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During the period when domestic investors enjoyed the little “May Day” holidays, the global financial market was turbulent and continued the previous high volatility trend. Overall, US stocks fell first and then rose, international crude prices rebounded sharply, precious metals fell slightly, Malaysian palm oil, US cotton, and US beans closed in the agricultural commodities sector, while that American sugar led the increase.
International oil prices soared on the 5th due to the stimulus of a gradual economic restart and cuts in crude oil production. At the close of the day, the June NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures contract rose $ 4.17 to close at $ 24.56 per barrel, an increase of 20.45%. ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract in July rose $ 3.77 to close at $ 30.97 a barrel, an increase of 13.86%. The June NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract rose more than 50% over the holidays, and the July ICE Brent crude oil futures contract rose more than 20%.
Yesterday, the President of the United States, Trump, could barely hide his enthusiasm on social media: “Demand has recovered and oil prices have risen really well!”
The opening of the domestic market is imminent, A-share investors are about to return, and commodity traders will give way to a “long absence” night market. How is the internal market going to digest the changes in the internal and external disks of the long and short “May 1” vacation?
International oil prices recover strongly
As the “king of commodities”, international crude oil is a well-deserved hot spot recently. Recently, the crude oil market began to emerge from a strong, low rebound after the liquidity crisis lifted.
International oil prices soared on the 5th due to the stimulus of a gradual economic restart and cuts in crude oil production. At the close of the day, the June NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures contract rose $ 4.17 to close at $ 24.56 per barrel, an increase of 20.45%. ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract in July rose $ 3.77 to close at $ 30.97 a barrel, an increase of 13.86%. The June NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract rose more than 50% over the holidays, and the July ICE Brent crude oil futures contract rose more than 20%.
At the end of April, the market was concerned about the possibility of negative prices in recent months, and they have moved positions up front, especially the anticipated exchange rate of index funds, causing the main WTI contract to drop to around $ 6.5 / barrel.
“From the disc’s perspective, we believe the time for the consistency panic has passed. There is a chance for improvement in crude oil fundamentals in May, and there are few expectations.” Zhong Meiyan, director of chemical energy at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that from the supply side, April Market-wide supply, especially OPEC, increased. Saudi Arabia’s production in April increased to 11.39 million barrels / day, an increase of 1.4 million barrels / day; UAE production increased to 3.72 million barrels / day, an increase of 290,000 barrels / day; Kuwait also increased 150,000 barrels / day to 2.9 million Barrel / day. Furthermore, the data shows that crude oil production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 70% of OPEC production. Its crude oil and condensate load in April averaged 18.9 million barrels / day, an increase of 2 million barrels / day from March. The sharp decline in demand in April and the increase in supply led to a rapid global recovery. It can be said that April is the worst time for the world crude oil market, but as May enters, the contradiction between supply and demand will ease. Under the OPEC + production reduction agreement, effective May 1, OPEC + will jointly reduce production by 9.7 million barrels / day. Under current agreement restrictions and demand for passive output cuts, supply will tend to decrease marginally.
In addition, on the demand side, countries are increasing their oil reserves, of which India claims to use low oil prices, reserves of 5.3 million tons of strategic crude oil reserves; Trump said the United States is filling strategic oil reserves. India’s demand for crude oil fell by 70% in April, and the current situation is unprecedented in the world. Zhong Meiyan reminded that what should be taken into account is that, although there is still no obvious turning point in the diagnostic data of epidemics abroad, the demand for work resumption and economic restart is accelerating, and it is expected that the economy abroad, especially the United States, India and other economic restarts lead to a rebound in oil prices. .
“In general, the price of oil is treated as a rebound, and the reversal of the fund still needs to be confirmed. Especially when work resumes in the context of a large diagnostic base, the epidemic has the possibility of spreading in a range If there is a second peak, it is forced. Some countries have to adopt the blockade policy again, and the damage to the economy will be more severe than the previous one. ” Zhong Meiyan believes that the expected improvement in the marginal improvement in the international relationship of supply and demand for crude oil has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but sustainability remains to be seen. In addition, there is an improvement in the monthly difference, especially the pattern of deep precipitation in the near and far months may be slower, that is, the recent month has increased more than the distant month, which has led the repair to spread . For the domestic crude oil market after the holidays, there will be a possibility of further opening, but the general need to be cautious.
Differentiation of agricultural product performance
In the agricultural sector, ICE raw sugar led the increase, while Malaysian palm oil fell further.
