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Original Title: Does Biden Dominate The First Debate? Whether the Stock Market Goes Up or Down Depends on What Analysts Say
Source: FX168 North America
FX168 Financial News (North America) News Wednesday (September 30), the day after a chaotic and controversial presidential debate, analysts are in deep labor trying to decipher the debate about the market and what is coming. What does the election mean?
The three major stock indices rose together, and the S&P 500 Index is currently up 1.34% to 3,380.72 points. This seems inconsistent with the story. Beginning in 1960, on average, the S&P 500 Index tended to fall the day after the televised debate. The return rates for periods of 5 days, 10 days and 1 month are also lower.
Here are the comments from analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere on the exchange:
UBSPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: “Perhaps the only thing worth mentioning is that this debate may raise people’s expectations of controversial election results. On this issue, international investors are willing to accept some extreme opinions (just as they had extreme opinions about the future of the euro zone in the past). Given the importance of international investors to the US market, this may increase volatility around the elections. Sex.”
Aberdeen Standard Investments Senior Political Economist Stephanie Kelly (Stephanie Kelly) said: “Trump’s particularly aggressive style last night may have been popular with some of his voters, but it was not as determined in 2016. To voters, like the Independent voters and suburban women, they may not like it very much. Preliminary polls after the debate show that Biden is considered a weak winner, but if there is a broader response based on different demographics, it will be very interesting. “
A team of Nomura economists led by Lewis Alexander stated: “Relatively speaking, Trump’s tougher stance and Biden’s cautious response may exacerbate some voters’ concerns about Biden’s age. Nonetheless, we believe this debate may not having convinced enough voters to change the basic situation that Biden won the election in November. “
David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at Benson Group, said: “The first presidential debate has no meaning for the market. It just strengthens the hopes, wishes, and assumptions of each candidate. For President Lampe, this is not a good night, but for the market, something encouraging may be that Biden seems to want to deviate a bit from his side and get carried away with him and Bernie Sanders (Bernie Sanders). ) The health insurance plan is separate from the Green New Deal. “
CMC Markets chief market analyst Michael Hewson (Michael Hewson) said: “If last night’s presidential debate should be information and education, all he did was confirm America’s political credibility deficit, Trump as president and Democratic candidate What Biden did can only be described as an abusive contest that ignores the facts … The supposedly fierce nature of last night’s debate has raised questions about the results of next month’s election and the possibility of an upcoming stimulus deal “.
Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid, Craig Nicol and Henry Allen said: “This noisy debate is really full of noise, it’s not clear what happened last night. It was President Trump or Biden who changed the course of the election … This debate has little substance and almost no new information. The story of the debate may revolve around the president’s continued interruptions, but Biden can’t stay alive. In addition to arguing, they sometimes insult Trump. Spicy rule “.
John J. Head of Currency Strategy at Saxo Bank Hardy said: “US stock index futures showed considerable volatility during the overnight presidential election debate, first rising but falling sharply after the end of the debate, perhaps because Biden performed better than expected in what was seen as a chaotic debate. Even better. In this way, his considerable advantage in the polls is less likely to be affected in the final elections. “
Sebastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist at Nordea Asset Management, said: “This debate had minimal impact on voters and failed to cause a decisive blow to Biden’s leadership. In the next two debates, the same situation may happen, but the Biden’s advantage is still at risk. “
In general, this is a chaotic and interesting debate. Although Trump has acted more aggressively and Biden is easy to defend and difficult to attack, but because the debate does not provide much substantive content, it is estimated that it is difficult to reverse the two sides. The vote gap. For the stock market, on the one hand, if Biden can consolidate his dominant position, it will help to reduce the volatility of the election results, which will naturally help the market to become more stable, but on the other hand, it is possible that investors don’t like some taxes after Biden takes office. Politics, which will pose a certain threat to the stock market.
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