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Original title: Decision analysis:GBPOnce bounced by a hundred points, did the Anglo-Japanese deal bring a new Brexit situation? Risk aversion still lingers, gold bulls are ready to go
FX168 Financial News (London) News from 15:00 to 22:30, September 11, Friday (September 11) European market afternoon,Dollar indexIt fell, the lowest reached 93.18; Spot gold in the conflict broke the 1950 US dollar mark.
At the beginning of the European market, the most notable is stillEURAfter yesterday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, their communication language did not firmly suppress the recent rise in the euro, and showed that there was no recent major movement in the near future, and the euro rose significantly. The euro once maintained this uptrend during the day, during European time it rose by a maximum of 50 points since the open, but then fell back.
The pound also rebounded from its decline this week after the worsening outlook for Brexit this week, rebounding nearly 100 points from the daily low of 1.2763, but then fell back to around 1.2800.
Although the risk of no Brexit in the UK has become increasingly serious, the news for the day said that the UK and Japan reached a trade deal, which is the first major trade deal after Brexit, that boosts market confidence.
The Financial Times commented that this agreement came at the right time for British Prime Minister Johnson, because negotiations between the UK and the EU are at a standstill and the deadline for the two sides to reach an agreement is approaching. At the same time, trade negotiations between the United Kingdom and the United States were temporarily suspended and the British government refused to grant unrestricted access to American agricultural products.
The British government said on Friday that the deal would create 15 billion pounds of trade between Britain and Japan, but could not give this estimate of a time frame.
Japanese officials described the deal as the UK’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which includes Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico and Brunei. bridge.
Important economic data released for the day includes UK GDP in July. Data shows that the UK economy grew for the third month in a row in July. GDP increased 6.6% that month. But this value is lower than the 6.8% expected by economists, and institutions and experts have warned about the future trend of the British economy.
Fidelity International chief investment officer Tom Stevenson said: “The focus is now on the sustainability of the economic recovery. The August GDP data was driven by the plan to encourage eating out. We already know that. consumption in August since the shutdown began. Consumer spending has surpassed last year’s level, but due to the social differentiation that still exists, some industries are trying to recover. “
“We are not out of the picture. The number of Covid-19 cases has increased again and the government is imposing restrictions on social gatherings, along with the end of the wage subsidy program next month, making the outlook be uncertain. “
“Deteriorating relations with the EU makes it more likely that there will be no deal to leave the EU in January, adding to the UK’s economic challenges and putting pressure on the British pound.”
USA Today announced the latest CPI data. The data showed that the US CPI was 1.3% in August, slightly higher than the 1.2% expected. Institutional comments indicated that the US CPI continued to rise sharply in August, but with the economic recession triggered by the new corona epidemic. During the recovery, a weak labor market can curb inflation. The CPI also rose 0.6% in June and July, but the CPI for the previous three months has decreased due to the closure of companies to slow the spread of the new corona virus to curb demand.
Overall, after gold stabilized at the $ 1,950 mark, the bulls are gaining momentum. Risk factors such as geopolitics, epidemic conditions, and the economic recovery have made the market’s high risk aversion persist.
The market will continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the Wall Street stock market. After yesterday’s pullback, as the last trading day of the week, your performance may affect the direction of the future time period. Also, the US economic stimulus bill that was lowered yesterday was not approved by the Senate. Microsoft announced that they have discovered a new cyberattack against the US elections. Follow-up news will still receive attention.
Analysis of the main currencies:
Euro: The Euro / USD opened at 1.1825 at the beginning of the European market on Friday. It jumped during European time, the high reached 1.1874, and then retraced, the low reached 1.1834. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 1.1766 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1886.
British Pound: In early European trading on Friday, GBP / USD opened at 1.2828. It fluctuates up and down during European time and is currently near 1.2800. Initial short-term exchange rate support is at 1.2704 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.2966.
Japanese Yen: The US dollar / yen opened at 106.17 at the beginning of the European market on Friday. The European session fell as a whole, with a low of 106.07. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 105.96 and initial resistance can be seen at 106.28.
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