden will be tested for the new corona pneumonia virus this morning local time.
In addition to the news of Trump’s illness, investors are also concerned that the new round of stimulus bills in the United States may not yet reach a deal. Although the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives approved a $ 2.2 trillion package, it has yet to reach an agreement with the Republican Party. One of the key controversial issues is the weekly work insurance scale.
The highly anticipated last nonfarm report before the US elections was unsatisfactory today. The report shows that the non-farm employed population in the United States increased by only 661,000 in September, well below the 850,000 expected by economists, and below the growth of 1,489 million and 137.1 in July and August, respectively. But the unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% to 7.9%. Average wages increased 0.1%, which was also lower than the expected 0.2%.
Biden is currently leading the polls and Trump is diagnosed with new corona pneumonia and may not be able to participate in the next round of election debates. Therefore, this nonfarm report may be of vital importance to Trump. He once claimed that the US economy continued to recover under his leadership, but data suggests this recovery may be slowing.
Spurred by this batch of data, the slide in US equities deepened, with gold once rushing to the $ 1910 mark, but then rapidly reversing. Without a doubt, the volatility of the financial market is increasing. The VIX volatility index, known as the panic index, rose to 28.1 on Friday. Futures contracts also showed an increase in expectations of market turmoil in November and December.
Analysis of the main currencies:
EUR: On Friday in the European market in early trading, the EUR / USD opened at 1.1737. The European session fell, with the low reached 1.1697. Initial short-term exchange rate support is at 1.1689 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1768.
GBP: On Friday in the European market, the GBP / USD opened at 1.2877. The European period fluctuates sharply, the lowest reached 1.2892, the highest 1.2953, currently standing at 1.2930. The initial short-term support of the exchange rate is at 1.2805, and the initial resistance can be seen at 1.2965.
Yen: In early European trading on Friday, USD / JPY opened at 105.06. In European time, it rebounded from the previous low of 104.93 that had fallen sharply, reaching 105.33 as the highest. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 105.21, and initial resistance can be seen at 105.70.
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