Despite all the complaints about the Southeast Conference and the other Power 5 leagues that have yet to announce a firm decision on the 2020 college football season, the delay obviously has nothing to do with “not wanting to play the soccer”.
The economy is the driving factor, and the SEC, along with Big XII and the Atlantic Coast Conference, stubbornly cling to every possible scenario that would allow every possible game to be played, up to a 12-game season. If that wasn’t the case, we would have heard some sort of decision before the start of the season was only six weeks away. That’s not a criticism of sports commissioners or directors, whose main job is to keep the money flowing. It’s just an acknowledgment that those leagues, like the NBA, NHL, and (especially) the NFL, are big companies. University presidents may have other considerations, but they understand it. No one will stray from money unless there is no other way.
If you need any evidence, it’s the frenzy to guess over Alabama’s September 5 opponent, the USC filler. First, it was Notre Dame. There was contact, but there was no real way to make logistics work on a date when Notre Dame already has a game with the Navy. There has been a lot of talk about TCU, but again that doesn’t seem to have taken root. Then came speculation (rumors first appeared on al.com on Saturday) that BYU would be the next candidate.
The deal is not done, but there are talks in progress. BYU is desperate for the September games and Alabama has essentially exhausted its Power Five options. There’s even a chance that BYU will come to Tuscaloosa in the opening week (they did it in a 1998 single game) even though Alabama’s target date for completing the stadium expansion isn’t until the following week. Part of that equation is determining how many, if any, fans will be able to attend, and whether certain areas could be accelerated to completion or not used for that game.
It’s a lot of effort to find a game on a date if you don’t expect there to be a reasonable chance of you playing on that date. Alabama is in a thornier thicket than most other SEC teams because of the Pac-12 cancellation; most other SEC teams already have a non-conference game plus one on their roster.
If the coronavirus data is especially important, three questions arise. First, will the data really change that much from current levels in a week or two? Second, will a downward trend in the curve lead to yet another disruption of preventive measures causing another increase? Third, how much money, that is, games, are schools willing to exchange in exchange for time, whether it is a delayed start or longer open dates to increase the flexibility of the schedule.
As we have often said, each step is simply a fall into a burrow of speculation. However, the correct wording is this. Major conferences will not make a “choice” not to play. They will play unless they have no other choice.
Get to Cecil Hurt in [email protected] or via Twitter @cecilhurt
