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Original title: Chengdu, Shenzhen and other places to tighten the real estate market regulation, “Golden Nine Silver Ten” or welcome the wave of promotion
Since September, the real estate market regulation policies have been introduced in many parts of the country, and the new financing policy has overlapped and the general trend has hardened.
The reality of the real estate market is a mixed situation. In some cities, landlords turned up frequently and new houses were looted, such as Foshan and Shenzhen; in some cities, transactions and prices fell and continued to be slow.
In this context, real estate companies have adjusted their sales strategies in the fourth quarter. Affected by the epidemic, most of the annual target compliance rate of real estate companies in the first half of the year did not reach half. In the remaining three months, the “nine gold silver ten” has become the key to the “grabbing” of real estate companies.
In early September, Evergrande screamed a 30% off promotion, which was the first chance to get. Given that most of the cargo volume of real estate companies this year is concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the industry predicts that a wave of large-scale property market promotion is coming.
Regulate and increase
Chengdu, a hot spot in the western region, suddenly launched a new policy on regulating the housing market on September 14. The new policy contains 15 items, which cover six aspects that include the strengthening of land market regulation, the implementation of prudent financial management, the support of reasonable self-occupation needs, the improvement of the regulation policies of the land market. housing, strengthening market supervision and monitoring, and strengthening public opinion and guidance.
The key point of the Chengdu regulation “15 new real estate deals” is to adjust the exemption period of value added tax for the transfer of individual housing from 2 to 5 years.
Yan Yuejin, research director at E-House, said the value-added tax policy is a new development in the regulation and control policies of various regions this year. At present, the country that includes Shenzhen, Wuxi, Shenyang and Chengdu has adjusted the policy of value added tax, that is, adjusted from the previous “full 2” to “full 5”.
He believes that similar policies are expected to be easy to adopt and emulate in later venues, which will help prevent quick-in-and-out property speculation and make buying behavior more rational.
In addition to Chengdu, Changzhou also issued a new policy on September 12, which requires that newly purchased commercial homes in the urban area can only be traded four years after obtaining the certificate of ownership; the minimum down payment for the second home loan is 60%.
As a weather vane for the national property market, Shenzhen once again patched up the “fake divorce to buy a house” after the New Deal on July 15.
On the evening of September 10, the Shenzhen Central Branch of the People’s Bank of China, the Shenzhen Supervisory Office of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Municipal Office of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued a document to innovate and establish a marriage information query mechanism to query the marital status of the borrower and the family (including the borrower, the spouse and the number of housing units in the name of the adult child) is used as the basis for the review of the loan and the differentiated home loans are processed.
Yan Yuejin said that, in fact, in the past, fake divorces in Shenzhen were usually done using forged divorce certificates. In other words, the purpose of this type of divorce is to defraud the first set of qualifications for buying a home, so the New Deal needs to track the housing situation for the last three years.
After the marriage information is connected to the Internet, there will be nothing to hide by circumventing the “restricted purchase” and “restricted loan” policies of real estate by falsifying divorce records or obtaining a lower down payment.
Judging from the above policies, the keynote of the regulation is “to support reasonable self-occupancy needs and curb speculative property speculation.” There are areas of moderate hardening and relaxation, but overall hardening is the main focus.
At the same time, real estate financing and capital control are also stricter than ever. On September 14, at a regular briefing by the State Council, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, responded to market rumors of new financial regulations.
He said that the rules of capital supervision and financing of real estate companies have been brewing for almost two years, with the purpose of improving the commercialization, regulation and transparency of the financial management of real estate companies and correcting the expansion behavior blind from real estate companies.
Centaline Property believes that the first half of 2020, when property regulation is the most relaxed, has passed and tighter regulation is inevitable. More than 30 cities are expected to issue property policies with different tightening strengths in the future to maintain market stability.
Price war looming?
Whether it’s tightening regulatory policies or the “three lines” of financing, they have put tremendous pressure on the annual sales targets of several real estate companies, and this year’s “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” have become the key to “grabbing” several real estate companies.
According to the situation of “stepping on the line” of the three red lines, real estate companies will be divided into four levels: red, orange, yellow and green. If all three lines touch the line, it will be red.
Judging from the 2020 mid-year report data, among the 220 A-shares, Hong Kong, and US-listed real estate companies, up to 70% of real estate companies “took a chance,” among which the three red lines of Evergrande, Sunac, R&F and Greenland have been exceeded.
Guo Shiliang, an economist and financial commentator, believes that the tightening of financing rules will have a further test on the cash flow and debt ratio of real estate companies. Real estate companies urgently need to accelerate cash recovery through discounts and promotions in the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” and gradually reduce financial indicators such as the net debt ratio. , Improve the risk control capacity of the real estate company.
On September 7, Evergrande announced that it would offer a 30% discount on 600 projects across the country, initiating the first shot of the “price war” and striving to complete the 200 billion sales target in September and October.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Real Estate, believes that Evergrande, as the leading real estate company in the industry, has been in the habit of offering discounts and promotions for many years. It is the first to start at this node and will be followed by more real estate companies.
On September 10, the market rumored that Country Garden would also have a discount. Country Garden said the company has always maintained stable operating cash flow and currently has no plans to significantly reduce project prices across the country.
However, in some cities and projects, Country Garden still adopted a flexible pricing strategy. On September 13, Foshan Chencun Country Garden Sanlonghui opened for the first time. The official opening price was much lower than the previous price of 26,000-29,000 per square meter. The lowest price was 21,000 per square meter. The discount on the opening day was approximately 9.1%.
Country Garden Sanlonghui is located on Guangzhou Subway Line 7 and Guangzhou-Foshan Ring Road and is planned as a DOT project that integrates commerce, residence and office, with obvious location advantages.
Recently, China Overseas Real Estate, a well-funded state-owned company, has also joined the ranks of preferential home sales, promoting real estate sales through benefits such as a 10% discount, luxury exemptions and subsidies. .
It can be predicted that in the next period of time, various real estate companies will increase their launch efforts, and the number of real estate companies that will follow Evergrande promotions will increase significantly.
In fact, hit by the epidemic in the first half of the year, most real estate companies lost at least two months of sales performance and half of their annual sales targets were not met. Some companies have even lowered their sales targets set at the beginning of the year, and the completion rate has not yet reached the target. Most of the sales pressure is concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter.
According to statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters, the top 50 real estate companies have several trillion in sales volume and sales targets in the second half of the year.
According to Zhang Dawei’s analysis, the economies of various regions are recovering rapidly. For the real estate market, the average recovery level from July to August has exceeded 100% of the same period last year, and many places have exceeded the previous level.
As recent real estate regulation and control policies are relatively strict, the regulation of the real estate market has always adhered to the principle of “housing to live without speculation”. It is not only necessary to avoid excessive growth in house prices, but also to avoid large fluctuations, so it is unrealistic to expect a substantial fall in house prices. Therefore, it can be judged that house prices will maintain a constant and partial decline during the Golden, Nine and Silver 10 periods.
Yan Yuejin also believes that in the fourth quarter there will definitely be sales promotion in the real estate market. Most housing companies will make price concessions and discounts, but there will be no large-scale price cuts.
(Author: Zhang Xiaoling, Chen Shih-Han Editor: Zhang Weixian)
