The second 10% race against time: Is it coming before Christmas? AFP and banks are preparing to pay before that date

That there will be a law for a second early retirement of pensions, there will be. It is the only clear thing so far. If the constitutional reform project initiated by the deputies and / or the one presented by the government to stop it and get on a car that was being left out will be imposed, that will begin to clear perhaps from this Thursday, when they vote both in the Senate room; the signs at this point in the day seem to tip the balance in favor of the Executive’s initiative. And if people will be able to collect those funds for Christmas, it will depend on the management of time and the movements of political pieces in this game that is played in Congress and in the Constitutional Court (TC).

But it will also be key whether the AFPs advance payments or not, as they did in some cases with the first withdrawal of 10%. This, considering that the government project establishes that the first half of the payment can be made in a maximum of 15 business days, and the other half, in another 15 business days from the first disbursement. Meanwhile, the opposition reform establishes a total payment in 15 business days.

The foregoing means that, if the AFPs meet these deadlines without advancing payments, either of the two projects must be enacted before December 3 so that at least the first installment of the money arrives no later than December 24. To reach that date, the government’s project has an advantage, since the opposition constitutional reform could take longer in the TC, but in any case it is too optimistic a date. The AFPs and the banks are just preparing to pay before Christmas. The work scenario that they have carried out so far is that in the most optimistic case the reform is approved the first week of December. The administrators understood that if they were even given 30 business days to pay, the ideal is for the amount to arrive before December 25 due to social pressure.

In this way, if the project does not manage to leave before December 3, the AFPs also have in mind to be able to advance payments. But this would not work in case the project is enacted, for example, the same week of Christmas, since there are operational and validation processes that cannot be ignored and that take time.

There is already a precedent of advance payments: in the first withdrawal of 10%, the AFPs began to receive requests on Thursday, July 30, and despite the fact that the deadline for the first disbursement expired on August 13, there were some administrators who began the payments on August 7, that is, one week after receiving the first requests.

But the truth is that it will not be an easy task for the AFPs. First, because they are not entirely clear how the project will turn out, despite the fact that now both initiatives have more points in common than differences. As both projects have had so many modifications, the Superintendency of Pensions has sent the AFPs several “drafts” of norms for the implementation of the withdrawal, since they change over time due to rather operational issues.

From an AFP they reveal that they have not had time to sleep, programming software, the website, and with the changes that there are every day. They comment that any organization under normal conditions would take months to make the software developments, interface, test plans; but there is no time.

The banks are also preparing, and the slogan they have is not to innovate in procedures, that is, in the times that are required for the validation of the accounts of the affiliates who request the withdrawal, and the payroll shipments that must be facts, hopefully, 48 hours before.

The bank also seeks to be more active in communicating to customers, for example, what are the mirror accounts that will enable them to deposit withdrawal funds, how to enter, make transfers, etc. On the other hand, there is a concern about the demand for cash that will be in case the payments are made before Christmas. This, because with the first withdrawal the payments were made in August, which is a normal month in terms of cash management, but at Christmas the number of bills circulating is much higher, so if the withdrawal of 10% is added to the tensions of the systems by the end of the year, the pressure will be greater. More security is also required because there are usually more robberies on these dates.

In the first withdrawal, the Ministry of the Interior was key, as it provided support with special surveillance plans at ATMs and banks. The same is expected to happen this time.