Some parts of California are likely to face new residency orders, perhaps this weekend, as cases of coronavirus erupt across the state and public health experts warn that hospitals could get out of intensive care beds by the end of the year.
In a special soft briefing on Monday, Governor Gavin News said that without interfering with public health and if the epidemic continues to grow at its current rate, the state will hit intensive care capacity by mid-December and exceed capacity by Christmas Eve.
On the last day of California’s worst month, an epidemic is still being predicted. The increase in cases during and after the holiday will be exacerbated in December, public health and political leaders said.
“Red flags are flying in the face of our perceived growth aggression,” Newsme said. “If these trends continue, we need to take action more dramatically, harder than arguing.”
According to the November nickel data analysis, an average of 00,000 cases were reported in the state in the month of November, which is almost three times the rate in October-October and in the month of July, in the previous monthly record, record, 00 cases were registered on that day. In the past week, the average has turned to about 14,000 cases a day.
Cases in two areas also reached record highs in November, reaching a day average of 1,091. The previous summer was at 1,061 a day in August, at the peak of the summer. The region reported an average of 480 cases a day in October-October.
Combined with Thanksgiving gatherings and holiday travel, public health officials expect a second increase in cases in the coming or two weeks. About 10% of people who test positive for coronavirus come to the hospital, public health experts say. So the expected bump in cases will put more pressure on hospitals that are already experiencing stress.
Both California and the Bay Area have hospital enrollment numbers with CO COVID-19 – 7,787 and 820, respectively, as of Sunday. That number has nearly tripled in the past month.
And in a news briefing from his home in Sacramento, where his three children have been infected with the virus, News has linked his family, the governor provided an unsettling forecast for state hospitals.
It currently occupies about 60% of all beds, one in 10 with Covid-19 patients, and will be up to 78% by December 24. But intensive care beds are in very low supply.
Currently about 75% of ICU beds are occupied, about a quarter of them are COVID-19 patients. The state will be at 112% capacity by December 24. The forecast is even darker for some regions: rural Northern California counties will run out of ICU beds this week or so and San Joaquin Valley by mid-December. The state estimates the two areas will exceed capacity in early January.
In a briefing Monday, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. “The high number of cases we’ve seen in the last week and 10 days is still not starting to have an impact on hospitals,” said Mark Galley. “The case is admitted to the hospital in two weeks today, and from there a number of individuals will need serious care: special space, special equipment and special staff.”
Newsom did not provide details on what the new shelter order will look like or which counties will affect it. Galli indicated that the IC would likely affect the counties that are experiencing the most stress on ICU capacity. More than 99% of the state’s population – of the 58 counties – 51 – is at the most restricted purple level. San Francisco and San Mateo counties were relocated there on Saturday, leaving only Marine County in the Bay Area at a low level of administration.
Newsome said the new order, in March, “would be more in line with the stay-at-home order that was familiar to insiders earlier this year.” He said state officials began talking with county health officials about a day or two before Thanksgiving Did, which could best slow down the massively rising boom in California.
With the new order “we are trying to be more specific, more surgical and more prescriptive,” Newsme said, adding that details will be available soon. “This is a dynamic week. An incredibly important week. We will come out in the very near future with some additional information, additional recommendations. “
Already some counties have gone beyond the state blueprint for purple-level sanctions. Los Angeles County issued an order Monday banning most gatherings. Santa Clara County, which vaguely recorded the number of hospitalizations last week, issued an aggressive new order on Saturday that severely limits indoor capacity and requires incoming tourists to be kept separate for two weeks.
Some two area health officials said they supported Santa Clara County’s move and would consider similar orders for their own counties if the numbers continued to deteriorate. In an interview with CNN Monday, Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said she is appealing for state and even federal sanctions as her local hospital beds are being filled.
The county reported on Sunday that 4-hospital people had been hospitalized in Covid-1 with – the highest epidemic, and more than twice as many as just two weeks earlier. About a quarter of these patients are in intensive care.
“We are taking local steps to bring this pervasiveness down, and hopefully action will be taken across the state and nationwide to support us,” Cody said.
After moving to Purple Level on Saturday, San Francisco and San Mateo counties shut down many indoor operations, including church services, museums and movie theaters. San Mateo County has finished indoor dining, the last of two areas to do so. Both counties also came under state curfew until 10 p.m. Monday.
Shannon Bennett, chief scientist at the California Academy of Sciences, said he was disappointed the museum was forced to close under the new restrictions, but he understood the logic. And he said he supports other, targeted measures to slow the spread of the disease in the community.
The forecast for the supply of intensive care beds by the state was particularly unsettling, he said. “We feel excellent right now for ICU capacity. But the virus develops so fast that it can exceed its capacity very quickly.
News shared some brilliant points in its otherwise pleasant briefing, in which California will receive 327,000 doses of the first coronavirus vaccine in the next few weeks.
Developed by Pfizer and the German company Bioentech, it will be the state’s first coronavirus vaccine. Pfizer applied for federalization theorization earlier this month and is expected to receive approval in December.
The first few hundred thousand doses will go to health care workers, but the state’s vaccination committee is still deciding which of them will be preferred. There are approximately 2.4 million health care workers in California.
San Francisco Chronicle staff authors Alexei Kosef and Katherine Hoe contributed to this report.
Erin Olde is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: [email protected] Twitter: erinallday