The price of raw sugar on the external disk of the holiday increased and then decreased, and the overall trend was strong. South China futures analyst Bian Shuyang believes this sharp rebound in sugar prices is mainly based on the following factors: First, crude oil stabilized and recovered as European and American countries began to resume work and production, and in May, oil-producing countries began to implement production reduction plans. The price of crude oil recovered from the bottom, which caused a rebound in the price of ethanol, which caused an increase in the price of raw sugar. Second, the resumption of production in Europe and the United States also led to the expected recovery in demand for sugar. Third, there was a large amount of raw sugar delivery in the May contract. A record, most of the source of sugar delivery comes from Brazil, releasing more pressure in the short term.
“Technically, raw sugar is under more pressure around 11 cents / lb. If short-term sugar prices are going to continue to rise, it may still be necessary to watch the face of crude oil. During the holiday season, the Domestic spot market also performed strongly, increasing by 150-200 yuan / tonne, so the price of Zheng sugar may appear significantly higher after the holidays, but the difficulty of continuing to rise will increase in the future. to change the fiscal period, sugar prices can also make a big wave. ” Bian Shu Yang said.
Holiday horsepalmOil continued to fall, and at the close of 5, the July contract price had dropped below MYR 2,000 / t and closed at MYR / ton 1973. Shi Hengyu, chief vegetable oil analyst at the Institute of Futures Research Luzheng believes that in the context of relatively stable performance of crude oil and CBOT soybean oil, the negative fundamentals of palm oil itself are the main reason for the price weakening. According to the Bloomberg Supply and Demand Data Survey, the market expects total inventory of MPOB-caliber Malay palm oil (including crude and refined oil) to reach 1.89 million tonnes in April, the largest stock in the last four months of the market year. Interpretation is also beyond expectations.
“In addition, data from the SPPOMA survey by the Palm Oil Association of the South show that in April, the production of crude oil in the plantations in the south of the Malay Peninsula increased by 12.74% compared to the same period of the Last month. UOB expects crude oil production to increase 15% -19% month-over-month. It also damages the nerves of the bulls. ” Shi Hengyu said that although exports may show a slight increase, the performance of the substantial increase in production has caused the illusion of the market to be affected by drought last year again to no avail. As the impact of the epidemic continues to play a role globally, Southeast Asia’s exports to Europe, the United States, and India will only weaken. At the same time, before crude oil prices have risen sharply, Indonesian biodiesel production may have been severely affected.
Shi Hengyu said that overall, the fundamentals of palm oil remain weak, which will lead to world oil prices continuing to decline. Currently, there is still a distance from the lowest point in the middle of last year. Unilateral long exposure and operator price should be very low. cautious.
There are differences from the epidemic situation, and the market is concerned that China may suspend the purchase of US cotton. However, I personally believe that the first phase of the agreement will be carried out with a high probability. As the global epidemic is controlled, demand will gradually return to normal,cottonPrices have been improving for a long time. After the holidays, the domestic market may open lower due to the impact of external discs, which is a good opportunity to buy in sauces. Zhou Wenke said.
US stocks decline first
During the “May Day” holiday, US stocks declined first and then rose. US stocks rose for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with the United States and Europe gradually lifting the blockade and restarting the economy to boost market sentiment. Lately, the content of Fed Vice President Clarida’s speech once sank rapidly. At the close, the Dow rose 0.56% to 23883.09 points; Nasdaq rose 1.13% to 8880.12 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.90% to 2,886.44 points.
“When it comes to US actions, due to factors like US President Trump’s retaliation for the epidemic, unsatisfactory US economic data, and the Fed’s statement that the economic recovery will be very tortuous, aversion Market risk has intensified until April. US stocks fell between May 30 and May 1. Driven by higher-tech stocks and energy prices, US stocks opened lower and rose higher. on May 4, with the Nasdaq index leading the way. ” Chang said.
In terms of precious metals, the overall holiday swing has weakened. “The current trend for gold and silver is more tangled, and the general trend is to weaken the swing. The main reason is that the funds have benefited after the price has not exceeded the pressure level. The current net long positions of gold funds are still relatively high, and repeated epidemics have delayed inflation expectations. ” We were unable to advance late. It is difficult for precious metals to have a great upside opportunity in the absence of inflation. Due to the economic recession and extremely loose monetary policy in the world, the downside space is also limited. Therefore, we believe that the future trend of gold and silver will still be primarily based on oscillation and consolidation. Upper and lower space is limited. Consolidation is preparing for the next promotion. In the future, it is appropriate to adopt a diving strategy to buy and run out of the market, “Wang Jun, analyst at Minmetals Jingyi Futures, told the Futures Daily journalist.
From a domestic perspective, Wang Jun believes that due to the suggestion of the President of the United States, Trump, that the trade dispute be restarted, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB has depreciated significantly during the holiday period, which has covered the decline of gold and silver to some extent. After opening, it will be basically the same as before the holidays, and the future trend will continue to depend on the combined effect of the external disk and the exchange rate.
* FINISH *
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