2021: the new corona epidemic will continue to dominate the economic landscape

Original title: 2021: The new corona epidemic will continue to dominate the economic landscape

Affected by the new corona epidemic and its impact on the world economy, 2020 has become a special year. With a deeper understanding of the epidemic, central banks and governments of various countries have quickly and actively formulated strategies to helpmarketRecovered from the worst bear market in modern history. financialversuscoinPolicies have played a key role in 2020 and should continue to support the economy and the market in the coming year.

But it should be noted that the rescueFiscal policyIt also generates mounting debts and strains government finances, so we hope that as the epidemic stabilizes and the economy recovers, fiscal stimulus policies will gradually be withdrawn in the future. The government needs to allocate financial resources more ingeniously and selectively. AndcoinIn terms of politics, currentlyMature marketCentral bank policyinterest rateIf a non-negative number is zero, there is no room for substantial interest rate cuts to ensure economic growth. Even if the central bank can scale up its asset purchases, it will have little effect in stimulating growth.

The global economic landscape in 2021 will continue to be dominated by the epidemic. The speed at which governments control the epidemic will largely determine next year’s economic winners and losers. In this sense, the epidemic in China is under control, as evidenced by the economic rebound since the second quarter of this year. We expect China to continue to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. As for other East Asian economies, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore, if they want to achieve a strong recovery, more than justadministrationA good epidemic requires the help of a rebound in the world trade cycle.

Looking at the United States and Europe, if the government can better balance controlling the epidemic and maintaining economic momentum, economic recovery is possible.to get better. Once the authorities strike a balance between the two, these economies will have enough domestic demand to promote recovery.

In addition, if the vaccine is developed and distributed successfully, in addition to accurate and effective virusestestThey will also contribute to the recovery of global economic activity, but considering the time required to manufacture and distribute vaccines, it isReal economyThe effect may not be effective until the second half of next year at the earliest. Furthermore, not all countries have access to vaccines at an early stage, which also means that the pace of recovery will vary between countries. Looking ahead to 2020, the epidemic triggered an extremely abnormal economic recession, but the process of recession and economic recovery was short and rapid. The economy fell to its lowest point in less than three months and regained most of the ground lost in a quarter.

And looking forward to 2021, we hope the situation improves,jobsLife will gradually return to normal. Among them, the first half of 2021 can be considered as the beginning stage of the new economic cycle, that is, the initial growth stage.borrowBased on past experience, this stage isriskAssets (eg.valuesandcompanyDebt and emerging market debt) are particularly positive. investmentWhen deploying actions, they may want to focus on China, the United States, and Northeast Asia. At the same time, in response to the global economic recovery, they will gradually join Europe, Japan and other regions that have the opportunity to pursue actions in backward regions.

In addition, behind the strong performance of the technology and health sectors this year arelongSupported by the growth theme, it still has considerable investment value. Tourism, energy and bulk commodities severely affected by the epidemicProductOther sectors have the potential to recover as the economy recovers.

(Article source:ValuesTimes Network)

(Editor-in-charge: younannan)