[ad_1]
Faced with this more extreme number, there are players in the market that do not rule out that the decline was less, given that the coronavirus did not hit the first part of the month.
March would already begin to account for the recession expected for this year as a consequence of the impact of the health crisis on the economy. In fact, most market estimates point to a drop in the Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec), official figure to be released Monday.
After knowing the records of different sectors in March by the National Statistics Institute (INE) this morning, those who reported an iIndustry that advanced 0.8% and a trade that fell 9%, the range in which the projections of the economists for the Imacec range from 0% to a drop of 5.1% compared to the month of 2019.
With this, the positive data from February would remain in the past, which seemed to be in a parallel reality in the context in which this year, like the rest of the world, the country is expected to suffer a recession. In the case of Chile, the greatest magnitude since the crisis of the ’80.
In this scenario, March would partially reflect what is coming in economic terms, since the forecasts still do not reach the double digits that are expected for April.
Between the less pessimistic There is the Santander study area, which is still reluctant to assume a negative indicator and projects a zero variation for March. This, despite the fact that they confirm in their analysis that the sectorial figures show a lower internal demand.
From the BCI Studies department, they explain that although coronavirus impacts are “evident”, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) -which was above market expectations- leads them to expect a 1.6% contraction.
In the same line, the Gemines economist, Alejandro Fernández, points out that with the information available, his expectation is that a decrease of 2.4% will be reported on Monday, which “surprisingly” would mean a minor stumble in the economy than the one registered in October.
“It seemed reasonable to assume that the quarantine period in some communes and restrictions on physical mobility across the country would do more harm than the October insurrection. This seems not to have been the case, ”he points out.
With this, in his opinion, the first quarter of the year would have grown “marginally” around 0.4% and would have avoided falling into a technical recession considering the contraction in the fourth quarter of last year.
Who put the accent on deteriorating trade They are more pessimistic when it comes to projecting the March indicator.
“The sectorial figures that the INE gave this morning show the first effects of the health crisis on economic activity. In particular, the drop in retail sales was harsh, which fell by 14.9% per year, where only food lines and pharmacies had growth, “says Coopeuch chief economist Felipe Ramírez, who assumes a decline of 3.6 %
Among the most pessimistic is Security with a fall of 5%. From this institution they warn that the semi-paralysis of the economy that is evident in March is only the prelude to what is coming since “clearly the indicators that we will be learning about this month (April) will be considerably more negative”. This leads them to forecast a 10% drop for April.
->
