“It’s unusual” how close the 2020 presidential election looks to the ballot box four years ago, Washington Times editor-in-chief Charles Hurt said Wednesday on “The Story.”
Hurt responded to a new analysis from the website FiveThirtyEight.com that gave presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71 percent chance of winning in November. Conversely, President Trump just got a 29 percent chance of re-election.
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“If those numbers give you a sense of deja vu,” FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, “it could be because they are very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance. of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) “
“If you look at a lot of those polls, a lot of these polls, it turns out it went wrong in 2016, of course,” Hurt said. “But if you look at those of four years ago and compare them to what we see today, it’s remarkable. It’s sad how similar so many of those interviews are, so many of those models are similar.”
With the choice of Joe Biden of Kamala Harris to be his running mate, Hurt predicted that “today and in the next few weeks we will have a much better sense of where people are in relation to this election.”
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He added that many likely voters are not likely to start paying attention to the election until long after the pundits have played the race well.
“In a year like this,” he said, “where you have a pandemic, you have an economic collapse, you have this uprising, you have many reasons that people are, I think, really do not agree until a little later. . “
