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In 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a speech at the Red Fort in New Delhi, confidently expressing that India will enter an economy with a total economic volume of $ 5 trillion in the next five years, and its total GDP will exceed 10 in 2032. Trillions of US dollars, making it the third largest economy in the world surpassing Japan.
According to the algorithm of India, the Modi government has achieved an average annual economic growth rate of 7% in the past five years, not only lagging behind other countries, but also exceeding the growth rate of China and has achieved economic growth. “The world’s first achievement.” In other words, it took India 70 years to become a $ 2 trillion economy, but under Mr. Modi’s leadership, the total economic volume has increased by $ 1 trillion in just five years, and will increase in the coming years. five years. 2 trillion dollars is also trivial.
The old immortal Modi has high hopes for his reform of “one country, one tax”, but most Indians are not as optimistic as Modi. Lao Xian can only encourage the Indians: “If we are afraid of difficulties, how can we progress?”
India’s confidence comes from the huge “demographic dividend”. The population of 1.4 billion is the consumer engine of India, and the momentum for future updates is very sufficient. India’s software manufacturing industry is also well known in the world, and Tata Group has also successfully entered the world’s top 500.
Among the Indian population, about 65% of young people are under 35 years of age. This is India’s significant HR advantage, which also attracts giants like Apple and Samsung to invest in India. Although India does not admit to having learned from China, it has created more than 400 special zones in one go and proposed the “Made in India” plan, which envisions turning India into a new “global manufacturing hub”.
However, Modi failed on his first economic answer sheet during his second term. From January to March 2019, India’s GDP growth rate fell to 5.8%, the lowest in five years, and employment opportunities for millions of people were seriously challenged; Modi’s ambitious 7300 km / h high-speed train construction plans were not built in one kilometer; The Indian government’s wonderful GDP calculation method of converting sheep manure and cow manure into fertilizer and calculating it within GDP also causes the international community to seriously question the authenticity of India’s economic data: How much water increases the PDO of India?
Well-known Indian economist Swami criticized Modi for relying on lay people to form an economic governance team. These people do not understand the economy or inform Modi of the gloomy facts in the economic field, which makes Modi “not based on the real economic situation of India”. A clear concept based on reality “and bias in judgment and decision making have led to big empty false slogans of turning India into an economy with a total economy of 5 trillion US dollars in the next five years. “
The Times of India also noted that since the first quarter of 2018, India’s GDP growth has slowed dramatically. Taking into account the depreciation of the currency against the US dollar and inflation factors, GDP growth India actually lags far behind most of the world economy. Body.
If India can reach the growth target of $ 5 trillion in the next five years, its annual economic growth must be maintained at more than 10%. Even the most optimistic Indians cannot believe this. Because since last year, the unemployment rate in India has reached the highest level in 45 years, and at least one in five Indians cannot find a job. Without the effective and quality support of human capital, how far can India’s economic growth go?
To achieve the USD 5 trillion GDP target, Modi Laoxian plans to invest Rs 100 trillion in building infrastructure for the construction of roads, railways, bridges and hospitals. However, India does not have the financial resources to support the construction of infrastructure. At present, India’s public debt amounts to US $ 1.19 trillion and the annual interest expense on external debt accounts for only 26% of India’s tax revenue. The government has no funds to invest in infrastructure.
Modi’s high hopes for “world-class infrastructure construction”: The first high-speed rail line from Mumbai to Ahmedabad with a total length of only 508 kilometers, is scheduled to be completed on August 15, 2022, the Day of the Independence of India. A gift project for the National Day of India. But as of today, only 20% of the project has been completed. In the remaining two years, hardly anyone believed that Lao Xian could complete the remaining 80%.
Old fairy Modi, your time is running out. If you want to reach the 5 trillion yuan goal and become the third largest economy, you have to hurry!Return to Sohu to see more
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